Shan Chenjin:5.2美元上涨挡不住，黄金日内走势分析及策略

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Shan Chenjin:5.2美元上涨挡不住，goldAnalysis of intraday trends and strategies


Summary:昨日，现货黄金继续大幅下挫，美市盘中最低下探至1301.51dollar/盎司，本周金价已连破1320and1310关口，进一步考验1300心理大关。美元周二继续飙升，美元指数已破92Pass, highest touch92.57，美元的大幅上涨对黄金构成很大利空。

--International News Analysis--

Thursday Beijing time02:00Federal Open Market Commission(FOMC)将公布利率决议及政策声明。在3月份加息后，市场普遍预期由主席鲍威尔(JeromePowell)领导的美联储决策者们本周将保持政策不变。由于此次会议结束后不会有最新的经济预测，也不会召开新闻发布会。因此，投资者将密切关注会后声明措辞。如联储的鹰派论调为6月加息做好铺垫，可能会推高美元，并拖累黄金跌穿1300USD.


3月份的货币政策会议后，美联储曾表示将‘继续逐步’加息，可能会在今年再加息两次或三次，2019年加息三次，2020年加息两次。市场自此以后定价今年还有三次升息的可能性更高。目前市场的定价显得较为合理，因此要进一步推升美元，美联储本周的声明需要提供新鲜的鹰派言论。但目前越来越多的数据和声明表明今年恐再加息3Times.


另外，对于美元，多头有点势不可挡，尤其是在当下美联储稍偏鹰的的情况下，并且在扩张性财政政策的帮助下，美国经济数据表现强劲，与此形成对比，外界对全球其它地区经济能否进一步加速的担忧日益增加。而在近期的强势上涨后，美元本周有望进一步走强，尤其是在大规模的空头回补之下。


--Analysis of spot gold market--


交易中存在这样一个现象，认为价格连续回撤出新低，这反而要去多，殊不知当一点反抽都不见的时候，布局多是没有任何意义的，美盘之所以建议1310-1309直接空是考虑到两方面，其一，前一日弱势回撤收盘，并且日内欧盘呈现回撤，这就奠定晚间的弱势格局，其二，欧盘连续破底拿下前一日的低点，并且美盘前无反抽，那么美盘则有望先修正在回撤，因此这也是建议空单仅限8-10点可执行的原因，最终空单如期获利，而关键还是在于执行力！弱势当中没有出现反抽之前莫要有多的念想，和市场对着来意义不大，交易考验更多的是人性的弱点，有人说木偶心态才能在这个市场获利，但也不完全是如此，该坚守的继续坚守。


今日来看，周二大幅回撤，收盘破日线前期低点，当价格远离支撑或阻力，这是有效的破位，那么今日需要继续空，而位置方面可参考凌晨反抽的高点以及前期顶底转换阻力，布局时间段放到午后，当然早间触及阻力亦可布局，午后则是等待时间点到达后再去布局；今日最佳阻力位1309附近，早间或者午盘触及可以空，破1315Stop loss, target view1303-1302一线，但价格未必会给到进场，这就需要等待午后直接布局，凌晨反抽的高点1307，午后压制在1307之下空一次，目标看1296-1395一线，短期不建议多，出现有效反抽后再去考虑和布局！


How to correctly stop loss in spot investment?


众所周知，投资是兼具收益与风险的，因此，在交易的过程中就会存在产生亏损的可能性。为了更好地控制风险，降低损失，投资者就要学会采取止损措施。尤其是目前黄金面临风险区域，止损更是重中之重，以避免爆仓情况出现。那么，现货贵金属投资如何正确止损呢?


1Treat stop loss with a calm attitude


Stop loss is one of the main measures for precious metal investors to manage risks. From an operational perspective, although investors have no errors in their thinking and principles, the execution results of anything are probabilistic and difficult to guarantee 100% accuracy. Secondly, the establishment of the stop loss principle also needs to be continuously improved, and corresponding measures should be taken according to different situations. Therefore, the existence of stop loss is of great significance in the operation process, and regardless of the outcome, investors should strictly adhere to it.


2Execution of stop loss awareness


In general, investors should set a stop loss point before entering the market and immediately execute it when the actual situation matches the stop loss principle. Do not hold a lucky mentality and delay the stop loss with various excuses, as this will only cause losses to continue to expand. Therefore, investors should adhere to less thinking and more action when executing stop losses to avoid making incorrect judgments due to excessive thinking. You should know that the issuance of stop loss signals is not something that investors think of themselves, but rather a manifestation of objective facts. Therefore, it is right to firmly execute them.


3Stop loss thinking needs to be improved


As a qualified investor, stop loss should be viewed more thoroughly, because in a sense, stop loss can help everyone avoid greater losses, but it itself cannot generate profits. For investors, the success or failure of stop loss is a thing of the past. What is important is the next step. Investors must adjust their mindset in a timely manner and develop a more comprehensive and scientific investment operation plan after the stop loss, in order to improve accuracy and reduce the probability of stop loss recurrence in the next step.

我们不是外科大夫，但做着外科大夫的事。有时候的预测，就如手术刀一样准，有时候，手抖也会碰到心脏。弱势中，你既不要担心阳线的出现，也不要害怕什么跌太多。有人说：跌这么多了，还能跌吗，其实很简单，你不相信要跌，行情就一直跌，有一天你不想做多了，认为自己错了该掉头空，那么行情自然会到头。这就是心里的零界点。当你内心无法承受的时候往往击垮你，也就是到头日。这就是为什么很多投资者一直多，行情一直跌，有一天做空了，却涨了。


Author of this article: Shan Chenjin


Author's Message: A broad view and appointment, thick accumulation and thin hair!


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The above content is for reference only. Investment carries risks and caution is required when entering the market.

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