Shan Chenjin:4.2今日起中国对美加征关税，黄金日内走势分析

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Shan Chenjin:4.2今日起中国对美加征关税，gold日内走势分析
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Summary:周一亚市盘初国际现货黄金小幅攀升。上周五欧美交易所因耶稣受难日休市一天，在假期交投清淡的背景下，美元收盘跌破90Pass, report89.964, decline0.14%，一季度下跌2.51%，连续第五个季度收跌。上周黄金高开低走，金价周线下跌1.31%，3Monthly increase0.77%，季度上涨1.88%，连续第三个季度上涨。


--International News Analysis--

中国对美国128项进口商品加征关税


since2018year4month2日起，中国对原产于美国的7class128项进口商品中止关税减让义务，在现行适用关税税率基础上加征关税，对水果及制品等120项进口商品加征关税税率为15%，对猪肉及制品等8项进口商品加征关税税率为25%。现行保税、减免税政策不变。


美元或将延续去年跌势


华尔街日报认为，在多重利空因素的影响下，美元或将继续延续去年跌势。从贸易形势来看，历史经验显示贸易分歧往往利空美元，市场对贸易战威胁的解读也认为这不会提振美元;从货币政策来看，全球的经济发展势头良好，欧洲央行和日本央行退出货币刺激政策的进程已经将欧元和日元兑美元分别提振5.9%and2.7%，而美联储加息3-4次的预期已为市场所吸收。


单晨金小结：贸易战最终的结果肯定是偃旗息鼓，目前中美双方还在角逐状态，从今日中国宣布对美部分商品加征关税开始，预期市场风险情绪重新点燃，除了贸易战的争端外，俄西之间的外交争端同样需要关注，上周俄罗斯外交部宣布将驱逐60名美国驻俄外交官并关闭美国驻圣彼得堡总领馆，最后本周还有非农数据也需要重要关注。我个人还是比较看好2018黄金的表现，在当前股市大幅回调、通胀爬升、地缘政治经历动荡以及全球央行低利率政策或将结束的大背景下，黄金或是更将表现突出。短期内，黄金虽然方向不明，但在多个基本面支撑下，不至于出现深度下跌，但要突破1365高点仍然需要更大的力度。


--Analysis of spot gold market--


上周属于短线的变盘行情，3月初探底1303虚破反弹反复低位整理反弹测试1340未果之后再度回落1307，借助美联储加息迎来反转强势回归1357。看似上上周很强的走势，但是依然未能突破，多次测试1356-1357之后诱多出现单边回落，而后再度走了1357-1308的震荡回落走势。而且我们看到上周典型的形态循环就是亚盘震荡反弹，欧盘遇阻出现回落，美盘延续走低。


周初其实也是比较看好延续1307这波反弹出现有效多头趋势，但是周一周二反复测试未破1356-1357未破之后，我们及时调整思路继续锁定日线大区间整理。所以后半周一路看空做空，思路的及时调整，上周波幅和利润都抓到了。8单止损1单，调仓1Single profit6单。周一1351as many as1356，周二早盘1351-1350as many as1356-1357，周三过夜1341-1340多到位1346-1347，而后出多1341-1342跟空到位1332-1330，晚盘1336继续空获利，尾盘1330-1329轻仓多过夜止损。周四1325Empty again1322-1321。而且上周我们还把之前1322波段多单思路在1345提示了减仓把握利润，同时指出1341空可以尝试波段。

日线高位反复整理，未能借助3月份美联储加息而迎来突破，那么这个整理预计短期还会继续。我们就重点关注下方1308-1306的水平支撑位，上方不断下移的高点连线下行趋势压力。

本周的黄金操作注意几点：


1.日线大区间整理依然是中期主节奏，上方1348-1355区间压力，而下方1308-1306区域水平支撑位。


2.本周非农周，ADP，失业金，非农数据等消息面较多。


3.日线走势图来看，回落往往阴阳交替或者反复整理走势较为复杂，而反弹则多为急速强阳拉高，所以我们要注意这个节奏。


单晨金综合来看：操作上周初先关注1330-1332的压力，如果不破重点考虑本周1332-1306的区间，而如果突破关注上方1336-1337压力，也就是防止不是延续性的回落走势，而是日线阴阳交替反复的震荡回落。日内短线1330-1332，1336-1337Below1322-1320关键压力。

The alternating seasons of winter and spring always catch people off guard, with extremely fast temperature changes, which precisely reflects the transformation of seasons. It is said that the four seasons are becoming increasingly unclear. After winter, I don't know what to wear in spring, but summer has arrived. At the same time, it reminds me of trading. I remember the past trend of gold and silver, which was almost one-sided every day. It seemed that if you woke up later, you would miss out on a lot. However, the current market trend is almost motionless, with no meaning in the morning or evening. The same price, the oscillation cycle is getting longer and the intraday fluctuations are becoming more and more limited. And at this time, it is the real time to exercise. A good mentality lies in two aspects:1When the price remains unchanged, the heart remains still and can tolerate it.2When the price fluctuates, don't panic and can tolerate it. If you are not surprised, you can understand the mystery of market operation. If the market does not move, you will be tempted, if the market moves, your heart will tremble, and if you are afraid of trading, it will only amplify the possibility of errors.


Author of this article: Shan Chenjin


Author's Message: A broad view and appointment, thick accumulation and thin hair!


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The above content is for reference only. Investment carries risks and caution is required when entering the market.