Shan Chenjin:3.13市场静候CPI，黄金先跌后市怎么看？

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Shan Chenjin:3.13市场静候CPI，gold先跌后市怎么看？
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Summary:周二亚市早盘，现货黄金在冲高后持续回落，因市场对晚间美国CPI数据的预期相对乐观，金价承压，目前已小幅跌破1320关口，跌幅0.24%。


--International News Analysis--

欧美开启贸易“口水战”


众人担忧的贸易战硝烟弥漫之际，欧盟和美国先打起了口水战。特朗普先发制人，一次次地发出措辞严厉的威胁。他在twitter上相继扔出了一个又一个“口水炸弹”：“你们先降税，我们才降。否则，就开征汽车税!”欧盟也不甘示弱，高级官员纷纷回敬称，他们不会被特朗普不断升级的保护主义言论和惩罚性关税谈判所吓倒。“我们不怕，我们要抵制欺凌!”


静候美国CPIdata


目前全球金融市场正紧盯将于今晚公布的美国2Monthly Consumer Price Index(CPI)，市场普遍预期环比增长会由1Of the month0.5%，放缓至0.2%，同比增长则由2.1%加快至2.2%，扣除食品及能源的核心指数料继续同比升1.8%。康证投资研究部表示，目前基本可以确定3月份联储局有条件可以加息，而2月份没有计划找工作的人数大幅减少，意味劳动市场往后的供应可能呈现紧张，因此美国通胀未来有进一步上升的可能。


单晨金小结：近期金融市场可谓动荡不已，美国总统特朗普意外的关税举措以及美联储紧缩货币政策，都暴露出市场在持续乐观环境下面临潜在冲击的风险，整个2月份，市场波动率指数(VIX)一度达到了自2015年以来的最高水平。如果波动率仍然维持高位，那么在美联储加息后，面对市场一些风险因素，或将促使投资者转向贵金属，以规避市场可能的下跌。当然短期内，黄金仍然难以突破上行阻力，不过我看好黄金中长期的表现。


--Analysis of spot gold market--


From major cycles4小时的走势来看，4小时目前收取高位倒垂阴线，对于这一种形态，没有必要去猜下一个时间段收取阴线和阳线，而是根据当下的趋势来预测，再加上4小时大阳线，基本上回撤幅度有限，再加上大周期均线指标MA5Clearly wornMA10The daily moving average is located at0Run above the axis, in conjunction with the indicators in the attached diagramMACDJincha continues to increase its volume,4小时看好震荡上行的走势。

从短期小时线的走势来看，目前1325美元顶点转换，这一线得与失决定后市黄金的走势，特别是下跌之后的弱势反抽，幅度大了这个时候就要谨慎去做空，但是也不是说不能做空，要根据盘面的走势来预测，特别是小时线收阳之后的下跌，同样幅度太大，对于这一种走势，保持多看少做得操作思路，短期均线指标MA5Clearly wornMA10The daily moving average is located at0Run above the axis, in conjunction with the indicators in the attached diagramMACD金叉持续放量，小时线看好震荡上行的走势，综合近期的走势来看，今日上方重点关注1328-1330美元的阻力位，下方关注1318-1315美元底部支撑，现在来看依然是震荡，操作方面高抛低吸。如果做不好高抛低吸，那么就观望回避。适合自己的行情，大胆去抓。不适合自己的行情，莫强求。


Understanding of Shan Chenjin Trading-Reasons for losses in gold speculation


Personally, I believe that gold investment is a good investment product. Firstly, it has flexibility in trading, secondly, the stability of gold, and thirdly, the factors that affect gold are easier to analyze. Gold has been the main carrier of investment and wealth management since ancient times, but currently, domestic gold investors still suffer more losses and less profits. Why? Some people blame the platform, others blame the market, and say some personal opinions


1Lack of understanding of relevant knowledge. I heard that there is a great profit opportunity in this market, and if the broker deceives me again, I rashly enter the market without learning relevant knowledge, and even the trading rules and software usage are not clear. If you want to do a good job, you must first sharpen your tools. Even if you don't understand the resources in your hands, it's difficult to think of losing.


2I have learned relevant knowledge, especially technical analysis, and have a mixed understanding of various indicators and graphics. However, I am not proficient in them, and I am not familiar with them. When making orders, I have a confused mindset.


3Do not have their own trading strategy. The entry position is not suitable, which is not conducive to hanging a stop loss or not hanging a stop loss. A sharp rise and fall in the market is like chasing orders, and the result is always chasing the end of the market. There is no accurate positioning of profit margin before placing an order, and unexpected market conditions can be caught off guard.


4Blindly superstitious about brokers. The relationship between brokers and investors depends on trading volume, so some brokers encourage investors to place more orders, while some brokers have lower levels of proficiency.


5Attitude. Learning to hold coins and wait, being nervous when losing and also nervous when making profits, striving to find favorable factors for oneself through one's own analysis and the opinions of others, and so on.

双向的市场，单向的人生。价格高了会掉下来，低了会涨上去，唯独人生只涨不跌。过了三十，身边都感叹时间飞逝，转眼18年又过去了四分之一。但明明年才过完。市场不仅是你的，也是大家的，就如时间一样，每个人都是24小时一天一样公平。而唯独不公平的是我们在遇事时处理问题的态度和方式。特别是交易，情绪是交易中最大的一关，很多时候，并不是没有分析对，却总是因为一点点误差而影响整体交易，从而产生情绪波动，恶性循环，导致连环性错误。有句话称：如果撬杆足够长，可以撬动任何一个物体。类似于蝴蝶效应，北大洋的一只蝴蝶，只是轻轻煽动了几下翅膀，但演变成西半球的海啸。这就是联动性。古人云:莫因善小而不为，莫因恶小而为之！往往致使我们犯错误的并不是特别大的问题，恰恰的小到不起眼的地方。联动效应表现在：不好的交易，较坏的情绪，看不惯身边的事，慢慢发酵变大，找出气的地方，从而继续演变到交易当中。交易，一定要空杯精神，过去的放下，未来的轻松面对。


Author of this article: Shan Chenjin


Author's Message: A broad view and appointment, thick accumulation and thin hair!


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The above content is for reference only. Investment carries risks and caution is required when entering the market.