Shan Chenjin:3.20黄金涨跌互现飘忽不定，短期内仍然震荡偏弱

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Shan Chenjin:3.20gold涨跌互现飘忽不定，短期内仍然震荡偏弱
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Summary:周一黄金摆脱三连跌小幅收涨，因美股大幅下挫，美元再度跌破90关口提振金价。本周除了美联储利率决议及政策声明，白宫动荡不安的政局依旧如“幽灵”一般笼罩市场，另外贸易战持续升温，加上泄密门事件，欧洲局势逐渐稳定等一系列事件令黄金陷入泥沼。


--International News Analysis--

美元面临大麻烦


This week, the Federal Reserve(FED)料启动2018年的首次升息，但料不会强化货币政策声明，上一交易日美元兑多数货币大幅走软，源于欧洲两大利空消息和泄密门事件。


Monday(3month19day)美国方面基本无重要经济数据公布，美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)目前也暂处于静默期，这意味着不会对货币政策发表评论。然而周一美国股市大幅下挫，这令美元/日元承压，但欧元、英镑和加元等风险货币并未受到抛售。


随着上周美国总统特朗普解雇AndrewMcCabe，华盛顿的动荡政局依旧是影响市场的最重要力量。预计未来几周白宫恐还有许多其他高调的人事变动，不幸的是，政治的不确定性依旧笼罩着美联储(FED)的政策。与此同时，其他国家的一些积极新闻也吸引了对这些货币的需求。此外贸易战和泄密门事件如果持续发酵，那么新一轮的避险情绪将会令美元继续承压。


单晨金小结：从历史经验来看，在政治风险上升和金融市场动荡时期，黄金仍是一种有用的避险资产。目前经济增长强劲，美国通胀也在上升。美元仍表现疲软，美国实际利率尽管仍处于低位，但在温和上升。那么在这种背景下，黄金和白银等实物资产应该有很高的需求。面临美联储加息的预期，黄金确实承压，但美联储5次加息之后黄金都完成反转，所以这种卖预期的情况正适合投资者低价买进。并且在当前金融市场持续动荡、政治风险和贸易冲突风险上升的情况下，投资者持有黄金等避险资产也是很不错的决定。


--Analysis of spot gold market--


From major cycles4小时的走势来看，触及反抽拉升之后，幅度有10美金以上，特别是连阳的走势，再加上美联储加息临近，市场必然会迎来一波大行情，拭目以待吧！再加上黄金1307走出V形反转，但是切记一点，这一波反抽如果站稳1325-1326的上方，行情下跌的可能性不是很大，再加上大周期均线指标MA5Clearly wornMA10The daily moving average is located at0Run above the axis, in conjunction with the indicators in the attached diagramMACDJincha continues to increase its volume,4小时看好震荡上行的走势。

从短期小时线的走势来看，触底反抽拉升，幅度超过10美金以上，特别是连阳的走势，针对这一种走势，如果要高空的话，最多5美金的止损，10美金的止盈去对待，行情一但突破1325上方的话，短期趋势面临调整，虽然短期均线指标MA5Clearly wornMA10The daily moving average is located at0Run above the axis, in conjunction with the indicators in the attached diagramMACD金叉持续放量，小时线看好震荡上行的走势。


单晨金综合来看：昨天亚盘震荡下跌，欧盘延续下跌，美盘走出单边上涨，最高触及1318一线，日内上方重点关注1318-1320前期阻力位，美元触底反弹，确实给了黄金有利做空因素，但是在加息之前可以做空，谨防加息之后买预期，卖事实！综合近期的走势来看，后市黄金看好短线空，美联储加息之后大趋势看涨。操作上反抽做空为主！


--Suggestions for spot gold operation--


1Backpumping1320布局短线空，止损1325, look at the goal1313


2Below1313布局短线多，止损1310, look at the goal1319


Understanding of Shan Chenjin Trading-Reasons for losses in gold speculation


Personally, I believe that gold investment is a good investment product. Firstly, it has flexibility in trading, secondly, the stability of gold, and thirdly, the factors that affect gold are easier to analyze. Gold has been the main carrier of investment and wealth management since ancient times, but currently, domestic gold investors still suffer more losses and less profits. Why? Some people blame the platform, others blame the market, and say some personal opinions


1Lack of understanding of relevant knowledge. I heard that there is a great profit opportunity in this market, and if the broker deceives me again, I rashly enter the market without learning relevant knowledge, and even the trading rules and software usage are not clear. If you want to do a good job, you must first sharpen your tools. Even if you don't understand the resources in your hands, it's difficult to think of losing.


2I have learned relevant knowledge, especially technical analysis, and have a mixed understanding of various indicators and graphics. However, I am not proficient in them, and I am not familiar with them. When making orders, I have a confused mindset.


3Do not have their own trading strategy. The entry position is not suitable, which is not conducive to hanging a stop loss or not hanging a stop loss. A sharp rise and fall in the market is like chasing orders, and the result is always chasing the end of the market. There is no accurate positioning of profit margin before placing an order, and unexpected market conditions can be caught off guard.


4Blindly superstitious about brokers. The relationship between brokers and investors depends on trading volume, so some brokers encourage investors to place more orders, while some brokers have lower levels of proficiency.


5Attitude. Learning to hold coins and wait, being nervous when losing and also nervous when making profits, striving to find favorable factors for oneself through one's own analysis and the opinions of others, and so on.

The alternating seasons of winter and spring always catch people off guard, with extremely fast temperature changes, which precisely reflects the transformation of seasons. It is said that the four seasons are becoming increasingly unclear. After winter, I don't know what to wear in spring, but summer has arrived. At the same time, it reminds me of trading. I remember the past trend of gold and silver, which was almost one-sided every day. It seemed that if you woke up later, you would miss out on a lot. However, the current market trend is almost motionless, with no meaning in the morning or evening. The same price, the oscillation cycle is getting longer and the intraday fluctuations are becoming more and more limited. And at this time, it is the real time to exercise. A good mentality lies in two aspects:1When the price remains unchanged, the heart remains still and can tolerate it.2When the price fluctuates, don't panic and can tolerate it. If you are not surprised, you can understand the mystery of market operation. If the market does not move, you will be tempted, if the market moves, your heart will tremble, and if you are afraid of trading, it will only amplify the possibility of errors.


Author of this article: Shan Chenjin


Author's Message: A broad view and appointment, thick accumulation and thin hair!


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The above content is for reference only. Investment carries risks and caution is required when entering the market.