Crossing the Sea 2018year1month30day

Crossing the Sea

2018

year

1

month

30

day

Focus this week:
1month30day(Tuesday)
U.S.A11monthCaseShiller 20个城市房价指数年率
U.S.A1Monthly Consumer Confidence Index

1month31day(Wednesday)
美国前周抵押贷款市场指数
美国前周抵押贷款再融资指数
U.S.A1monthADPChanges in private employment positions
美国第四季薪资季率
美国第四季雇佣成本指数季率
U.S.A1Month ChicagoPMI
U.S.A12Monthly Housing Pending Sales Index

2month1day(Thursday)
美国联邦基金利率目标区间
U.S.A1monthChallengerNumber of layoffs planned by the company
Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
美国第四季非农单位劳工成本初值
Quarter on quarter non farm productivity rate in the United States
U.S.A1monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIFinal value
U.S.A12Monthly construction expenditure rate
U.S.A1monthISMManufacturing Index

2month2day(Friday)
U.S.A1Monthly non-agricultural employment positions
U.S.A1Monthly private employment positions
U.S.A1Monthly unemployment rate
U.S.A1Monthly average hourly salary
U.S.A1月平均每周工时
U.S.A1月劳动人口就业参与率
U.S.A1monthISM-New York Corporate Activity Index
U.S.A12Monthly factory order rate
U.S.A1Final Value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for the Month



Important economic data released today:   
17：30britain12Monthly Consumer Credit‧forecast13Billion‧Previous value14Billion
17：30britain12Monthly mortgage loan disbursement amount‧forecast34.50Billion‧Previous value34.99Billion
17：30britain12Number of monthly mortgage loan approvals‧forecast63,500piece‧Previous value65,139piece
17：30britain12monthM4Monthly rate of goods supply‧Previous value0.1%
18：00Eurozone Q4 Gross Domestic Product(GDP)首次初估值年率‧forecast2.7%‧Previous value2.6%
18：00Eurozone Q4 Gross Domestic Product(GDP)首次初估值季率‧forecast0.6%‧Previous value0.6%
18：00eurozone1Monthly Enterprise Prosperity Index‧forecast1.69‧Previous value1.66
18：00eurozone1Monthly Economic Prosperity Index‧forecast1116.3‧Previous value116.0
18：00eurozone1Monthly Industrial Prosperity Index‧forecast9.0‧Previous value9.1
18：00eurozone1Monthly Service Industry Prosperity Index‧forecast18.6‧Previous value18.4
18：00eurozone1Monthly Consumer Confidence Index‧forecast1.3‧Previous value1.3
18：00eurozone1Monthly Consumer Inflation Expectation Index‧Previous value13.6
18：00eurozone1月生产者通胀预期指数‧Previous value13.4
21：00Germany1Monthly consumer price index(CPI)Initial monthly rate‧forecast-0.6%‧Previous value0.6%
21：00Germany1Monthly consumer price index(CPI)Annual rate initial value‧forecast1.7%‧Previous value1.7%
21：00Germany1Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)Initial monthly rate‧forecast-0.7%‧Previous value0.8%
21：00Germany1Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)Annual rate initial value‧forecast1.6%‧Previous value1.6%
22：00U.S.A11monthCaseShiller 20个城市经季节调整房价指数月率‧forecast0.7%‧Previous value0.7%
22：00U.S.A11monthCaseShiller 20个城市未经季节调整房价指数月率‧Previous value0.2%
22：00U.S.A11monthCaseShiller 20个城市房价指数年率‧forecast6.4%‧Previous value6.4%
23：00U.S.A1Monthly Consumer Confidence Index‧forecast123.1‧Previous value122.1



News of the Week
Monday/U.S.A12Monthly CorePCEThe price index has increased compared to the previous month0.2%
U.S.A12Monthly CorePCEThe price index has increased compared to the same period last year1.5%
U.S.A12Monthly personal consumption expenditure(PCE)The price index has increased compared to the previous month0.1%
U.S.A12monthPCEThe price index has increased compared to the same period last year1.7%
U.S.A12月个人支出较前月增加0.4%，个人所得较前月增加0.4%



1month29day
LondongoldMorning order price:1348.40
London gold afternoon fixing price:1343.85


Today's Introduction
美元受美债收益率提振上扬，市场等待美联储会议

美元兑一篮子货币周二在近期所及的三年低点上方交投，美债收益率上升提供支撑。市场人士等待美国联邦储备理事会(FED)政策会议，以获得新的指引。市场参与者在周二晚些时候，还会将关注焦点转向美国总统特朗普的国情咨文演说。特朗普周一表示，他将在演说中谈到他的移民改革提议，以及降低对美国出口品的全球贸易壁垒的举措。特朗普还会在演说中概述备受期待的基建支出计划。美联储将在周二召开为期两天的政策会议，市场普遍预期其将维持利率不变。但投资者将关注美联储对经济和通胀的评估，以寻求有关货币政策前景的线索。



XAU London Gold -金价下滑，受美元走强和美债收益率上扬拖累

The world's largest gold listed trading fund(ETF)--SPDRGold Trust称，周一其黄金持仓量下降0.17%to846.67吨，上周五为848.14Tons.

金价周二连续第二天下跌，触及一周最低，因美元上涨，且美债收益率上扬。与此同时市场人士等待美联储政策会议的结果，以期寻找有关今年加息情况的线索。金价本月以来已上涨近3%，主要受美元走软影响。美元上周连续第六周录得周线跌幅。美国公债收益率周一急升至逾三年高位，此前欧洲央行官员的讲话巩固了市场预期，即随着经济前景改善，全球主要央行将缩减刺激计划。在本周美国将密集发布数据之际，债券收益率上升帮助支撑了美元。但美元仍可能创2016year3月以来的最大月线跌幅。

As seen in the technical chart2013年至今，金价走势形成了一组双底型态，颈线位置为2016year7Monthly high1374.91美元，倘若可突破此区，料金价中短期仍可续展升势。若以最近的底部计算，即2016year12Monthly low1122.35与颈线的相距幅度，技术延伸目标将会达至1627美元。另外，由2011Annual high1920.30to2015Annual low1045.85美元，累计跌幅为874.45美元，黄金比率38.2%The rebound level is1380Expand to50%and61.8%则会看至1483and1586USD.2014year3Monthly high1391.76美元亦可为阻力依据，进一步则料会考验1400美元的心理关口。此外，金价由去年12月中旬至今的上升行情中已在图表形成一上升趋向线，目前位于1343美元，在本周初跌破后，短期料先作调整。而这段升幅作计算，38.2%and50%The level of feedback is1324.70and1311.90，61.8%Then it is1299。至于图表亦见25The current position of the balance moving average1325亦作重要参考。

London Gold2018year1month30day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1332 –1343
Resistance level:1349–1358 –1370
Support bit:1326–1312 –1301

SPDR GoldTrustGold holdings:
1month8Day -834.86ton
1month9Day -831.91ton
1month10Day -828.96ton
1month11Day -828.96ton
1month12Day -828.96ton
1month15Day -828.96ton
1month16Day -828.96ton
1month17Day -828.96ton
1month18Day -840.76ton
1month19Day -846.67ton
1month22Day -846.67ton
1month23Day -849.32ton
1month24Day -849.32ton
1month25Day -849.32ton
1month26Day -848.14ton
1month29Day -846.67ton

2Monthly goldfuturesDue date:2month26day
2Monthly goldoptionDue date:1month25day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Data source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2017year12month)

Global:33604.1ton (+104.5ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3373.6ton (-0.1ton)
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.9ton
China(6)：1842.6ton
Russia(7)：1801.2ton (+22.3ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver -银价处于盘整阶段

伦敦白银方面，图表见相对强弱指标及随机指数均呈下滑，预示短期银价仍倾向继续下调。较近支持先看100Balance moving average16.86美元。以最近的一轮涨幅计算，38.2%and50%的回调水平为16.89and16.38Expand to61.8%Then it is16.39美元。向上阻力预估在17.40，下一级亦可参考250周平均线位置17.85USD.

London Silver2018year1month30day
Predicting early wave amplitude:16.90 –17.40
Resistance level:17.70–18.10
Support bit:16.70–16.30

iSharesSilver TrustSilver holdings:
1month8Day - 9877.69ton
1month9Day - 9877.69ton
1month10Day - 9839.55ton
1month11Day - 9839.55ton
1month12Day - 9839.55ton
1month15Day - 9839.55ton
1month16Day - 9839.55ton
1month17Day - 9839.55ton
1month18Day - 9813.15ton
1month19Day - 9813.15ton
1month22Day - 9772.08ton
1month23Day - 9736.88ton
1month23Day - 9736.88ton
1month25Day - 9763.28ton
1month26Day - 9763.28ton
1month29Day - 9763.28ton



EUR euro -市场静候特朗普国情咨文及美联储会议

美元兑一篮子货币周二在近期所及的三年低点上方交投。市场人士关注点转至美国总统特朗普的国情咨文演说，以及美国联邦储备理事会(FED)政策会议，以获得新的指引。美元指数回稳于89.50水平附近，脱离上周触及的约88.43的低点，后者为2014year12月以来的最低水平。美债收益率本周重拾升势，对美元构成一定的支撑。欧元兑美元下滑至1.2330附近，脱离上周触及的三年高点1.2538美元。美国财长努钦上周暗示支持弱势美元，给美元空头构成重大提振。特朗普随后试图淡化这些评论，表示他最终希望美元强劲。特朗普周一表示，他将在国情咨文演说中谈到他的移民改革提议，以及降低对美国出口品的全球贸易壁垒的举措。特朗普还会在演说中概述备受期待的基建支出计划。

技术走势而言，欧元兑美元自前一周处于高位区间横盘，但在周三初步已见上破盘整区间的顶部后，或见短线将延续涨势；预计当前向上阻力在1.25水平，另外，延伸自2008year7月的下降趋向线则位于1.2680水平，为后市瞩目参考；进一步则会看至1.2885。至于下方支持先会留意1.2360，关键则回看上周四低位1.2163，需慎防若此区失守，则欧元倾向先作回吐；较大支持料为1.2090Horizontal.

Focus:
1month30day(two): Germany12Monthly import prices‧France12Monthly consumer expenditure rate‧Italy1月制造业企业信心指数‧Consumer confidence index‧Eurozone Q4GDPInitial valuation‧eurozone1Monthly Enterprise Prosperity Index‧Economic Sentiment Index‧工业景气指数‧服务业景气指数‧Consumer confidence index‧消费者通胀预期指数‧生产者通胀预期指数‧Germany1monthCPIinitial value‧HICPinitial value
1month31day(three): Germany12Monthly actual retail sales‧France1monthHICPinitial value‧France12monthPPIMonthly rate‧Germany1Monthly unemployment rate‧unemployment rate‧Italy12Monthly unemployment rate‧eurozone1monthHICPinitial value‧Deducting food and energy expensesHICPthe annual rate‧eurozone12Monthly unemployment rate
2month1day(four): Italy1monthMarkit/ADACImanufacturingPMI‧France1monthMarkitmanufacturingPMI‧Germany1monthMarkit/BMEmanufacturingPMI‧eurozone1monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIFinal value
2month2day(five): Italy1monthCPIinitial value‧HICPinitial value‧eurozone12monthPPI

Related news
法国第四季GDPThe initial value is an increase compared to the previous quarter0.6%
France2017yearGDPincrease1.9%create2011年以来最大增幅

执委普雷特：只有在对通胀前景有把握时，欧洲央行才会停止购债

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance1.2500 –1.2700
support1.2290 –1.2163 –1.2090



JPY yen -美元双顶回挫

美元兑日圆维持于109水平下方，上周五曾触及四个半月低位108.28。股市普遍回调打击了风险偏好，并帮助提振了日圆。日圆最近几周有所上涨，本月稍早日本央行削减在市场操作中的长期公债购买规模，引发了央行最终将退出大规模刺激计划的猜测。日本首相安倍晋三的一名顾问在周二发表的专访中表示，下届央行总裁应会继续执行超宽松刺激计划，这是“安倍经济学”政策组合的关键部分。市场广泛预期黑田东彦会被邀请在4月任期届满后连任央行总裁。

美元兑日圆走势，图表所见，由去年九月至今，美元兑日圆走势形成了一组双顶型态，颈线位置为11month27Daily low110.83，至上周已见明确跌破此区，只要继续居于此区下方，预料美元后市将继持下试。其后较具意义的支持则会参考为去年9Monthly low107.31To the next level200Monthly average line105.80To the extent that105关口。向上阻力预估在110and250Balance moving average111.80Horizontal.

Focus:
1month31day(three): Japan12Initial value of monthly industrial production‧建筑订单年率‧房屋开工年率‧Japan1Monthly Consumer Confidence Index
2month1day(four)：日本前周日本投资外国债券‧前周外资投资日股‧Japan1Monthly and daily manufacturing industryPMI

Related news
Japan12Monthly retail sales increased compared to the same period last year3.6%
Japan12月所有家庭支出较上年同期下降0.1%
Japan12Monthly household expenses have decreased compared to the previous month2.5%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance110.00 –111.80
support107.31 –105.80 –105.00



GBP pound -回跌，受政局不确定性影响

英镑兑美元年初以来上涨约4%，因投资者预计英国和欧盟将很快就英国脱离欧盟的过渡期达成协议。英国上议院的宪法委员会周一表示，文翠珊终止英国欧盟成员国的立法有着“根本缺陷”。上周末有多项报导指出，文翠珊的的领导位子将再度面临挑战。英国料将于2019year3month29日退出欧盟，但政府内部和文翠珊所属的保守党对于以何种关系取代46年的欧盟成员国地位存在严重分歧。不过一直到现在，这些分歧看来尚未令投资人不安，英镑兑美元及贸易加权指数自去年底开始上涨。上周五发布的数据显示，投机客英镑凈多仓创下2014年年中以来最高。

技术图表见，下方支持先看1.3820and1.3620，关键料在1.3550水平。至于向上阻力位预估在1.4080，进一步可参考1.4160and1.4285。

Focus:
1month30day(two): UK12Monthly Consumer Credit‧抵押贷款发放金额‧Number of approved mortgage loans‧M4Monthly rate of goods supply
1month31day(three): UK1monthGfkConsumer confidence index
2month1day(four): UK1monthMarkit/CIPSmanufacturingPMI
2month2day(five): UK1monthMarkit/CIPSconstructionPMI

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance1.4080 –1.4160 –1.4285
support1.3820 –1.3620 –1.3550



CHF Swiss franc -低位区间徘徊

图表见下方支撑估计在0.9290水平，之后参考0.92水平。向上阻力预估为0.94and0.9540The next level material is200Balance moving average0.9750Horizontal.

Related news
Switzerland12The monthly trade surplus is26.32Billion Swiss francs

Focus:
1month31day(three)Switzerland12UBS Group(UBS)Consumption indicators‧Switzerland1monthZEWInvestor confidence index
2month1day(four)：瑞士第一季消费者信心指数‧Switzerland12Monthly retail sales annual rate‧Switzerland1Monthly manufacturing industryPMI

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance0.9400 –0.9540 –0.9750
support0.9290 –0.9200



AUD AUD -突破关键阻力

尽管市场暗示今年美国联邦储备理事会(FED)加息三次的可能性加大，但预计澳洲央行要到11月份才可能进行首次加息。这种背离使得澳洲两年期公债收益率较同期美债收益率低18个基点，为2000年代中期以来最大利差。最近澳洲公布的经济数据鼓舞人心，澳洲国民银行12月商业景气指数表现强劲，而商业信心增强对投资前景有利。

技术图表所见，预计当前阻力先参考去年9Monthly high0.8125，下一级则指向0.83水平。不过，要留意相对强弱指标及随机指数均已有初步掉头下跌迹象，或见澳元存在回调风险。预估下方支撑先看0.80及上周的三日低位0.7940水平，下一级预估在100Balance moving average0.7770Horizontal.

Related news
NAB: Australia12月企业现况指数持稳在正13
NAB: Australia12月企业信心指数升至正11

Focus:
1month31day(three): Australia Season 4CPI‧Central BankCPIweighted median ‧Central BankCPItrimmed mean ‧Australia12月民间部门信贷月率‧房屋信贷月率
2month1day(four): Australia12Monthly building permit rate‧澳洲第四季出口物价季率‧Seasonal import price rate
2month2day(five): Australia1monthAIGManufacturing Index‧澳洲第四季PPI

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance0.8125 –0.8300
support0.8000 –0.7940 –0.7770



NZD New Zealand dollars -上行动有限

数据显示，新西兰12The monthly trade surplus is6.4亿纽元，为2015year3月来最高，给纽元带来温和提振。技术图表所见，鉴于相对强弱指标及随机指数均已自超买区域回落，估计纽元再而上升的动力将为有限。较近支持先会留意250Balance moving average0.7110。以去年11month17Daily low0.6781起始的累计涨幅计算，38.2%and50%的调整水平为0.7190and0.7110Expand to61.8%Then it is0.7030水平。至于向上阻力预估在250Weekly moving average0.7460and0.75水平，关键则回看2015year4Monthly high0.7740Horizontal.

Focus:
新西兰第四季消费者物价指数较前季上升0.1%, up from the same period last year1.6%
New Zealand12The monthly trade surplus is6.4Billions of New Zealand dollars

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance0.7290 –0.7435
support0.7110 –0.7090 –0.7030 –0.6970



CAD Cad -险守趋向线支撑

美元兑加元近两周的多番探低亦是刚好止步于起延自去年9月的上升趋向线，由于相对强弱指标及随机指数均已掉头向上，同时，MACD与讯号线正处于交迭，有机会即将呈现黄金交叉，示意美元兑加元短期倾向展开反扑。预计上探首个阻力将为100Balance moving average position1.2585，汇价之前已曾冲击此指标，但未有闯过此区，如今再探此指标，若可一举突破，料更为巩固美元的反弹态势。若以最近一轮的累计下跌幅度计算，50%and61.8%的回调水平将分别看至1.2630and1.27水平。较大目标将指向200Balance moving average1.2840。下方支持回看上升趋向线1.2385，估计较大支撑则在1.22Horizontal.

Focus:
1month31day(three): Canada11monthGDP‧Canada12月工业产品价格月率‧原材料价格
2month1day(four): Canada1monthMarkitmanufacturingPMI

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance1.2585* –1.2630 –1.2700 –1.2840
support1.2385* –1.2200



CL 纽约期油 -伊拉克称将遵守OPEC减产协议，尽管其石油出口能力增加

伊拉克石油部长卢艾比(JabarAli al-Luaibi)周一表示，该国将会遵守石油输出国组织(OPEC)减产协议，尽管其努力在南部和北部增加石油出口能力。卢艾比表示，伊拉克总能力已达50010000 barrels/日，其中包括南部的46010000 barrels/日。他表示，伊拉克希望在BP的帮助下，北部基尔库克(Kirkuk)油田的产量能增加逾一倍。

油价走低，受压于美元走强和美国crude oil产量增长，但油价仍将录得五年来最大1月升幅。美国原油期货周一收挫0.58USD or0.9%Settlement price report per barrel65.56USD.

技术图表所见，以自去年12月中旬至上周高位的累计涨幅计算，38.2%and50%的回调水平为62.60and61.35Expand to61.8%Then in the60.10US dollars. Additionally,25Balance moving average62.85亦是值得关注的参考。留意RSI及随机指数均呈回落，油价短线料仍呈下探阶段。上方阻力则回看66.10and66.70To the next level68USD.




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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)