Shan Chenjin:3.29朝鲜致力无核化避险削弱，黄金后市走势分析

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Shan Chenjin:3.29朝鲜致力无核化避险削弱，goldAnalysis of future market trends


Summary:因美元走强对美国经济成长有利，令黄金多头遭受抛售，同时地缘政治不确定性得到缓解，削弱了市场避险情绪，黄金连跌2Day.


--International News Analysis--

美元重返90关口黄金承压走低


中美就贸易分歧或展开协商、以及半岛地缘政治形势改善令避险降温。同时，美国GDP数据靓丽进一步推升美元，昨日美元指数重回90关口上方，刷新5天的高点。经济数据显示，美国2月商品贸易逆差扩大，而美国第四季度GDPIncrease compared to the same period last year2.9%，超过此前预估的2.5%，分析师预期增幅为2.7%。


朝鲜将致力于无核化避险情绪降温


随着朝鲜领导人金正恩在与中国国家主席习近平会谈中承诺将致力于无核化，在此期间，地缘政治的不确定性减弱，投资者对避险黄金的兴趣减弱。


美国总统特朗普对两国领导人在北京会谈后取得进展的消息表示欢迎。特朗普在推特上说:“昨天晚上，收到中国国家主席习近平消息，说他与金正恩的会晤进展顺利，金正恩期待着与我会面。”


单晨金小结：虽然美元的升值可能会在短期内导致金价进一步下跌，但金价仍受到地缘政治紧张局势、股市动荡和贸易战争挥之不去的担忧的支撑。受英国特工中毒事件影响，全球对俄罗斯情报官员的持续反应，支撑了对避险资产黄金的需求。此外，随着投资者风险偏好逐渐消失，全球股市再次出现动荡。股市进一步不确定性继续使黄金成为具有吸引力的避险资产。未来主要逆风因素来源于美国的经济增速情况，若经济表现良好，将提高美联储的加息预期提振美元，从而黄金承压。


--Analysis of spot gold market--


From major cycles4小时走势来看，连续三连阴之后，价格也是不断刷新低点回撤，这个时候就要谨慎去做多，等待趋势明朗，反抽再去布局短线空，宁可错过也不要做错的交易理念，再加上连续收阴，反抽1332这个点位很重要，当然一定要去执行一次短线空，再加上大周期均线指标MA5明显下穿MA10The daily moving average is located at0轴的下方运行，配合附图指标MACD死叉放量，4小时看好震荡下行的走势。

从短期小时线的走势来看，通常情况下，阴线比阳线多，这一种形态只要出现了，反抽就去空，毕竟这是交易中很常见的技术形态，就好比高位十字星，启明星，十字星，这是都是看涨信号，双顶，M顶，MACD背离出现的情况下，空头趋势形态形成，这个时候就不要去看多，要改变自己的交易思路，毕竟行情瞬息万变，做趋势也是一样的道理，这个大家都明白，但是往往做交易，心态比什么都重要，回归盘面的走势来看，今日上方重点关注1330-1332Resistance level, pay attention below1323.5-1318底部支撑，操作方面反抽做空为主。


单晨金综合来看：通常，弱势行情，只要不出现大幅回撤，我们定义弱势整理。回顾昨天晚间的走势，亚盘一直维持1345整理，欧盘回撤破1340，幅度过大，这个时候就要谨慎去对待。再加上美盘GDP数据对美元大幅提振，金银走跌也很正常，但是走出单边下跌，着实出乎很多人的意料，今日重点关注1330-1332的阻力位，前期下跌口1334-1337也很重要，短线趋势面临调整。


Understanding of Shan Chenjin Trading-Reasons for losses in gold speculation


Personally, I believe that gold investment is a good investment product. Firstly, it has flexibility in trading, secondly, the stability of gold, and thirdly, the factors that affect gold are easier to analyze. Gold has been the main carrier of investment and wealth management since ancient times, but currently, domestic gold investors still suffer more losses and less profits. Why? Some people blame the platform, others blame the market, and say some personal opinions


1Lack of understanding of relevant knowledge. I heard that there is a great profit opportunity in this market, and if the broker deceives me again, I rashly enter the market without learning relevant knowledge, and even the trading rules and software usage are not clear. If you want to do a good job, you must first sharpen your tools. Even if you don't understand the resources in your hands, it's difficult to think of losing.


2I have learned relevant knowledge, especially technical analysis, and have a mixed understanding of various indicators and graphics. However, I am not proficient in them, and I am not familiar with them. When making orders, I have a confused mindset.


3Do not have their own trading strategy. The entry position is not suitable, which is not conducive to hanging a stop loss or not hanging a stop loss. A sharp rise and fall in the market is like chasing orders, and the result is always chasing the end of the market. There is no accurate positioning of profit margin before placing an order, and unexpected market conditions can be caught off guard.


4Blindly superstitious about brokers. The relationship between brokers and investors depends on trading volume, so some brokers encourage investors to place more orders, while some brokers have lower levels of proficiency.


5Attitude. Learning to hold coins and wait, being nervous when losing and also nervous when making profits, striving to find favorable factors for oneself through one's own analysis and the opinions of others, and so on.

气温的转变只是瞬间，前几日离开郑州时还冷的瑟瑟发抖，回来突感夏季来袭，满园桃花。而人生的沉淀却需要数年，一直在修炼某块短板，似乎没有看到任何的转变，或许差一次机缘巧合。这和交易是一样的，为什么强调学习？并不是学习多牛，能学到多少，而是你或许能遇到打开窗户的那一刻。很多人，在成功的门前憋了很久，始终无法参透，但参透或许只是一句话，一次思维碰撞。就会进入到下一个境界。大早上，一个学员发来问候，说因为昨日的分析参透了最近迷惑的问题。这就是一次进步，看起来对于一次交易不是很重要，但或许对于下个阶段自己的成长，是一次里程碑。犹如crude oil的上升，3month26号只是一个普通的日子，如果过三年，五年再来看，也就是因为这一日，给中国的原油futures来了一个开启的里程碑。成长不是气候，说变就变。成长需要沉淀，需要参透，需要失败，需要鼓励，也需要一次次的碰壁。过去的罪，都是未来的福。


Author of this article: Shan Chenjin


Author's Message: A broad view and appointment, thick accumulation and thin hair!


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The above content is for reference only. Investment carries risks and caution is required when entering the market.