On Jin at this moment:1.20Review of Crude Oil and Gold Market and Analysis of Next Week's Trend

On Jin at this moment:1.20crude oilgoldMarket Review and Analysis of Next Week's Trends



Dear friends, it's the weekend again.
      In the busy week of the past, some people have gained a lot, while others have to clean up the leftovers. Instead of beating their chests and feet, it is better to reflect on the reasons for their failure in the market. Only by constantly identifying their shortcomings can they continue to improve. No one is born on the peak, and everyone has experienced countless setbacks to succeed. The same principle applies to becoming a successful investor. Reflecting on shortcomings and humbly learning can lead to continuous progress. In the investment market, it's not about who wins or loses, but about who can go further. Only by immersing oneself in it can we see through the essence of this investment market. Hesitation and stubbornness are the most wrong investment attitudes.


Review of crude oil market


Friday Beijing Time（1month19Day)00:00United States Energy Information Administration（EIA）Published as of1month12Daily and weekly crude oil inventory decrease686.1Ten thousand barrels, continuous9The weekly record showed a decline, with the decrease far exceeding expectations353.6Ten thousand barrels, the previous value is a decrease494.8Ten thousand barrels. After the data was released, oil prices rose slightly in the short term.


Specific data display, as of1month12An increase in gasoline inventory for the current week362Ten thousand barrels, continuous10The weekly growth is expected to increase342.6Ten thousand barrels, the previous value is an increase413.5Ten thousand barrels; Decreased refined oil inventory recorded for the week388.7Ten thousand barrels, continuous4After a weekly increase, this week's record fell, and2017year10month27New low since the beginning of the week, expected to increase8.6Ten thousand barrels, the previous value is an increase425.4Ten thousand barrels; During the week, crude oil inventories in the Cushing area of Oklahoma recorded a decrease418.4Ten thousand barrels, continuous4The weekly record fell and hit2004year4month16New low since the beginning of the week, with a decrease in the previous value239.5Ten thousand barrels.


Friday（1month19In the morning session of the Asian market, crude oil experienced a significant decline, briefly falling below key support levels during trading63.3and63US dollar first line, current report63.24The US dollar. althoughEIACrude oil inventory decline exceeds expectations and achieves9The continuous decline has led to a rebound in oil prices, but due to the recent increase in US crude oil production, oil prices have fallen again. At this moment, analysts personally believe that the rebound in US production and the approaching end of the winter demand peak are causing concern among bulls, overshadowing the positive news of continued significant decline in crude oil inventoriesOPECThe aspect has also been raised2018Nian FeiOPECThe expected production and short-term oil prices still face further downside risks,63The US dollar barrier is on the brink of collapse.

Crude oil market analysis and next week's strategy:


　　从日线上来看，日线逐渐收阴，预示油价有回调的迹象。同时前期由于油价涨势过于凶猛，油价连涨过后周期指标也急需一次修复，昨天美盘的反抽没有持续多久，就再次走出回落，早间继续下行，日线是在高位收阴，上方日线5The daily moving average is suppressing at a downward corner and running again10Below the daily moving average, for the trend, there will be a sharp drop in crude oil prices in the near future.


　　而昨天说前些日的收阴没延续，昨天美盘冲高后弱势震荡，日线最终再次收阴，目前原油进入高位转换阶段，上涨减缓，KThe line indicator is at a high level of divergence that needs to be digested, but currently the turning point still lacks a stop up pattern and has entered a stage of repeated exploration and decline. dayKThe position is already on the high side, coupled with a lack of momentum to rise in the past few trading days, short-term volume may decline. Pay attention to the correction of high-level decline in the future, currently waitingKLine conversion turning.


　　4On the hourly chart, the overall trend of the cycle tends to be bullish. Although yesterday's oil price retracement seemed fierce, the decline was not too significant and there was some weakness in the future, so it was only a technical adjustment and correction. The oil price is running below the resistance level of the middle track of the Bollinger Bands for four hours. In the short term, it is suppressed by the resistance of the middle track, and the Bollinger Bands are running flat; Overall, the author believes that with the recent rise in oil prices, it has briefly touched4In recent years, with high prices, the risk of a pullback has gradually deepened. In addition, with all the good news coming out, oil prices have entered a pullback stage. Therefore, it is recommended to be cautious in going long next week. In short-term operations, the author suggests that we should seize the opportunity to rebound, with high prices as the main focus and low highs as a supplement. The following is a key focus62.5Frontline support, attention from above63.6-64.0A line of resistance.


Gold news:
       Friday（1month19The market is now deeply concerned about the possibility of the US government shutting down from this weekend, as US decision-makers have not yet reached a consensus on the budget. The White House budget director believes that the probability of a government shutdown is50%Senate Majority Leader McConnell stated that the Budget Office is preparing for a government shutdown. The White House spokesperson stated that due to the risk of government shutdown, US President Trump has cancelled his trip to Florida; House Majority Leader McCarthy will not attend the Davos Forum; Vice President Pence will travel to the Middle East as planned; The military will continue to operate. US President Trump tweeted on Friday that a government shutdown is the most serious matter that could result in casualties and other accidents. However, concerns about the US government shutdown did not have a significant impact on the global market, but later this week it affected the buying frenzy in the US stock market, which in turn affectedforeign exchangeMarket.


Gold market analysis and next week's strategy:


　　周五黄金强势攀升，美市盘中最高上探至1337.90The gold price has risen1330upper. The US dollar continues to decline, and the US dollar index is still hovering at a three-and-a-half-year low. Due to the risk of a government shutdown in the United States, risk aversion increased on Friday, providing support for gold and silver. Yesterday's intraday announcement of the United States1The initial value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for the month is94.4Falls short of previous values and expectations; The survey shows that personal financial conditions and purchasing intentions remain strong, and the purchase of durable consumer goods by households has fallen back to pre holiday levels. Currently, from a technical perspective, the immediate resistance level of gold is at1340Nearby, if you break this level, gold may cross over4Month high resistance level1344Nearby, and rush up to1350Region. In terms of the downward trend, immediate support is provided1333-32dollar/Ounce, if it falls below this level, it may be tested1325Level, next is1320The support position. Looking at the daily chart of gold, the moving average is bullish, and the normal upward trend is stable. In terms of trend direction, multiple parties still hold the dominant position in the market, but due to the recent increase in gold prices100Above the US dollar, the market urgently needs a decent pullback andMACDThe situation has reached a dead cross, indicating that the short-term correction will continue briefly. At this moment, analysts suggest focusing on the high altitude, low altitude, and long range for next week's operations.


writing/On Jin at this moment VX：lunjin668  Official account: On Gold at the Moment