Last night22:00,美联储新掌门人鲍威尔将宣誓就这也正式宣告耶伦时代的终结。鲍威尔即将面临两大棘手难题,一是特朗普的减税政策、基建计划有望推动美国经济增长步伐提速,或引发经济过热。如果鲍威尔接下来对加息时机拿捏不准,保持与此前一样缓慢的加息步伐,恐将难以消除美国经济过热的风险;二是鲍威尔接下来或将倾向于给美国银行业“松绑”,若美国金融监管过度放松,有可能会演变成一只“黑天鹅”,并引发经济危机。此外,近期债市的一场走势可能会令注重风险的鲍威尔采取不一样的政策,鲍威尔曾在2012年反对第三轮QE,认为这是在制造美债泡沫,一旦利率上升会导致市场崩盘。
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Market analysis:
目前技术面来看,日图布林带三轨朝上缩口运行,MA5AndMA10The moving average shows a dead cross and flattens to the right,KThe line intersects between the upper and middle tracks in BolinMA5、MA10Near the moving average,MACD快慢线死叉下行放缓绿色动能有所缩量,KDJ三线朝上缩口欲有交金叉之势,行情整体表现偏强格局。4On the hourly chart, the opening of the Bollinger Bands rises upwards,MA5On the moving averageMA10The moving average crosses the golden cross upwards,K线交投于布林中上轨之间,MACD快慢线交金叉上行红色动能初现,KDJ三线呈金叉继续朝上发散运行,金价短线还有进一步上行势能。
原油技术面来看,日线图上周五下跌后录得小阴住,油价承压66上方,支撑64.3一带,短周期指标上涨势能略有衰竭,周初阶段或许还有调整,不过顶部特征并不明显。4小时图来看,短线高位形成双顶,同时以震荡的形成打破前期的上升趋势线,短线偏空的概率大,原油自56reach66.6的上涨的节奏告一段落,将会陷入震荡调整的走势当中。今日上方关注64.2Pressure, following below62.8Support.
Suggestions for crude oil operation:
1Bounce to63.8Short nearby, stop loss64.2US dollars, look at the target63If63强支撑破位还可继续下看;
Teacher Mengxian (official WeChat:mengxian909 QQ:982200437)Proficient in applying wave theoryKBands, Bollinger BandsMACDAnalyzing and predicting market trends. Proficient in using various technical indicators, thus forming a unique risk control system and trading system. If you need psychological guidance, investment plans, are interested in investing in precious metals such as crude oil and gold but have no idea where to start, or have friends who are already in contact but not ideal, and want to keep up with the stable market layout, please follow "Dream Immortal Teacher".