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Sincerely open:5.3晚评黄金多头尚有一线生机?原油或将进一步走低

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  简单的KLine


But it contains traces of game theory


Following the trace of operation


Find the direction of the trend


And grasp the direction


And seize the future
Sincerely open:5.3晚评黄金多头尚有一线生机?原油或将进一步走低116 / author:Sincerely open / PostsID:1118467
  周四亚洲交易时段,美元兑一揽子货币走低,而金价则实现反弹。美联储周三如期按兵不动,会后声明显示,预计通胀率将在中期内达到委员会对称性的2%目标附近。笔者程华志认为,美联储会后声明没有一些人预期的那么偏鹰,这令美元多头感到失望。本周剩余时间内,市场将主要关注中美贸易谈判的进展以及美国非农就业报告。


  关于周五将会公布的就业报告方面,这是本月最重要的美国数据。除了就业岗位变动和失业率之外,投资者也将关注薪资数据。美国将于周五公布4月非农就业报告。接受海外权威媒体调查的经济学家的预期中值显示,美国4Monthly non farm employment is expected to increase18.5Ten thousand, the unemployment rate is4.0%。除了非农就业岗位增幅和失业率之外,投资者也将关注薪资数据。外媒调查显示,美国4月平均每小时工资月率料增长0.2%Last month was an increase0.3%; U.S.A4月平均每小时工资年率料上涨2.7%,上月也为增长2.7%。
Sincerely open:5.3晚评黄金多头尚有一线生机?原油或将进一步走低513 / author:Sincerely open / PostsID:1118467
  gold方面:从昨日的消息面来看,小非农ADP数据公布值大于预期,将意味着明日非农数据较大概率偏向利空,而目前市场对非农数据的预期也是利空黄金,如此一来,黄金理应还有下行的可能。不过,犹如诚至金开在昨日文中所说,市场的一贯作风是卖预期,买事实,所以,我们依然不能排除金价会在明日非农行情中,出现强势反弹的可能。再说美联储利率决议和政策声明,虽然令黄金呈现出过山车走势,但在ADP数据利空的前提下,都未能下破千三关口,这就有利于多头进一步反弹。总之,两者的影响,打消了市场的担忧,加上以中东局势、中美贸易战、以及通俄门为首的风险事件助推,相信黄金展开反弹只是时间问题。


  再看技术形态,日线方面,隔夜以长上影线报收一根小阳,高点刚好触及短期均线附近,未能形成有效突破,体现出上方压制的强劲,不过,由于多头上探之后,短周期指标下行势能放缓,短期均线也出现拐头向上迹象,加之千三关口的守稳,下方支撑逐步上移至1305一带,因此,日线不宜过分看空。4小时上,今早间的反弹,令价格有效上穿短期均线,目前运行于上方,且短周期指标呈金叉向上形态,所以,多头理应有上探1315一带的动能。整体来说,诚至金开认为千三关口经过连续测试后,已经有了形成底部的根基,只是鉴于非农数据当前,市场观望之心较为浓厚,不过,对于非农数据的预测,我个人偏向于黄金会借此上涨,总之,千三不破,看涨思路不变,日内操作也需要坚持以低多为主。
Sincerely open:5.3晚评黄金多头尚有一线生机?原油或将进一步走低919 / author:Sincerely open / PostsID:1118467
  crude oil方面:周三(5month2The Asian market opened in the morning67.47dollar/桶后震荡上涨,欧市油价转短时间盘整后下跌,美市开市后油价延续下跌,随后EIA原油库存数据公布(数据利空),油价激烈震荡录得日内最低66.95dollar/桶后转涨,多头突然发力油价震荡上涨,录得日内高点68.14dollar/桶,随后油价小幅下跌,终收于67.93dollar/Barrel, up0.68USD, increase1.01%。虽然美国原油库存和产量双双增加给油价带来了较大利空压力,但伊朗核协议危机仍笼罩在油市上方,这令目前油价韧性十足。


  油价隔夜逆转走升,录得带上下影线的阳烛。目前可见动能指标仍看多,RSI维持在高位,看涨的MA(20)仍将提供支持,油价料维持震荡偏多走势。4小时图上油价一度跌破了MA(100)支持,但随后反弹至该位上方。保利加通道开口扩张,RSI维持在中线附近,短期阻力看向MA(50)68。小时图上看今日亚市开盘后,油价小幅震荡走高,阻力水平为昨高68。综合来说建议在67关口上方做多,目标指向68and68.20。


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Only the departure


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Only through hard work


Only then can we achieve brilliant success


Only sowing


Only then will there be gains


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Attention: There is a review process for online releases, and the intraday market is volatile. The above analysis does not provide specific entry points, and it is recommended for reference only. We assume the risk ourselves. Investment carries risks and caution is required when entering the market


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​Sincerely open:5.3晚评黄金多头尚有一线生机?原油或将进一步走低19 / author:Sincerely open / PostsID:1118467
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CFAChartered financial analyst has served as a special contributor for multiple financial portals and a first-class investment analyst for National Gold. WeChat:czjk889  QQ:1410739556
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