At this moment, discussing gold: ranking of data affecting the trend of crude oil

On Jin at this moment:influencecrude oilRanking of trend data


The Federal Reserve has announced whether it will raise interest rates, and many investors have asked, what other important economic data besides the Fed are affecting crude oil? Crude oil investors must understand this content during the process of investing in crude oil. This article summarizes the important economic data that affect crude oil prices.


The important economic data that affect crude oil mainly include the following:


1Gross Domestic Product


The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of a country refers to the economic sectors of that country over a certain period of time(One year or one season)The total value of all goods and services produced without deducting capital consumption. The so-called capital consumption refers to the depreciation of fixed capital.


That is to say, regardless of who owns production assets in the country, their output should be included in the country's gross domestic product.GDPThe accelerated growth rate indicates that the economy is in an expansion stage, and the demand for consumption of means of production will increase.


substanceGDPIt is quarterly data, with the first quarter's preliminary report released at the end of April, and the remaining quarters released in July, October, and January of the following year. For any quarterly report, the first revised report is referred to as "preliminary", and the second revised report is referred to as "revised" or "final". Domestic GDP investors such as China and the United States should pay special attention to it.


2Industrial Production Index


The Industrial Production Index is an important economic indicator for measuring the substantial output of manufacturing, mining, and public utilities, while the Work Production Index is the main indicator reflecting the changes in a country's economic cycle.


The Industrial Production Index is collected by the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States,The referenced data is not actual production data,The vast majority are estimated data(Due to difficulty in collecting information)The sample is250Individual businesses at home,representative27Different industries,with1987Year is the base period.


There are three different categories of content(1)All industries2)Market classification: including final product, intermediate product, and raw material markets;(3)Industrial category: including manufacturing industry(Durable and non durable goods)Mining and public utilities.


The industrial production index is an important indicator reflecting changes in the economic cycle, and can measure the strength of economic recovery or recession by the magnitude of the increase or decrease in the industrial production index. The steady increase in the industrial production index indicates that the economy is in a period of growth, and the demand for means of production will also increase accordingly. The United States on a monthly basis15The report released the statistical results of last month's industrial production index.


3Purchasing Managers' Index（PMI)


The Purchasing Managers' Index is a health check for measuring the manufacturing industry in the United States,To measure the manufacturing industry's production, new orders, commodity prices, inventory, employees, order delivery, new export orders, and imports, management associations should be established(ISM,agoNAPM),Design a questionnaire for the cost items of the eight major manufacturing industries mentioned above,then again50State21The Seed Industry300The answers from procurement managers of multiple companies were statistically analyzed.


The proportion of each industry is calculated based on its share in the gross domestic product. The Purchasing Managers' Index is expressed as a percentage,Often used50%As a dividing line between economic strength and weakness: the current index is higher than50%It is interpreted as a signal of economic expansion. Getting closer100%Many, for example, very close60At that time, the threat of inflation will gradually increase.


4Employment Report


The employment report, including the unemployment rate and non-agricultural employment population, is also an indicator reflecting changes in the economic cycle. In a recession, the unemployment rate increases while the non-agricultural employment population decreases, while in an economic recovery, the unemployment rate decreases while the non-agricultural employment population increases.


The content of the employment report comes from two independent survey materials: household survey and institutional survey. The household survey data is first conducted by the US Census Bureau for the current population survey, and then by the Bureau of Labor Statistics(BLS)Calculate the unemployment rate again.


And institutional survey data, also known as salary surveys, is compiled in collaboration between the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the state government's employment security agency, based on a sample that includes approximately38Ten thousand non-agricultural institutions. As the announcement time is at the beginning of the month, it is generally used as the tone for the monthly economic indicators.


The non-agricultural employment population is an important data for estimating industrial production and personal income. A decrease in unemployment rate or an increase in non-agricultural employment indicates a turnaround in the economy. The United States releases the statistical results of the previous month on the first Friday of each month.


5Consumer Confidence Index


Consumer spending as a percentage of the US economy2/3It has a significant impact on the US economy.


For this purpose, analysts track consumer confidence indices to seek clues that predict future consumer spending patterns. The steady increase in consumer confidence index indicates that consumers are optimistic about their future income expectations, and there are signs of expanding consumer spending, which is beneficial for the economy and should have a positive impact on production materials and other factors.


There are two data reflecting the Consumer Confidence Index, one is the Consumer Confidence Index released by the University of Michigan, which is based on a survey of approximately500A telephone interview was conducted with an American person to investigate personal finances, business conditions, and purchasing status.


The other is the Consumer Confidence Index released by the American Conference Board, which was conducted by a private research institution commissioned by the Conference Board5000A family is the subject of investigation. The University of Michigan releases the Consumer Confidence Index twice a month, once at the beginning of the month and once at the end of the month.


6Retail Sales Index


All transactions involving goods paid in cash or by credit card are within the scope of retail business,But the service industry is not included. The Bureau of Statistics of the US Department of Commerce conducts a national retail industry sampling survey once a month,The survey targets various forms and scales of retail industry(All companies registered with the Ministry of Commerce)。


Because the scope of the retail industry is too broad,Therefore, a random sampling method is adopted,In order to obtain more representative data and information. Retailers of durable goods include car retailers, supermarkets, drug and alcohol distributors, etc.


Due to the difficulty in collecting and calculating information on the service industry,So exclude it from the list,But the service industry is also an important part of consumer spending,Can be obtained from personal consumption expenses(Including retail of goods and services)Take a peek at it.


Increase in retail sales,Represents an increase in personal consumption expenditure,Economic situation improves,If the expected interest rate increases,Beneficial for the US dollar;On the contrary, if the retail sales decrease,It represents a slowdown or downturn in the economy,Interest rates may be lowered,Negative bias towards the US dollar. every month11Solstice14The data from the previous month was released.


7The US Dollar Index


USDXIt's a reference1973year3month6It is calculated based on the geometric mean weighted value of the exchange rate changes of a currency against the US dollar, and its value is measured on a point basis, such as the point quotation, which refers to the value obtained from1973year3Since the beginning of the month, its value has increased.


1973year3The month was chosen as the reference point because it wasforeign exchangeAt a historic moment of market turning, major trading countries allowed their own currencies to freely float with another country's currency.


USDXIt is an indicator that comprehensively reflects the exchange rate situation of the US dollar in the international foreign exchange market, used to measure the degree of exchange rate changes of the US dollar against a basket of currencies.


It measures the strength of the US dollar by calculating the combined rate of change of the US dollar and a selected basket of currencies, indirectly reflecting changes in the US export competitiveness and import costs. ifUSDXA decline indicates that the US dollar has depreciated against other major currencies.


8Statement from the Open Market Committee Meeting of the Federal Reserve


Importance: Market in the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee(FOMC)every year8On the eve of the upcoming meeting, I always like to guess and predict the direction of the interest rate policy, even being meticulous in tone and wording.


mainlyFOMCIt is the ruler that determines the direction of US interest rates, and interest rates are the most important factor in the future growth of the US economy. Their changes will affect consumer spending, corporate profits, government budgets, stocks, bonds, and the value of the US dollar.


Interest rates not only directly affect the United States, but also directly affect Hong Kong, as Hong Kong implements**Exchange rates, therefore, among numerous US economic data,FOMCThe post meeting statement can be said to be the most direct impact of US economic data or indicators on the Hong Kong market.


And every timeFOMCWhen there is a discrepancy between the post meeting statement and market predictions, or a change in wording, it is inevitable to cause fluctuations in the investment market.


9Number of weekly unemployment benefit applicants


This indicator is also one of the most prominent economic indicators in the market. Because employment is a forward-looking indicator that involves future economic development drivers. At present, the United States is a fully consumer society, and consumer desire is the biggest driving force of the economy. If many Americans lose their jobs every week and apply for unemployment benefits, it will seriously suppress consumer confidence.


Due to the weekly release of data, which is the focus of the investment market, the significant increase in unemployment has also increased the financial pressure on the US government. This is also a test for the US economy, which has suffered from the "double red syndrome". Therefore, the government will adopt corresponding policies to stimulate the economic momentum.


10、EIAStorage report


US Energy Information Administration(EIA)Provide weekly reports on the storage of petroleum products in the United States. Petroleum, as one of the most important commodities, has had an increasing impact on the world economy in recent years, with its significance surpassing that of the economy itself. If the inventory of petroleum products decreases, leading to an increase in oil prices, it may have a negative impact on economic activity and also raise concerns among investors about inflation and rising interest rates.

Message:

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US crude oil: fixed margin400USD in one hand/1000Bucket, Fluctuation0.04USD return, fluctuating0.01USD profit and loss10USD, no spread, no overnight fee.


Silver: Fixed margin600USD in one hand/5000Ounces, fluctuating0.016USD return, fluctuating0.005USD profit and loss25USD, no spread, no overnight fee.


beautifulgoldMargin estimate600USD in one hand/100Ounces, fluctuating0.4USD return, fluctuating0.1USD profit and loss10USD, no spread, no overnight fee.


Natural gas: fixed deposit400USD in one hand/10000mmBtuFluctuation0.·004USD return, fluctuating0.001USD profit and loss10USD, no spread, no overnight fee.


Brent crude oil: fixed margin400USD in one hand/1000Bucket, Fluctuation0.04USD return, fluctuating0.01USD profit and loss10USD, no spread, no overnight fee.


Meijing Copper: Fixed deposit600USD in one hand/25000Pound, fluctuation0.0020USD return, fluctuating0.0005Profit and loss12.5USD, no spread, no overnight fee.


Hang Seng Index: Fixed Margin600USD in one hand/50Hong Kong dollar, fluctuation4HKD payback, fluctuation1Profit and loss of Hong Kong dollars50Hong Kong dollars, no spread, no overnight fee.
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