李文财：2.24加息逼近，黄金有望触底反弹再现辉煌

　　现在很多人的一个状态是离开goldThe market is unhappy, and staying in the gold market is unwilling. In fact, if you still can't make money in this market, you really need to reflect on whether you are suitable for this market and why you still can't make a profit in such an obvious market? I reflect on myself three times a day, even if I fail, at least I need to know why I failed. Without summarizing, you will never know why you fell, and you will never be able to stand up.

　　#Message surface#


　　白宫再现“离职潮”？川普幕僚长等多位官员据悉准备辞职


According toCNBC周五报道，因关系紧张，川普幕僚长JohnKelly和国家安全顾问H.R.McMaster或很快就会辞职。据四位政府高级官员透露，美国总统川普和两位高级助手、国家安全顾问和幕僚长之间长期存在的摩擦已经升级到新高度，这几位官员可能会马上提交辞呈。H.R.McMasterandJohnKelly都感觉为川普处理公共和私人事务是一种耻辱。本周早些时候，带领美国政府廉价清洁能源研究项目的能源部首席顾问Fisher宣布辞职，为川普就职以来辞任的第三名能源部高级官员。若上述官员也接连辞职，白宫恐怕会再次掀起一股“离职潮”，正治不确定性将大幅飙升。


　　避险情绪一触即发，川普计划宣布规模最大的对朝制裁方案


　　周五据消息报道，一名美国政府高官称，川普政府计划周五宣布对朝鲜的新制裁措施，加大对朝鲜当局的压力，以促使朝鲜放弃核武和dao弹项目。两周前美国副总统彭斯曾大概提及此事，称很快将宣布制裁朝鲜的新措施。有官员透露，川普或在美东时间早间的保守派正治行动会议演讲当中谈及最新制裁措施，随后美国财政部公布具体细节。据悉，这将会是最大规模的对朝制裁方案，市场避险情绪恐进一步升温，黄金市场料获得新的支撑。


　　不过近日空头因素交织，仍然令黄金处于震荡格局


　　近日美国初请失业金数据、MarkitmanufacturingPMI等经济数据表现强劲，支撑了人们对美国经济的乐观预期。美联储会议纪要显示了对经济前景的乐观态度，FOMC委员们对通胀达到2％的目标越来越乐观。多数成员“认同经济状况增强提升了进一步逐步加息可能性”的观点，美元有望继续获得支撑。此外美联储官员卡普兰和夸尔斯也先后发表乐观言论，同样也巩固了市场对美联储加息前景的预期，利好美元，利空黄金。

　　文财个人观点：随着3月份美联储加息的悄然临近，市场的关注点或许不再是避险了，而是当前的经济通胀，毫无疑问的是3月份定然会进行加息。加息降临我们都知道这意味着什么，市场将会进行再次调整，短期空头趋势或许会再次降临。纵观历史的数次加息，李文财罗列了以下几点加息前后对黄金走势的影响情况：


　　1、2015year12month17The Federal Reserve of Japan and the United States has raised interest rates for the first time. Prior to the rate hike, the market was heavily bearish due to the impact of expected rate hikes, resulting in the lowest decline in gold prices1046After confirming the interest rate hike, gold1046Seeing the bottom, gold finally surged to1378The position of the US dollar has risen sharply330Surplus US dollars!


　　2、2016year12month15The second interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve of Japan and the United States, influenced by expectations of rate hikes before the hike1330A sharp drop above the point200Surplus US dollars, minimum to1125frontline. After the confirmation of interest rate hikes, gold bulls experienced a surge, the highest impact1270The region is experiencing a significant increase150dollar!


　　3、2017year3month16The Federal Reserve of Japan and the United States has raised interest rates for the third time. Prior to the rate hike, gold was affected by expectations of a rate hike1270Down below, lowest drop1195Region; After the Federal Reserve confirmed the interest rate hike, gold experienced an upward trend, albeit with twists and turns, but with the highest surge impact1300At the checkpoint, the increase is close to110dollar!


　　4、2017year6month15The fourth interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve of Japan and the United States, with gold under pressure due to expectations of rate hikes before the hike1300Gateway, daily line formation1296Double peak decline, gold surges and falls to its lowest point after confirming interest rate hike1204The region has reached a bottom, with the highest increase1357Region, with an increase of150Surplus US dollars!


　　5、2017year12month14The fifth interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve of Japan and the United States, influenced by the expected increase in market conditions before the hike, has led to a decline in market trends12At the beginning of the month1299Exploring all the way down nearby1236.6Nearby, in just over ten days, the market has plummeted like a bamboo; Subsequently, after the Federal Reserve confirmed the interest rate hike, the market surged all the way to1366Nearby, the increase has reached133Around US dollars!

　　#Analysis of Gold Market#


　　黄金日线级别上，本周收线三阴一阳，整体的表现偏向于弱势，虽然隔日收线下探回升转阳，打破了极弱格局，但是金价能否由弱转强，现在也还是一个未知数，日线级别上方阻力我们需要关注两个点：一个是隔日转阳的高点1332附近位置，日线收线若是能收在隔日高点上方，那说明有向多头发展的趋势，但是不能断定短期已经探底成功转向多头，真正意义上的进入多头趋势，还要看另一个点1336，从位置是日线级别较为重要的一个阻力位，此位置目前为日线布林中轨与均线MA10交汇的地方，也就是说金价在没有突破布林中轨之间，还是一个偏向于弱势的走势，并且日线上MA5UnderpassMA10、MA20Dead fork operation,MACD快慢线缓慢下行绿色量能放量，从这些指标的走势中可以看出，采取高沽低渣即可。后市黄金操作策略：短期内围绕1325-1335区间内高沽低渣，破位上看1342Take a look below1318，具体待加息后走出明确方向。


　　#文财寄语#


　　投资的首要原则是规避风险，如果不能规避风险，那么赚再多的钱，有一天都会还回去，任何一个人的成功都有其方法，而投资交易也必有其原则，积少成多、以小搏大是交易的根本。而有很多人却忘记了初衷，把利益看在眼前，却把风险挂在墙上，其实一个成功的投资者所依靠的并不是一门独特的技术指标，也不是非常精准的技术面的分析，而是具备正确的操作理念和方法，尊重趋势顺势操作，避免武断、茫然，积小胜为大胜，这样你便能跻身赢家之列。我给客户的每一次抉择策略都要经过无比细心的分析之后才会给的，想要知道怎么做单很简单，想要知道怎么做对单是一道复杂的工序，那就请耐心等待。这是为你负责，也是为我负责，进来了这里就不要怀疑你缺什么，其实你什么都不缺，只是缺一位好老师。


Author/Li Wenchai (official WeChat account:lwc540179821）