Shan Chenjin:3.8今日将迎来超级之夜，黄金行情怎么看？

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Shan Chenjin:3.8今日将迎来超级之夜，gold行情怎么看？
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Summary:黄金周三从两周高位1340上方回落，回吐科恩离职之后带来的大部分涨幅，美盘最低下探至1322.37USD, lost1332USD support.


--International News Analysis--

周三有“小非农”之称的美国ADP就业最新数据显示，2月美国就业人数增加23.5万，大幅超过预期值20万。这也是连续第四个月，民间就业人数达到20万以上。在数据好于预期的提振下，国际金承压走低。同时美联储发布褐皮书称，美国的劳动力市场持续收紧，许多地区的工资涨势加快。这似乎给美联储今年多次加息铺平了道路。


本周五市场还将迎来美国2月非农报告。MarketWatch对经济学家进行的调查显示，就业人数的强劲将足以让失业率下降。政府报告预计，2Non farm employment will increase in the month22.2万人，高于前一个月的20万人。失业率预计将从4.1%Descend to4%。


全球金融市场将迎来“超级之夜”！北京时间周四晚间，欧洲央行将公布利率决议，且欧洲央行行长德拉基也将召开新闻记者会，尽管预计欧银料维持利率不变，但决策者可能放弃“央行在必要时可能增加购债”的措辞，若果真如此，对于欧元多头而言将是极大的鼓舞。同时，德拉基随后举行的新闻发布会也备受关注，对于投资者而言，他如何看待通胀始终低于目标，以及任何有关欧洲央行何时计划结束2.5万亿欧元刺激计划的线索都至关重要，值得注意的是，foreign exchange市场在德拉基新闻发布会期间经常剧烈波动，因此投资者也需“系好安全带”！


--Analysis of spot gold market--


经常有人问到怎么做的问题。刚好我们借着昨日的行情来解读一下如何操作。其实分析本身没有什么，难点在于执行。昨日早间行情当中我们强调过一个死的定律。前一日上涨，欧盘回撤前一日修正的凌晨低点1333-1332做多，博欧盘上涨，欧盘回撤，美盘前反抽出局。我想这句话足矣证明我们昨天应该怎么去做。首先是依托前一日凌晨的低点去做多，其次是看欧盘的上涨。最后是做对错的处理，也就是说，欧盘不涨，我们把多单在美盘前出局即可。欧盘涨了我们多单落袋为安今日交易完成。这是一个标准的逻辑性。而昨日欧盘滞涨，回到执行里面美盘前反弹出多。所以对于日内的1332-33的多单来说，保本出局即可。

近期就是来回的洗盘整理反复，中期看似继续维持的日线1360-1306的大区间整理结构，但是短线日内走势较为复杂，棘手。阴阳交替，来回反复。变盘较快，反复缺乏延续性的行情，操作上容易受前面的行情影响而陷入跟随性的操作，所以最近的思路确立主节奏，操作一个方向顺势做会比较被动。


暂时的日内操作思路上，亚盘不建议去追空，就如同昨日早盘跳高1340不建议去追多一样的道理。行情缺乏延续性，阴阳交替来回反复。防止今日震荡反弹再去收阳，也不排除这种可能性。节奏上重点考虑日线阴阳交替的反复，前面两根低位十字星，周五和周一小阳小阴交替，周二周三大阳大阴交替。那么今日防止隔夜1322低点不破，午夜的下跌终止在早盘，亚欧盘震荡反弹。操作上亚盘激进的1324-1323Long, stop loss1320, Objective1330-1335。美盘重点关注1336-1338区域压力。


Understanding of Shan Chenjin Trading-Reasons for losses in gold speculation


Personally, I believe that gold investment is a good investment product. Firstly, it has flexibility in trading, secondly, the stability of gold, and thirdly, the factors that affect gold are easier to analyze. Gold has been the main carrier of investment and wealth management since ancient times, but currently, domestic gold investors still suffer more losses and less profits. Why? Some people blame the platform, others blame the market, and say some personal opinions


1Lack of understanding of relevant knowledge. I heard that there is a great profit opportunity in this market, and if the broker deceives me again, I rashly enter the market without learning relevant knowledge, and even the trading rules and software usage are not clear. If you want to do a good job, you must first sharpen your tools. Even if you don't understand the resources in your hands, it's difficult to think of losing.

2I have learned relevant knowledge, especially technical analysis, and have a mixed understanding of various indicators and graphics. However, I am not proficient in them, and I am not familiar with them. When making orders, I have a confused mindset.


3Do not have their own trading strategy. The entry position is not suitable, which is not conducive to hanging a stop loss or not hanging a stop loss. A sharp rise and fall in the market is like chasing orders, and the result is always chasing the end of the market. There is no accurate positioning of profit margin before placing an order, and unexpected market conditions can be caught off guard.


4Blindly superstitious about brokers. The relationship between brokers and investors depends on trading volume, so some brokers encourage investors to place more orders, while some brokers have lower levels of proficiency.


5Attitude. Learning to hold coins and wait, being nervous when losing and also nervous when making profits, striving to find favorable factors for oneself through one's own analysis and the opinions of others, and so on.

市场三要素：分析，执行，验证。恐惧于市场，摇摆于执行，后悔于结束，这是多大数人做的事。对市场强弱没有定义，看涨说涨，看跌说跌。不给位置总是想要，给了不敢交易。进场后总觉得自己不对，持仓艰难。交易没有了信心，等于掉进了深井，暗无天日。原则就是原则，方法就是方法。在交易中有了对错处理的方法，持仓就没那么恐惧。为什么恐惧交易？是因为进场你看不懂，什么时候错你不知道，只是傻傻的等，自己吓自己，别人吓自己，生于恐慌，终于恐慌。


Author of this article: Shan Chenjin


Author's Message: A broad view and appointment, thick accumulation and thin hair!


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The above content is for reference only. Investment carries risks and caution is required when entering the market.