Shan Chenjin:5.11黄金是否迎来抄底机会？后市怎么看？尾盘思路

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Shan Chenjin:5.11gold是否迎来抄底机会？后市怎么看？尾盘思路


摘要：美国4monthCPI报告几乎全线溃败，美元惨遭暴击金银强势反弹。周四期金价格收涨0.69%Report1321.8dollar/ounce; Futures and bank gains1.39%Report16.745dollar/ounce.
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--International News Analysis--

周四美元震荡走低，失守93关口。晚间公布的美国4After adjusting the roseCPIMonthly rate recorded0.2%, lower than expected0.3%；4Monthly CoreCPIMonthly rate and4Monthly and quarterly adjustment coreCPI年率也均不及预期。美元遭遇打压，金银趁势反弹，现货黄金一度上冲至1322美元上方。截至收盘，COMEXgoldfutures主力合约价格收涨0.69%Report1321.8dollar/盎司；白银期货主力合约价格收涨1.39%Report16.745dollar/ounce.


U.S.A4monthCPI报告几乎全线溃败，美元惨遭暴击，金银趁势反弹，黄金一度上冲至1322美元上方。伊核协议破裂后，紧张关系仍在持续。沙特外长朱拜尔表示若伊朗重启核计划，沙特也将不惜一切拥有核能力。对金价不利的是不断缓和的朝鲜半岛局势。川普隔夜在推特证实他和朝鲜最高领导人金三胖将于6month12日在新加坡会面。一旦成行，这将是有史以来现任美国总统和朝鲜领导人的第一次会晤。据世界黄金协会数据，4Monthly Global GoldETF持有量增加了72.2吨，达到2481吨，创一年多新高。


此次全球黄金ETF持有量增长主要由北美和欧洲地区的大幅增长带动。因对印度雨季降雨量的预期以及传统婚礼旺季的到来，印度的黄金需求也有望迎来回升。同时南非3月黄金产量同比减少18%。种种迹象表明，黄金还会有一波浪潮，拭目以待吧！


--Analysis of spot gold market--


今日我们亚盘没有操作，一直在观察和思考昨日的突破算是有效突破吗，今日是否会延续的问题。实话说上午的行情并不算太明朗，所以我们会避开一些不确定的机会，去等待属于我们，更好的入场机会。行情走到现在，基本可以确立日内的节奏和后市的行情了：


1.美元高位十字星，外加昨日单阴回落，下破5日均线，测试10日均线反弹。但是整体多头乏力，短线迎来调整，甚至不排除89的美元多头结束再93.5的可能。美元其实前期突破91，我们就提到这波多头去关注92.6-94附近，目前来看高点93.5基本兑现了我们的目标。但是月线级别的空头没变，而且美联储加息周期的背景下黄金震荡回落的节奏没变，所以我认为这波反弹只是大空头中的修正行情。

2.黄金昨日形态类似，而且企稳了1316-1317关键支撑。日内行情我们提到的分水岭，1316-1317是本周低点1304反弹到昨日1323高点的回撤0.618位置，所以日内我们的思路亚欧盘重点观察，跌破此位继续看弱势整理。不破此位保持偏强整理，看进一步震荡反弹。而且形态走法和昨日类似，亚盘整理，欧盘小幅回撤（昨日欧盘1315reach1311，今日1322reach1318），然后美盘继续反弹。

美元回调破昨日低点，亚欧盘震荡回落，那么晚盘反弹继续空。而黄金1304-1311-1318-1322形成上行趋势线支撑，同时行情和昨日形态类似，亚盘整理，欧盘小幅回撤反弹出新高，那么晚盘回撤跟多为主。关注1322-1321的回撤入多机会，止损1317Target to see1327-1328Breakthrough Look1332Near.


Opportunities sprout amidst opposition, erupt amidst discussions, and shatter amidst cheers. The market is running, with trends emerging between long and short positions, and direction determined by ups and downs. A trend market is unlikely to end in a short period of time. If it ends quickly, it is not a trend at all. People often suffer from greed and want to seize the highest or lowest point in the market, which leads to missing the opportunity to enter while waiting for the best point. This is a problem that all investors have. Profit is equal to a good idea combined with a good method. No matter how good the idea is, if the operation method is not good, it will be in vain. Pursuing gains and selling losses is a skill that many people are good at, but taking advantage of the situation to increase positions is like walking on thin ice and being afraid. This is a typical operation mode of not being able to hold on to the right and holding on to the wrong. Profit starts with changing one's mindset. Don't do things you don't understand, don't chase after high-risk ones, don't pursue overnight wealth, don't expect to always take profits. The mentality naturally becomes calm, and the right decisions are made when the mentality is good. No one can make good decisions when they are emotionally excited.


Author of this article: Shan Chenjin


Author's Message: A broad view and appointment, thick accumulation and thin hair!


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The above content is for reference only. Investment carries risks and caution is required when entering the market.