Shan Chenjin:3.28美元反弹黄金大跌，晚间走势分析

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Shan Chenjin:3.28美元反弹gold大跌，晚间走势分析


Summary:Wednesday(3month28day)欧市盘初，黄金futures在触及日内高位1346.4美元后出现回调，。上个交易日，随着美元走强，全球金融市场风险偏好重燃，黄金在盘中触及近六周高位后回落，期金在美市盘中较高位跌去逾17美元，不过紧张的地缘政治局势仍然对金价构成支撑。


--International News Analysis--

受有关中美协商讨论避免贸易战的报道提振，隔夜美股高开，令黄金的避险需求下降，同时美元上涨也增加了黄金的持有成本，导致日内金价跌破1340美元关口。目前，特朗普对贸易关税的态度已显得较为温和，他周二发布推特称，“美国与很多国家都在进行贸易谈判，这些国家多年来一直没有公平地对待美国，各方都会对谈判结果感到满意”。截至目前，欧盟、澳大利亚、阿根廷、巴西和韩国等经济体均已获得美国钢铝关税豁免。


数据方面，隔夜公布的美国数据喜忧参半。美国1monthS&amp/CS20Recorded annual rate of housing price index in major cities6.4%，高于前值和预期;U.S.A3月谘商会消费者信心指数及3月里奇蒙德联储制造业指数则分别录得127.7and15，双双不及预期。今晚，美国将公布第四季度国内生产总值(GDP)数据。调查显示，美国第四季度实际GDP年化季率终值料上升2.7%Compared to previous values2.5%有所上升。


--Analysis of spot gold market--


今日的思路我们很明确，早间提到隔夜虽然1341-1340长时间低位整理之后午夜和今日亚盘有所反弹，但是不破1348-1350要继续做空看回落。从目前的走势来看，不排除1307的这轮反弹终结在1357，所以我们隔夜1341-1340多单提示1345-1346平仓之后。欧盘又跟进了空单，当然早上行情比我们预期的还是要弱一些，没到1348-1350附近，而是1347就直接回落了。


本周我们黄金思路把握的很不错，持续连赢。周一的1351as many as1356，周二早盘的1351-1350多又到1357。晚盘1341-1340多单过夜到位1346-1347。今日欧盘1341-1342再度跟空到位1336-1337小利润。

先来看一个现象。2016年初单边多头趋势之后，2月中旬到6月份一直走了将近4个月的整理洗盘，6-7月份单边多头趋势之后，7-10月份又是一个将近3个月的三角整理。2017年同样是这样，2-6Month,8-12月份基本都是反复整理。也就是每年200多美金的震荡上行行情，大部分时间都是在整理反复。所以2018年今年有没有可能从1月份开启的整理，继续几个月，我们也需要关注和思考。也就是中期思路，还是考虑多头行情展开或许没有那么快，继续走日线1360-1307大区间整理思路。晚盘短线继续关注1340-1342区域压力，下方1336-1337一旦跌破将进一步加大回撤去1332-1330。


关于必须要坚守的交易铁律有哪些？单晨金则表示，铁律只有8个字，轻仓、顺势、止损、积累。


轻仓：控制好总仓位与总资金量之间的比例关系是获取利润的唯一法宝。


顺势：以联动性思维面对交易面对所参照的市场。

止损：主动止损和被动止损。


积累：合理控制仓位风险积累更多经验，学会系统化布局来积累盈利，不靠投机来获取盈利。

The alternating seasons of winter and spring always catch people off guard, with extremely fast temperature changes, which precisely reflects the transformation of seasons. It is said that the four seasons are becoming increasingly unclear. After winter, I don't know what to wear in spring, but summer has arrived. At the same time, it reminds me of trading. I remember the past trend of gold and silver, which was almost one-sided every day. It seemed that if you woke up later, you would miss out on a lot. However, the current market trend is almost motionless, with no meaning in the morning or evening. The same price, the oscillation cycle is getting longer and the intraday fluctuations are becoming more and more limited. And at this time, it is the real time to exercise. A good mentality lies in two aspects:1When the price remains unchanged, the heart remains still and can tolerate it.2When the price fluctuates, don't panic and can tolerate it. If you are not surprised, you can understand the mystery of market operation. If the market does not move, you will be tempted, if the market moves, your heart will tremble, and if you are afraid of trading, it will only amplify the possibility of errors.


Author of this article: Shan Chenjin


Author's Message: A broad view and appointment, thick accumulation and thin hair!


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The above content is for reference only. Investment carries risks and caution is required when entering the market.