Crossing the Sea2018year1month8day

Crossing the Sea

2018

year

1

month

8

day

Focus this week:
1month8day(Monday)
U.S.A12Monthly employment trend index

1month9day(Tuesday)
U.S.A11Monthly Consumer Credit
U.S.A12monthNFIBSmall Business Confidence Index
U.S.A11monthJOLTSVacancies

1month10day(Wednesday)
U.S.A12Monthly import price rate
U.S.A12月出口物价月率
U.S.A11月批发库存月率修订
U.S.A11Monthly wholesale sales rate

1month11day(Thursday)
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
Number of Americans reapplying for unemployment benefits
U.S.A12Monthly final demandPPI
U.S.A12Monthly deduction of final demand for food and energyPPI
U.S.A12Monthly deduction of final demand for food, energy, and tradePPI

1month12day(Friday)
U.S.A12Monthly federal budget
U.S.A12monthCPI‧coreCPI
U.S.A12Monthly average monthly rate of actual income per week
U.S.A12Monthly retail sales rate
U.S.A12Monthly retail sales rate after deducting cars
U.S.A11Monthly commercial inventory rate



Important economic data released today:  
06：30Australia12monthAIG建筑业指数‧Previous value57.5
15：00Germany11Monthly industrial order rate‧forecast0.7%‧Previous value0.5%
16：15Switzerland12Monthly consumer price index(CPI)Monthly rate‧Previous value-0.1%
16：15Switzerland12Monthly consumer price index(CPI)the annual rate‧forecast0.8%‧Previous value0.8%
16：30britain12monthHalifaxMonthly rate of housing price index‧Previous value0.5%
16：30UK as of12Three months of the monthHalifaxAnnual rate of housing price index‧Previous value3.9%
17：30eurozone1Monthly Investor Confidence Index‧Previous value31.1
18：00eurozone11Monthly retail sales rate‧Previous value-1.1%
18：00eurozone11Monthly retail sales annual rate‧Previous value0.4%
18：00eurozone12Monthly Enterprise Prosperity Index‧Previous value1.49
18：00eurozone12Monthly Economic Prosperity Index‧forecast114.9‧Previous value114.6
18：00eurozone12Monthly Industrial Prosperity Index‧Previous value8.2
18：00eurozone12Monthly Service Industry Prosperity Index‧Previous value16.3
18：00eurozone12Monthly Consumer Confidence Index‧forecast0.5‧Previous value0.5
18：00eurozone12Monthly Consumer Inflation Expectation Index‧Previous value16
18：00eurozone12月生产者通胀预期指数‧Previous value11.1
23：00U.S.A12Monthly employment trend index‧Previous value135.9

1month9day (Tuesday)
04：00U.S.A11Monthly Consumer Credit‧Forecast increase187.5Billion‧Previous value increase205.2Billion



1month5day
LondongoldMorning order price:1317.90
London gold afternoon fixing price:1317.15



Today's Introduction
Friday/克利夫兰联储总裁梅斯特预计通胀将在未来几年持续回升至2%Goal of
费城联储总裁哈克称2018年升息两次是合适的

U.S.AISM12The monthly non manufacturing index is55.9
U.S.A11The monthly trade deficit is505.0USD100mn
U.S.A11月工厂订单较上月增加1.3%
U.S.A11月耐用品订单确认为较前月增加1.3%
U.S.A12Monthly increase in non farm employment opportunities14.8Ten thousand



XAU London Gold -美元弱势稍缓，金银面临回吐风险

伦敦黄金上周五小幅回跌，市场人士对这周以来升至三个半月高位的涨势锁定利润，且尽管美国12月就业数据弱于预期，但美元上涨。金价周五尾盘报1320水平，脱离了周四高位1325.86美元，周线上涨1.3%，并且录得第四周连涨。美国12月非农就业报告弱于预期，美元短暂下跌，但之后回升，因投资者预计该报告不会影响美联储在今年进行多次加息，尽管是以循序渐进的步伐进行加息。数据显示，美国非农就业岗位在11月急增25.2万个后12Monthly increase only14.8万个，因零售业就业岗位减少2.03Ten thousand, for3月以来的最大降幅。失业率保持在17年低位的4.1%。12Monthly average hourly wage increase0.09USD, or0.3%，前月增长了0.1%。薪资年增长率从11month2.4%Increase to2.5%，这在一定程度上缓解了就业岗位增长不及预期的影响。根据路透对CME GroupFederal Funds Ratefutures走势的分析，交易商维持对联储今年至少加息两次的预期。

技术走势而言，相对强弱指标及随机指数已于超买区域有着初步的掉头迹象，需开始警戒着金价即将有回吐风险。下方支持料为1313and1298美元。若果由12month12Daily low1235.92至目前高位1325.86美元的累计涨幅接近90美元计算，38.2%and50%的调整为1291and1281USD,61.8%Then it is1270。上方阻力预估在1332，关键料为100Monthly average line1342To the extent that1350Horizontal.

London Gold2018year1month8 - 12day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1316 –1332
Resistance level:1341–1365 –1379
Support bit:1307–1293 –1269

London Gold2018year1month8day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1308 –1330
Resistance level:1340–1360
Support bit:1298–1286

SPDR GoldTrustGold holdings:
12month11Day -842.81ton
12month12Day -842.81ton
12month13Day -844.29ton
12month14Day -844.29ton
12month15Day -844.29ton
12month18Day -837.20ton
12month19Day -836.02ton
12month20Day -836.02ton
12month21Day -836.02ton
12month26Day -837.50ton
12month27Day -837.50ton
12month28Day -837.50ton
12month29Day -837.50ton
1month2Day -836.32ton
1month3Day -836.32ton
1month4Day -836.04ton
1month5Day -834.86ton

12Maturity date of monthly gold futures:12month27day
12Monthly goldoptionDue date:11month27day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Data source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2017year12month)

Global:33604.1ton (+104.5ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3373.6ton (-0.1ton)
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.9ton
China(6)：1842.6ton
Russia(7)：1801.2ton (+22.3ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver -慎防白银调整风险

伦敦白银方面，银价周五触及六周高点17.29美元，当前向上阻力先会参考去年11month17Daily high17.37as well as10month16Daily high17.46美元；较大阻力估计为18.00and18.30美元。不过，图表见RSI及随机指数已陷入严重超买区域，同时随机指数已走出了三级背驰，银价回调风险正在逐渐加大。以这轮的累计升幅计算，38.2%and50%的回调水平为16.62and16.42Expand to61.8%Then in the16.22美元。较重要支撑预估会指向16The US dollar barrier.

London Silver2018year1month8 - 12day
Predicting early wave amplitude:16.90 –17.50
Resistance level:17.70–18.00 –18.30
Support bit:16.70–16.30 –16.10

London Silver2018year1month8day
Predicting early wave amplitude:16.90 –17.50
Resistance level:17.70–18.00
Support bit:16.50–16.30

iSharesSilver TrustSilver holdings:
12month18Day - 10150.22ton
12month19Day - 10150.22ton
12month20Day - 10150.22ton
12month21Day - 10150.22ton
12month26Day - 10126.74ton
12month27Day - 10101.80ton
12month28Day - 10060.72ton
12month29Day - 9972.70ton
1month2Day - 9972.70ton
1month3Day - 9968.64ton
1month4Day - 9904.09ton
1month5Day - 9904.09ton



EUR euro -非美严重超买，慎防调整风险

U.S.A12月新增就业岗位不及预期，因零售业就业人数减少；但月薪增长加快，直指劳动力市场强劲，可能为美国联邦储备理事会(FED)3月升息铺路。劳工部周五称，美国非农就业岗位在11月急增25.2万个后12Monthly increase only14.8Ten thousand, the unemployment rate remains at17年低位的4.1%。路透调查的经济学家预计，12Monthly job creation19Ten thousand.12Monthly average hourly wage increase0.09USD, or0.3%，前月增长了0.1%。薪资年增长率从11month2.4%Increase to2.5%，这在一定程度上缓解了就业岗位增长不及预期的影响。

技术走势而言，自去年八月起始，图表见欧元兑美元走势形成了一组三角型态，至上周汇价已初步向上突破位于1.1910的三角顶部，或见欧元仍可维持升势。向上较大阻力将见于1.2090and1.22Horizontal, further observation200Monthly average line1.2430。支持位可先瞩目于1.20关口，本周初至今，连日低位亦是刚好贴近1.20关口附近，故后市仍当留意这位置，但若失守，则恐防欧元会走出较具规模调，较大支持料为1.1930and25Balance moving average1.1860Horizontal.

Focus:
1month8day(one): Germany11Monthly industrial order rate‧eurozone1Monthly Investor Confidence Index‧eurozone11Monthly retail sales‧eurozone12Monthly Enterprise Prosperity Index‧Economic Sentiment Index‧工业景气指数‧服务业景气指数‧Consumer confidence index‧消费者通胀预期指数‧生产者通胀预期指数
1month9day(two): Germany11Monthly industrial production rate‧trade balance‧France11Monthly current account‧trade balance‧eurozone11Monthly unemployment rate
1month10day(three): France11Monthly industrial production rate
1month11day(four): Eurozone11Monthly industrial production
1month12day(five): Italy11Monthly industrial production

Related news
eurozone12Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)Initial value increased compared to the same period last year1.4%
eurozone12Monthly deduction of food and energyHICPInitial value increased compared to the same period last year1.1%
eurozone11Monthly Producer Price Index(PPI)Up from the previous month0.6%
eurozone11Monthly Producer Price Index(PPI)Increase compared to the same period last year2.8%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance1.2090 –1.2200 –1.2430
support1.2000 –1.1930 –1.1860



JPY yen -美元受升息预期推动上涨

美元周五上涨，曾一度短暂下跌，因投资者认为弱于预期的12月就业报告不会使美国联邦储备理事会(FED)脱离今年多次升息的轨道。上月新增非农就业岗位14.8万个，分析师预计新增19万个。不及预期的数据发布后美元一度下滑，但之后重获动能。根据CMEofFedwatch，联邦基金利率期货消化的3月升息可能性超过60%。报告中的一个亮点是薪资增长。12Monthly average hourly wage increase0.09USD, or0.3%，前月增长了0.1%。薪资年增长率从11month2.4%Increase to2.5%。

技术走势而言，预计美元兑日圆向上阻力先会参考去年12Monthly high113.74，较大阻力则指向114.50and115关口。相对强弱指标及随机指数已作回升，汇价仍反弹动力。预估目前较近支持在112and111.40水平；若果以自九月低位至十一月高位的累计涨幅计算，50%and61.8%的回吐幅度为111and110.15Horizontal.

Focus:
1month9day(two): Japan11Monthly overtime pay annual rate‧Japan12Monthly Consumer Confidence Index
1month11day(four): Japan12monthforeign exchangereserve‧Japan11Monthly Simultaneous Indicator Monthly Rate‧Leading indicator monthly rate
1month12day(five): Japan12Monthly bank loan annual rate‧日本上周日本投资外国债券‧Last week, foreign investment in Japanese stocks‧Japan11月流动帐平衡‧Japan12Monthly Service Industry Prosperity Index--经济观察者调查

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance113.74 –114.50 –115.00
support112.00 –111.40 –110.15



GBP pound -关注退欧谈判

英镑兑美元周五持稳，上周英国公布的经济数据暗示，去年年底英国经济增长加快，企业对于接下来的一年变得更为乐观。不过这对英镑影响不大。周五公布的数据显示，英国去年第三季经济生产率创下逾六年的最快增幅，但绝对值仍仅仅略高于近10年前的水平。这报告没有对英镑提供进一步的支撑。英镑兑美元周三曾触及三个半月高点1.3614英镑，距离退欧公投后的最高点不到0.5美分。路透调查周五显示，策略师预期今年英镑兑走势震荡的美元和不断走强的欧元基本持稳，但其表现很大程度上将取决于英国和欧盟退欧磋商进展。这次调查在2018年第一周进行，策略师对下一阶段英国退欧谈判并不乐观，但大多数人认为英镑不会再次大跌。

技术图表见，相对强弱指标及随机指数已陷入超买区域，英镑兑美元短期或会稍缓近月以来的升势。阻力位可参考去年9Monthly high1.3656Further observation1.38水平。至于下方支持先看25Balance moving average1.3420水平，关键将会是起延自今年三月的上升趋向线位于1.3280，此区同时亦是若100天平均线位置，需慎防若汇价跌破此区，或会破坏整体的上升态势。

Focus:
1month8day(one): UK12monthHalifaxMonthly rate of housing price index‧by12Three months of the monthHalifaxAnnual rate of housing price index
1month9day(two): UK12monthBRC同店零售销售年率
1month10day(three): UK11月建筑业产出‧industrial production ‧Manufacturing output‧对非欧盟地区贸易平衡‧全球商品贸易平衡

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance1.3656 –1.3800
support1.3420 –1.3280



CHF Swiss franc -陷于回调

美元兑瑞郎走势，相对强弱指标及随机指数呈现向上，示意汇价仍有回升倾向。向上阻力预估为250Balance moving average0.9830，进一步则于1.00关口。下方支撑回看0.97and0.9560，关键支持预估为0.95Horizontal.

Focus:
1month8day(one)Switzerland12monthCPI
1month9day(two)Switzerland12Monthly unemployment rate‧Switzerland11Monthly retail sales annual rate

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance0.9830 –1.0000
support0.9700 –0.9560 –0.9500



AUD AUD -稳步上扬，0.80关口受考验

技术走势而言，澳元兑美元已明确冲破250天平均线，后市有望继续延展上涨行情；预计当前阻力先为0.79，之后延伸较大阻力将为0.80关口以及参考去年9Monthly high0.8125。不过，亦要留意0.79这个水平在去年十月已曾限制澳元反弹，如今再度挑战此区，若短期无法突破，配合相对强弱指标及随机指数均走入超买区域，或见澳元存在回调风险。下方支撑可回看100Balance moving average0.7770as well as250平均线0.7680Horizontal.

Focus:
1month8day(one): Australia12monthAIG建筑业指数
1month9day(two): Australia11Monthly building permit rate‧Australia12monthANZ整体招聘广告月率‧Previous value1.5%
1month11day(four): Australia11Monthly retail sales rate

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance0.8000 –0.8125
support0.7770 –0.7680



NZD New Zealand dollars -技术超买压力，纽元升势暂缓

技术图表所见，鉴于RSI及随机指数均已达至严重超买区域，估计纽元兑美元再而上升的动力将为有限。以去年11month17Daily low0.6781起始的累计涨幅计算，38.2%and50%的调整水平为0.6995and0.6955Expand to61.8%Then it is0.6915。关键支持重探0.6780。至于若然向上突破，预计延伸目标会在估0.72及回看去年9Monthly high0.7435Horizontal.

Related news
1month12day(five): New Zealand11Monthly building permit rate

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance0.7200 –0.7435
support0.6995 –0.6955 –0.6915



CAD Cad -就业数据提升本月加息机率

加拿大周五公布的政府报告显示，12月就业岗位增幅远超分析师预期，使得市场对加拿大央行本月稍晚实施7月以来第三次升息的预期大增。加拿大统计局周五公布，12Monthly increase in employment opportunities7.86万个，完全碾压分析师预期的增加1,000个。失业率亦降至41Annual low point5.7%。货币市场数据显示，加拿大央行本月升息的机率接近翻倍至65%。在该消息影响下，加元汇率迅速跳升，兑美元最高升至1.2351加元，数据公布前报1.2505。加拿大两年期公债收益率大涨至1.786%of2011year6月以来高位。加拿大央行曾表示，将以未来公布的数据作为指引，并称央行更加有信心，认为经济对刺激措施的依赖将逐渐降低。央行于去年7月实施七年来首次升息，此后于9月再次上调利率。目前加拿大指标利率为1%. Canada12月兼职岗位大增5.49万个，全职岗位增加2.37万个。就业岗位较上年同期增加42.25万个或2.3%, for2007year11月以来最大增幅。另外，加拿大统计局还公布11The monthly trade deficit is25.4亿加元，进口创下逾八年多来最大增幅；10Monthly correction to deficit15.5亿。加拿大央行长期以来一直对出口表现不放心，不过该行业在11月表现不错，商品出口增长3.7%，创下一年来最高。不过这一利好被进口增长5.8%所抵消，该增幅是2009year7Monthly increase7.8%以来最大。

美元兑加元方面，技术图表所见，汇价在上周已跌破100Balance moving average1.26水平，破坏了此前两个月来的横盘格局。以9to10月的累计涨幅计算，50%and61.8%的调整幅度分别为1.2490and1.2385。估计较大支撑则在1.22水平。至于向上阻力则会先瞩目于25Balance moving average1.2730，这段期间的波动亦以此指标为重要顶部；下一级关键阻力则在1.2920, from10月底以来汇价曾几度考验此区，但均是无功而返，包括最近于11month30日所见的高位1.2909and12month19Of1.2918，两次都见未能破位后出现明显回挫。

Focus:
1month9day(two): Canada12Monthly housing construction annual rate
1month10day(three): Canada11Monthly building permit rate
1month11day(four): Canada11月新屋价格月率

Related news
Canada11Monthly trade deficit25.4100 million Canadian dollars
Canada12The monthly unemployment rate has decreased5.7%
Canada12Monthly increase in employment opportunities7.86万个，全职就业增加2.37Ten thousand
Canada12monthIveyPurchasing Manager Index(PMI)经季调后为60.4，未经调整为49.3

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance1.2730 –1.2920*
support1.2490 –1.2385



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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)