Shan Chenjin:4.3亚盘持续盘整，黄金欧盘走势分析及策略

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Shan Chenjin:4.3亚盘持续盘整，gold欧盘走势分析及策略


近期的美国经济数据表现不一，通胀指标PCE的增速与市场预期相符，但消费者信心有所回落，市场等待3月非农，以观测就业市场以及薪资增长的动态。目前市场预期美国3Monthly non farm employment opportunities are expected to increase18.9万，上月大增31.3Ten thousand. U.S.A3月失业率料下滑至4.0%Last month was4.1%。


不过投资者最关心的还是薪资数据，因为这与美联储加息预期息息相关。若薪资数据高于预期，可能提升外界对美联储更快加息的预期，从而对美元构成支撑。周三(4month4day)还将发布美国3monthADP就业人数变动。ADP就业人数也被称为“小非农”，和非农存在较强的正相关关系，交易员往往利用ADP报告来“校准”周五非农报告的预期。


另外，鲍威尔将在北京时间4month7日凌晨，就经济展望发表演讲。本周还有三名美联储FOMC票委将发表讲话，包括美联储理事布雷纳德、堪萨斯城联储主席梅斯特和亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克，投资者有望从中一窥利率前景线索。分析师指出，假如鲍威尔因近期通胀数据走高而发表措辞鹰派的言论，则可能会提升外界对美联储更多次加息的预期，从而利好美元，利空贵金属。


单晨金小结：从贸易形势来看，历史经验显示贸易分歧往往利空美元，市场对贸易战威胁的解读也认为这不会提振美元；从货币政策来看，全球的经济发展势头良好，欧洲央行和日本央行退出货币刺激政策的进程已经将欧元和日元兑美元分别提振5.9%and2.7%，这表明未来美元将不会是一家独大，同时市场也在逐步消化美联储今年加息3-4次的预期，一旦完成，黄金将会开启年内的首次牛市。短期内，虽然黄金缺乏方向性，但基本面上利多的因素要多些，目前来看就是黄金能不能借贸易战及非农跳出区间，当然肯定是向上突破。


--Analysis of spot gold market--


From major cycles4小时的走势来看，近期更多的话题，贸易战升温，黄金多头是否卷土重来，昨天晚间基本上实现了，短期拉升最高触及1345，空头防不胜防，特别是大阳线之后的回撤，这一波走势不容小觑，笔者还是坚信自己的思路，回撤低多，再加上大周期均线指标MA5Clearly wornMA10The moving average is located at0Run above the axis, in conjunction with the indicators in the attached diagramMACDJincha continues to increase its volume,4小时看好震荡上行的走势。

从短期小时线的走势来看，小时线连阳之后，价格不断刷新高点，短期的回撤，不能证明什么，当然如果回撤幅度超过5美金以上或者收取大阴线，跌破布林中轨，就要谨慎去做多，再加上近期贸易战的影响，短期避险情绪升温，多头卷土重来，黄金守住1336继续看上行趋势，短期均线指标MA5Clearly wornMA10The daily moving average is located at0轴上方运行，配合附图指标MACD金叉持续放量，小时线看好震荡上行走势。综合近期的走势来看，今日上方重点关注1345-1347-1350Resistance level, pay attention below1336-1332-1329底部支撑，操作方面回撤布局短线多。


单晨金综合来看：昨天亚欧盘一直维持高位盘整，再加上亚盘的高开，欧盘没有回撤，而是走出震荡上行的走势，今日需要重点留意1336底部支撑，这一线也就是今天比较理想做多点位，再加上连阳之后，回撤也是很正常，不过如果没有给到理想点位，自己把握时间点提前介入多单，亚盘一直盘整，欧盘强势是关键，多空分水岭1336，今日触及这一线一定要执行一次短线多。


--Suggestions for spot gold operation--


1，若亚盘持续维稳在1339上方，或者欧盘突破1344的情况下，美盘前跟随多一次，看1350-1355；


2，而若亚盘回落，欧盘连续回落，日线形成一阳一阴，就按照震荡布局，美盘再做短空参与，关注1344reach1330section.


短线炒黄金交易原则:


首先，要树立薄利的交易思想。日内短线不能贪，给自己规定一个合理的利润空间，达到目标时要立即出局，然后重新评判市场，耐心等待市场给出的下一次交易机会。


其次，尊重市场，顺应市场。交易员在市场面前，要永远保持自己谦卑的姿态，在市场面前，我们永远是无足轻重的。


第三，要精选符合自己交易原则和自己熟悉的交易机会，不打无把握之仗。日内超短由于获利很薄，要靠出手的成功率获胜，这一点尤其重要。


最后，跟其他类型的交易方式一样，控制风险也是日内超短的重中之重。打个比方，日内超短就好像打游击，以获得实利作为交易的出发点和最终依归，打得赢打，打不赢立刻撤退，保存自己的有生力量，等待下一次机会。

The alternating seasons of winter and spring always catch people off guard, with extremely fast temperature changes, which precisely reflects the transformation of seasons. It is said that the four seasons are becoming increasingly unclear. After winter, I don't know what to wear in spring, but summer has arrived. At the same time, it reminds me of trading. I remember the past trend of gold and silver, which was almost one-sided every day. It seemed that if you woke up later, you would miss out on a lot. However, the current market trend is almost motionless, with no meaning in the morning or evening. The same price, the oscillation cycle is getting longer and the intraday fluctuations are becoming more and more limited. And at this time, it is the real time to exercise. A good mentality lies in two aspects:1When the price remains unchanged, the heart remains still and can tolerate it.2When the price fluctuates, don't panic and can tolerate it. If you are not surprised, you can understand the mystery of market operation. If the market does not move, you will be tempted, if the market moves, your heart will tremble, and if you are afraid of trading, it will only amplify the possibility of errors.


Author of this article: Shan Chenjin


Author's Message: A broad view and appointment, thick accumulation and thin hair!


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The above content is for reference only. Investment carries risks and caution is required when entering the market.