Shan Chenjin:4.18黄金为何暴跌暴涨？今日走势分析

[paragraph]
Shan Chenjin:4.18gold为何暴跌暴涨？今日走势分析
​

Summary:Tuesday(4month17day)金价小幅收涨，虽然盘中一度下跌近0.6%，但此后逐渐反弹并录得上涨。虽然美元指数及美股均有所表现，对金价构成压制。但潜在贸易战及其他不确定性因素仍为避险资产黄金提供支撑。

黄金周二为何暴跌？


昨日傍晚中国央行表示:中国央行从2018year4month25日起定向降准,decline1个百分点。这一消息对人民币不利,对美元有利。所以昨晚黄金价格盘中最低跌至1337.36。昨日美联储官员威廉姆斯表示:薪资正在增长,且增长动能持续。预计明年美国失业率达到3.5%,逐渐加息路径减少了经济过热的风险,美联储应持续其逐渐加息路径。预计2020年前中期利率将在3-4%区间。注意一点，市场几乎已经消化今年美联储再次加息两次的预期，目前来看，美联储态度或依然维持渐进式加息的路径。


黄金周二为何暴涨？


上周以来，叙利亚疑似化学武器袭击事件，引发美国、英国、法国对其发动袭击，造成中东局势空前紧张，避险情绪推动金价一路走高。但周一中东局势并未进一步恶化，叙利亚局势的缓和限制了黄金的涨幅。同时美对俄制裁出现转机，美国总统特朗普下令推迟宣布新的对俄制裁措施，美俄近期的紧张关系有望缓解，这又进一步的限制了黄金的上涨。正当市场以为避险会慢慢消退之际，特朗普又开始搞事。昨晚特朗普在推特声称中国和俄罗斯趁着美联储加息玩“货币贬值游戏”，称此举“不可接受”。特朗普这一言论将助燃正在发酵的中美贸易争端，使得逐渐消退的避险情绪再次燃起。事实上人民币与卢布在过去的几年里一直都在升值，特朗普此举或许表明美元太过强势，另外美国商务部封禁中兴一事已成事实，此举意在给中国施压，以求在谈判桌上拿到更多的筹码，后续关注中国商务部的动作。


--Analysis of spot gold market--


周一博文我们对上周行情做了复盘总结，而且周末我们花费了很多时间去手绘K线图研究总结。简单说上周黄金走了碎阳之后的放量大阳线，美联储会议纪要偏鹰言论下急跌，非趋势行情中碎阳放量大阳之后往往不延续的急跌，周五又是一个震荡反弹的中阳，来回的洗盘反复。突破了日线三角整理上轨压力，但是没有改变三个多月的洗盘反复，所以当下行情的主节奏依然是整理。而crude oil五连阳，典型的反转结束前面两周弱势调整之后走强，重新回归强势，只不过周四周五高位区间偏强整理，多头有所乏力。


这周黄金行情符合我们的预判和操作，周一并未受到周末叙利亚战争而避险买入，令市场大出意外。亚欧盘震荡反弹，看似很强，美盘冲高1350午夜回落，次日延续走弱。昨日同样亚盘整理，欧盘急跌回落，美盘反弹。整体两日走了1350-1338的区间整理，我们周一1350下做空，周二1338-1337上做多，思路还是很对的。

大整理之下，反复必然是当下行情的的主节奏和形态。但是如果一定要给这个整理价格方向，我认为整体偏强，震荡向上，低点不断上移。周一冲高1350回落，周二探底1338反弹，基本亚欧盘的行情都没有在美盘得到延续。那么今日依然先关注上方1350-1348Pressure, Below1340-1338支撑。所以昨日布局的1340/1339多单我们过夜让带1348止盈位成功到位，今日早盘小时线连阴回撤，继续看反复，日内黄金暂时思路关注1350-1339section.


Why can't you hold onto the profit order while I can?


1.The overall structure and framework of the market are not clear, and there is no overall prediction and thinking to follow the market. So I don't know the direction of the future development of the market, so when the market falls, I am bearish, and when it rises, I am bullish, and my thinking is constantly changing. Simply put, it's just that the strength is not enough, and without a particularly clear teacher's guidance, it's natural that if there are slight fluctuations, you won't be able to hold onto the order.


2.The position is too large and there is no good awareness of fund management.


Heavy warehouse, full warehouse, I'm afraid no one can hold onto the order unless you don't care about the outcome, don't care about the money, only care about the process of stimulation. Learn to have a good risk control awareness, control positions well, and not exceed10-15%, general5-8%Strict stop loss measures for light positions will gradually improve everyone's mentality.


3.flighty and impetuous.


Don't make an order, enter in a hurry, make an order, exit in a hurry. If you stare at the market, you won't move your eyes. If you short, you want the market to fall, and if you do too much, you want the market to rise immediately. All profits and wealth depend on time to accumulate.

Everyone will have moments of instability. When the support for rising or breaking, they will pursue the rise, and when the resistance is broken, they will kill the fall. It is not clear which is right or wrong, and everyone knows that capital preservation is the best option. However, we are not here to play in this market. Profitability is my goal, your goal, and the goal of the entire market. It's not difficult to break even and make a comeback. Timely stopping losses and profits is the test of people's hearts, but the joy of stopping profits cannot outweigh the heartache of stopping losses. Simply put, it is the greed of human nature. So your thinking is your direction, and if you mess up your thinking, you have already handed over the direction of your funds to market manipulation.


Author of this article: Shan Chenjin


Author's Message: A broad view and appointment, thick accumulation and thin hair!


σ-σ：330-5379-776V-Letter:scj366


The above content is for reference only. Investment carries risks and caution is required when entering the market.