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NFX 品汇国际:美元冲高回落,涨势难以持续

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Market Review
  在周二的foreign exchange市场上,美元呈冲高后回落整理的走势,美元指数最高上涨到91.08,最低下跌到90.70, closing at90.76。欧美最高上涨到1.2245,最低下跌到1.2182, closing at1.2237。
United States10年期国债收益率一举突破3%这一“马奇诺防线”,被视为利好美元。不过,美元指数并未因此大幅攀升,仍维持在日低略上方交投。10年期国债收益率和美元并非总是同步,比如前者自去年9月至今上涨近100个基点,而在此期间美元却跌跌不休。但如果美债收益率继续走强,而欧、英、日央行也不能提振政策转强预期的话,美元近日的走强可能仅仅是一波涨势的开始。
  随着近期公布的美国经济数据向好,在经济增长和就业稳定的同时通胀前景增强,提振了美联储更快步伐加息的前景,美国债券收益率节节攀高。美国10年期国债收益率关键阻力位在3.05%Instead of3%这一心理关口,但相信即使触及3.05%也不会引发抛售恐慌。预计短期内,在欧洲央行利率决议等重大数据公布之前,美国10年期国债收率不会继续走高,但其波动性仍将继续。
从技术上来看,美指周二一度突破91.00整数关口的阻力,但受阻在91.10之下,收盘在90.76,意味着美元短线有可能反弹后保持回调的走势。
[Trading Strategy]
US dollar index: can be found in91.00—90.50Sell at the upper limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit25Point stop loss, with the target at the lower limit of the range.
Euro/USD: can be used in1.2280---1.2200的区间下限买入,有效破点40止损,目标在区间的上限。
GBP/USD: can be used in1.4020---1.3930Buying at the lower limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit40Point stop loss, the target is at the upper limit of the range.
USD/Ruilang: You can find0.9810---0.9750Sell at the upper limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit30Stop loss at one point, with the target at the lower limit of the range.
USD/Japanese yen: can be used in109.10---108.20Sell at the upper limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit40Stop loss at one point, with the target at the lower limit of the range.
AUD/USD: can be used in0.7640---0.7580Buying at the lower limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit30Point stop loss, the target is at the upper limit of the range.
USD/CAD: Can be used in1.2860---1.2790Sell at the upper limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit40Stop loss at one point, with the target at the lower limit of the range.
  gold: Can be found in the1339.00---1325.00Buying at the lower limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit5美元止损,目标在区间的上限。
白银:可以在16.85---16.55Buying at the lower limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit0.15美元止损,目标在区间的上限。
Today's Key Financial Data and Events
(澳大利亚因澳新军团日休市一日)
① 16:00 Switzerland4monthZEWInvestor confidence index
② 22:30 From the United States to4month20Day and WeekEIAcrude oilstock
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