慕容鑫：原油强势高开，日内关注64.0关口压制情况

Murong Xin:crude oil强势高开，日内关注64.0关口压制情况

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4.10Analysis of crude oil market:

       基本面上油价周一盘中强势反弹，因中美贸易争端担忧情绪暂时缓解，同时美元承压也为油价带来了有效提振，不过市场仍在担心美国国内原油产量攀升。有消息称美国原油产量已在今年超过沙特，预计将在2018年超过俄罗斯，成为产油量世界第一的国家；随着美国产量的增加，其出口在扩张的同时将推升美国在国际市场的份额；当前油价水平以及页岩油处于低位的盈亏平衡价将使得美国原油产量在2018年底远远超过其它产油国。所以油价仍存下行风险。
       技术上原油日线走势震荡台阶下跌的形态，每一次的反弹到趋势之后总会出现更加强烈的下跌，不过还未跌破关键支撑，大方向上行的结构还未逆转，若要继续下行仍需借助消息面的刺激；4小时线上来看昨日K线连阳上涨并破下行通道，不过仍处61.7-64.0宽幅震荡之间，早盘再次走高近0.8美元行情，如要继续追不太可能，上行空间不大，且上方阻力重重，日内关注64.0关口压力情况。
      综合来看，虽然贸易战缓和，但仍是持久战，加上美原油产量上升，原油本周行情继续看空的概率较大。目前原油强势走高，日内可先看震荡，毕竟技术上有回调修正需求，操作不能盲目跟进。

     4.10日内原油操作布局
       建议投资者在反弹64.0Short nearby, stop loss0.4US dollars, look at the target63.2-63.0frontline; Below63.0Long nearby, stop loss0.4US dollars, look at the target63.8-64.0frontline　

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