Shan Chenjin:3.16How much room is left below the future market as gold weakens in consecutive negative periods?

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Shan Chenjin:3.16goldHow much space is left below the future market due to the weakening of continuous yin?


The alternating seasons of winter and spring always catch people off guard, with extremely fast temperature changes, which precisely reflects the transformation of seasons. It is said that the four seasons are becoming increasingly unclear. After winter, I don't know what to wear in spring, but summer has arrived. At the same time, it reminds me of trading. I remember the past trend of gold and silver, which was almost one-sided every day. It seemed that if you woke up later, you would miss out on a lot. However, the current market trend is almost motionless, with no meaning in the morning or evening. The same price, the oscillation cycle is getting longer and the intraday fluctuations are becoming more and more limited. And at this time, it is the real time to exercise. A good mentality lies in two aspects:1When the price remains unchanged, the heart remains still and can tolerate it.2When the price fluctuates, don't panic and can tolerate it. If you are not surprised, you can understand the mystery of market operation. If the market does not move, you will be tempted, if the market moves, your heart will tremble, and if you are afraid of trading, it will only amplify the possibility of errors.


--International News Analysis--

International Gold opened on Thursday1324USD position, opening test1327After a volatile downturn, the lowest point in the US market reached1315.90The US dollar has once again fallen below1320At the critical level, the US dollar index remained relatively strong, fluctuating upwards. The US data released yesterday was relatively strong, providing support for the US dollar. US stocks also stopped falling and rebounded, with the Dow Jones rising more than200Point. Data shows that from the United States to3month10The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week is22.610000 people, below the previous value and meeting expectations; Continuous158Weekly Below30Wanguan Pass, Continuously Creating1970The longest since the beginning of the year. United States2The monthly import price index rate is0.4%, lower than the previous value but higher than expected; United States3The monthly fee for the Federal Reserve's manufacturing industry refers to22.3, lower than previous values and expectations.


uggenheimPartnersChief Investment OfficerScottMinerdThursday(3month15day)In an interview, he said he expects the number of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve this year to exceed the three currently digested by the market, as the new Federal Reserve Chairman Powell(JeromePowell)We are striving to curb inflation. Powell seemed to have opened the door to the expectation of four interest rate hikes this year at a congressional hearing last month, with widespread expectations of the Federal Reserve2018Interest rates will be raised three times a year, and next Tuesday(3month20day)Until Wednesday(3month21day)At the meeting, interest rate hikes will begin, marking the first time since Powell took office as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve that he has presided over a monetary policy meeting. The expected interest rate hike this time25One basis point, the probability of interest rate hike is close to100%。


Looking back on the previous interest rate hikes:


1，2016year12Before the monthly interest rate hike, there was more than a month of decline, with a significant decline100More US dollars;


2，2017year3Falling nearly before the monthly interest rate hike2Week, the decline reached70dollar;


3，2017.12Two weeks of decline before the monthly interest rate hike, with a decline of60About USD;


With the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision next Wednesday8Oh my god, there is a significant downward trend in this cycle.


--Analysis of spot gold market--


Wednesday and Thursday can be said to be consecutive profits, and the perspective and reasons for profitability are very clear in the intraday interpretation. The pattern of early morning gains is extremely crucial in the afternoon performance. It is judged that the rise of the market is due to the consecutive bullish breaks in the European market. When the price tests the low point in the morning again, it indicates that the market has entered a weak pattern; The two trading days show the same time point with the same pullback, and it is the starting point for the European market to win the morning market consecutively. When the time, price, and pattern all overlap, this will form a cycle, and the US market's short orders once again reach the target, which is also the best evidence of this viewpoint. In addition, the European market has been continuously bearish, and the US market continues to be short. This is also an empirical principle; The profitability of this market must be based on seeing more and moving less. It is just speculation, and frequent entry and exit is not very meaningful. It is important to be cautious before making a move. Why is it difficult to make a profit from following orders? This needs to be interpreted from the perspective of winning rate. Only with a high winning rate can stable and easy returns be achieved!

Today, after four consecutive trading days of sideways consolidation, the daily chart has weakened significantly, with a continuous negative streak in the early morning and no rebound at the closing. From the perspective of the main principle, this practice cannot be ruled out. The pattern itself is positive but not continuous, which precisely indicates a signal of weakness in advance. Currently, it is defined as an extremely weak pattern, and operations only need to continue to layout short positions. In terms of position, please refer to the high point of early morning rebound and pay attention in the short term1319A line of resistance, which is also the position of today's morning trading plan, but from the rhythm of the morning, the morning market directly broke through the bottom and fell back. Therefore, it is necessary to adjust the operating techniques and position. Pay attention to three aspects of the form of breaking through the bottom in the morning:


1The smaller the magnitude of the rebound, the greater the probability of a pullback;


2The morning high is the key to the strength of the day, so the sky must rely on it;

3The European market must experience a double bottom, which is also the key to holding positions.


Suppress in the morning after operation1317Can be short lived, loss1323, look at the goal1310-08The practical principle is always to execute first and hand over the right and wrong to the market. When the European market does not fall, then deal with the right and wrong before the US market. Do not give any suggestions for the time being, and focus on bearish returns in the early morning. In addition, strong resistance still exists1319-20This is also today's defensive position!


Shan Chenjin - I have something to tell you


1Based on one's own actual situation,Not blindly investing - each investor's own situation is different, and investing should be done within one's capabilities. Dan Chenjin suggests that investors use some of their idle funds for investment and wealth management,It can not only enjoy the fun of investment, but also alleviate financial pressure and to some extent avoid risks.


2Investment needs to be summarized - don't be confused when making investments, know how to earn and how to lose, find the reasons, learn from methods, and learn from lessons; Otherwise, your ultimate result will definitely be being eliminated from this market;


3There is a clear approach to trading and a principle for stopping losses - there is no sustainable and stable trading approach, and the stopping loss method is not clear. These are all90%What investors with large losses have in common is how to ensure long-term profitability if you or your teacher do not have a complete trading system.


4There is no pie in the world, and there is a reason to learn - if your teacher only provides orders but does not teach you basic skillsKLine, trend, and trading theories need to be cautious. Even with guidance from teachers and the operation of investment still depends on oneself, without basic discernment, losses are even more numb and unresponsive.

A line of poetry from "The Legend of the Demon Cat" that runs through the entire plot left a deep impression on me: clouds are like clothes, flowers are like faces! The infatuated and persistent White Dragon persevered for thirty years. I dream of one day seeing Yuhuan's awakening again, even though I know it's impossible. But ultimately it became the courage to survive. Yes, no matter when, don't give up on your dreams because of other people's gossip. What if it happens? Stephen Chow said: If a person has no dreams, what is the difference between them and salted fish? How many people silently move forward in a city thousands of miles away from home? So what makes us struggle alone in the city, endure loneliness, endure leaving home, endure misunderstandings, and endure all kinds of unhappiness? It's a dream, the dream you once promised. The purpose of integrating into transactions is also to achieve our future selves. Perhaps you are currently confused about the shortcomings of your technology and afraid of trading execution, but in the future, you will definitely be grateful for your current self.


Author of this article: Shan Chenjin


Author's Message: A broad view and appointment, thick accumulation and thin hair!


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The above content is for reference only. Investment carries risks and caution is required when entering the market.