NFX品汇国际：美加息美元再次“买预期卖事实”

Market Review
　　在周三的foreign exchange市场上，美元呈大幅下跌的走势，美元指数最高上涨到94.11, 最低下跌到93.41, closing at93.43。欧美最高上涨到1.18260，最低下跌到1.17300, closing at1.18160。
　　今天凌晨3点美联储宣布将联邦基金基准利率区间上调25Bps to1.25%-1.50%。不过他们暗示，2019年的加息次数或将减少一次。据CME“美联储观察”，利率决议公布之后，美联储明年3Monthly interest rate increase25Bps to1.5%-1.75%The probability of the interval is50.5%，与决议公布之前持平，明年6月至该区间的概率为43.6%。决议公布后美元指数刷新日低至93.40。
　　美联储在最新的预估中承认，经济在今年已经提速，并上调了未来几年经济成长预估，下调了失业率预估。美联储预计明后两年将各加息三次，达到长期水准2.8%，这和9月所做的预估一致。不过之前公布的核心消费者物价数据显示通胀放缓，令市场担心美联储明年实施多次加息的可能性下降。
从技术上来看,美指周三反弹受阻在94.15之上，以大阴线跌破93.50的支持，收盘在93.43,意味着美元短线反弹后可能会继续向下回调。汇价连续跌破5、10、20日均线的支持，如果美指今天反弹在93.65If there is a hindrance below, the goal of future correction will be directed towards93.20—93.00。
[Trading Strategy]
US dollar index: can be found in93.65—93.00Sell at the upper limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit25Point stop loss, with the target at the lower limit of the range.
Euro/USD: can be used in1.18800---1.17900Buying at the lower limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit350Point stop loss, the target is at the upper limit of the range.
GBP/USD: can be used in1.34900---1.33800Buying at the lower limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit400Point stop loss, the target is at the upper limit of the range.
USD/Ruilang: You can find0.98750---0.97900间上限卖出，有效破位350Stop loss at one point, with the target at the lower limit of the range.
USD/Japanese yen: can be used in113.250---112.150Sell at the upper limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit400Stop loss at one point, with the target at the lower limit of the range.
AUD/USD: can be used in0.76650---0.76050Buying at the lower limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit300Point stop loss, the target is at the upper limit of the range.
USD/CAD: Can be used in1.28550---1.27650Sell at the upper limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit400Stop loss at one point, with the target at the lower limit of the range.
　　gold: Can be found in the1262.00—1250.00Buying at the lower limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit5美元止损，目标在区间的上限。
白银：可以在16.300—15.950Buying at the lower limit of the range, effectively breaking the limit0.150美元止损，目标在区间的上限。
Today's Key Financial Data and Events
① 07:00 美联储理事布雷纳德在纽约联储共同举办的一项活动上致开幕词
② 08:30 Australia11Unemployment rate after quarterly adjustment
③ 15:45 France11monthCPIMonthly rate
④ 16:00 France12Monthly manufacturing industryPMIinitial value
⑤ 16:30 Germany12Monthly manufacturing industryPMI初值、瑞士至12month14日存款利率
⑥ 17:00 eurozone12Monthly manufacturing industryPMIInitial valueIEA月报、俄罗斯总统普京年度新闻发布会
⑦ 17:30 britain11Monthly retail sales rate after quarterly adjustment
⑧ 20:00 英国央行利率决议及会议纪要
⑨ 20:45 The European Central Bank Announces Interest Rate Resolutions
10 21:30 From the United States to12month9Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week, United States11Monthly retail sales rate
⑪ 21:30 欧洲央行行长德拉基召开新闻发布会、美国11Monthly Import Price Index Monthly Rate
⑫ 22:45 U.S.A12monthMarkitmanufacturingPMI初值、美国12monthMarkitService industryPMIinitial value
⑬ 23:00 U.S.A10Monthly commercial inventory rate
⑭ 23:30 From the United States to12month8Day and WeekEIANatural gas inventory