卫津承：税改恐加重黄金下跌风险？12.20今日黄金怎么看？

内容概要：1.12.19gold行情回顾，黄金为何由涨转跌？2.美国税改进程进行到那一步，对于黄金有什么影响？3.后市黄金将涨至1334美元，卫津承为何这么分析的理由；4.12.20黄金今日怎么操作，今日黄金走势怎么看？5.黄金市场的规律性，如何减低风险扩大利润？

回顾昨日黄金行情，12month19日黄金为何由涨转跌？

    现货黄金周二（12month19日）由涨转跌，金价在1260dollar/盎司关口挣扎，美市盘中最低下探至1259.34dollar/盎司，金价此前接近测试200日均线的位置，但未能成功。由于金价未能突破200日均线，技术性买盘显得比较缓慢，再加上即将到来的周末圣诞假期，黄金的走势将转为低迷。周二美国共和党税改法案最终以227票赞成及203票反对在众议院获得通过，但由于税改议案在参议院发生程序性障碍，众议院周三（12month20日）将针对税改议案重新投票。日内公布数据显示，美国11月新屋开工129.7万，高于预期125Wan, Chuang2016year10月来新高。

税改计划进行到那一部分，后市黄金走势该如何判断？

    美国税制改革即将立法成功。美国共和党控制的国会看起来本周几乎肯定会通过全面税改议案，此前两名尚未表态的共和党参议员周一(12month18day)同意支持总统特朗普力推的税改案，特朗普将在总统任期满11个月之际，斩获首个立法成果。金价自上周从5个月低点开始强势反弹之后，已连续5个交易日保持高位交投状态，欧盘时段，由于美元持续疲软，而税改信息仍不确定，黄金乘势继续走高。此外由于美国债收益率温和起涨，而欧股开盘表现谨慎，避险情绪继续占据主导优势。截至目前较5个月低点，金价已经反弹2.5%，无限逼近200-SMA大关，后期能否突破仍待观测。

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卫津承个人观点：

    后市黄金应该怎么看?加息后黄金一路慢涨为多头打好坚实基础，加之税改的通过也并不是一帆风顺，侧面反映美国对于税改的想法也不是一致，那么也就存在着本质上的分歧，也就是说对于税改的不积极表现对美元的提振程度也会相当有限。加之本周经济数据相比上周略为清淡，而且圣诞节前市场流动性有所降低。所以卫津承认为，及时税改通过黄金也不会有大幅回调的可能。不能把握准进场点位，需要的朋友私聊津承交流jinsanzao或关注津承威-波及威-行朋友圈的每日黄金crude oil行情分析更新。

卫津承：今日黄金走势怎么看？12.20Analysis of Gold Technology

日线方面：
    日线上，昨日黄金再次刷新新高，可惜最后没能守住，目前KThe line is still inMA5Between the moving average and the middle rail of the Bollinger belt, but the middle rail of the Bollinger belt is pressed down to1266Frontline, andMA5Still in1258.5Form a support point and still wear it upMA10The state of forming a golden fork, with attached indicatorsMACDAlthough the Yin star was reduced yesterday, the golden cross of the fast and slow lines has still been formed, and the energy column has been initially scaled down. Gold will still be on the watch for the day1258-1266The attack and defense situation.

4In terms of hours:

    4As a child, due to a wave of decline last night4hourMA5andMA10The moving averages are glued together, with attached indicatorsMACDThe fast and slow lines are also glued together, showing signs of a dead cross in both pairs. However, due to the rise in early trading, coupled withKThe line runs in the strong area of the upper track in the Bollinger belt,MACDIt also runs onOAbove the axis, so even if this dead fork forms a decline, it will not be too much, and we will also pay attention to the middle track of the Bollinger belt in the day1258And the Bollinger Belt1265上轨的攻防情况。

小时线方面：

    小时线上，昨晚收盘之前的连续几根阳线，将美盘的死叉下跌基本走完了，目前小时线上MA5Upper dressingMA10The moving average forms a golden cross, with attached indicatorsMACDThe fast track is starting to flatten out, with signs of crossing the slow track to form a golden cross. The weak energy in the energy column is also gradually weakening, and if prices can rise to1263On the front line, there will be another shock wave in the future1266阻力点。

    Based on comprehensive analysis, gold is currently continuously hitting the upper resistance, but unfortunately there is still a lack of strength. If it can make another upward surge and stabilize above the daily Bollinger Belt's mid track, it will continue to hit new highs in the future, and the operation will still be maintained1258-1260区间做多单为主。

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卫津承：今日黄金该如何操作？12.20Gold operation suggestions

Empty order strategy:

Gold rebound1264及上方分批做空(买跌)十分之三仓位，止损1268Above, target1258-1254。

Multi order strategy:

Gold Callback1259附近轻仓做多(买涨)十分之一仓位，止损3Points, target1264Near.

Gold Callback1253附近直接干多(买涨)十分之二仓位，止损1250Below, target1259-1264。

为何你在黄金市场频频亏损，有考虑过原因吗？如果没有！建议各位学员参考津承对于黄金市场规律的总结及控制风险的技巧；

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卫津承：12.20黄金多空单如何解套？

1.目前行情一路上涨，上方的1268的多单又再看到了曙光，但是无奈下方的空单又陷入了一个死循环当中，1250-1240的朋友们叫苦连天，怪行情，怪老师，怪这不争气的手，昨日一举突破1260的压制，飞速到达62-63一线，目前在此位震徘徊，一但突破就继续上攻，但是在这里不得不提醒上方多单的朋友们，我在昨日的文章中也写过，目前黄金现在真正的多空分水岭在1280这个位置，如果在1290乃至更上方的多单尽量需要抓住上涨减仓，目前黄金上方的强阻在1268附近，破位我们再考虑手上的多单是否持有！

2.而对于下方1245-1240空单的朋友，目前的行情趋势是看涨的，但是周四的税改无疑给了空头一丝希望，但是从上次加息来看，黄金不跌反涨，而从上几周税改的消息提前公布来看，此次的利空因素已经多数被消化，你们的空单可以拿至周四看税改的利空程度如何，如果下跌力度不大，选择回调的机会多数减仓，周四利空因素下全部出局，不要抱着侥幸的心理去对待，后面的盈利机会很多，选择一位合适的老师，一份稳健的操作建议，无疑对你来说是现在急需的。

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卫津承寄语：

    卫津承这里没有华丽的语言，只有实实在在的交易，以及明明郎朗的操作，市场只有一个方向，不是多头也不是空头，而是做对的方向。合理的风控+Good investment returns allow every individual investor to find the true joy of investing, instead of constantly increasing losses due to their daily hard trading. I have always believed that choice is more important than effort. A good mentor and technical team should not only bring profits to customers, but also be responsible for them. Individual investors, relying solely on their own efforts to face the market, are prone to being caught off guard when faced with sudden rises and falls. However, if someone can see the situation clearly and provide direction outside the circle, they can do better.

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