Crossing the Sea 2017year12month11day (Gold)

Crossing the Sea

2017

year

12

month

11

day

Focus this week:
12month11day(Monday)
U.S.A10monthJOLTSVacancies

12month12day(Tuesday)
U.S.A11monthPPI

12month13day(Wednesday)
U.S.A11Monthly federal budget
U.S.A11monthCPI‧coreCPI
U.S.A11Monthly average monthly rate of actual income per week

12month14day(Thursday)
美国联邦基金利率目标
U.S.A11Monthly import price rate
U.S.A11月出口物价月率
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
U.S.A11Monthly retail sales rate
U.S.A12monthMarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value
U.S.A12monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value
U.S.A12monthMarkitService industryPMIinitial value
U.S.A10月企业库存月率

12month15day(Friday)
U.S.A12Monthly New York Federal Reserve Bank Manufacturing Index
U.S.A11Monthly industrial production rate
U.S.A11Monthly manufacturing output rate
U.S.A11Monthly capacity utilization rate

12month16day(Saturday)
U.S.A10Monthly overall capital flow



Important economic data released today:  
07：50 日本第四季大型制造业景气判断指数‧Front value positive9.4
17：00 Italy10月经季节调整的零售销售月率‧Previous value0.90%
17：00 Italy10月未经季节调整的零售销售年率‧Previous value3.40%
23：00 U.S.A10monthJOLTSVacancies‧forecast609.0Ten thousand‧Previous value609.3Ten thousand



12month8day
LondongoldMorning order price:1245.85
London gold afternoon fixing price:1250.65



XAU London Gold - 金价上周深陷弱势，本周聚焦联储议息

美国总统特朗普上周承认耶路撒冷为以色列首都，令敌友均感不安，一度冲击美元。不过，美国国会通过法案提供资金，暂时避免政府停摆，则令投资者更乐观预期税改议案也将获通过，美元亦得以延续周初以来的升势。美国国会赶在上周五午夜的截止期限前，于周四通过为联邦政府融资至12month22日的议案，消除了美元面临的一大阻碍。议案将递交总统特朗普以签署成法律。美国参议院共和党周三同意与众议院就广泛税改法案进行磋商，初步迹象显示议员们有望弥合分歧，在12month22日最后期限前就最终法案达成一致。本周美国、欧元区、英国和瑞士等地央行均将公布利率决议。美联储联邦基金利率futures价格显示，投资人预期美联储在12month12-13日会议上将升息，同时市场人士亦关注的美联储于2018年还会升息多少次。美国于上周五晚公布了11月就业数据，非农就业岗位增加22.8万个，稍好于预估的20万个；失业率报4.1%，与预期一致；平均时薪较前月增长0.2%Less than expected0.3%。整体数据为本周美国再次加息提供支撑基础。

伦敦黄金于上周四触及逾四个月低位1243.71美元后，周五于低位涌现买盘，在美国非农数据公布后，金价更曾攀升至1252水平上方。不过，上周金价出现连续第三周下跌，更录得5月初来的最大单周跌幅。投资者乐观地认为税改议案也会获得通过，这对美元构成支撑；不过，除了朝鲜半岛的形势受到关注以外，中东地区的紧张局面亦正诱发市场忧虑，若局势进一步恶化，这或会重新激起市场对黄金的避险买兴。

技术图表所见，金价于上周四跌破250天平均线，同时9天亦已跌破25天平均线，均示意着金价技术面弱势。若以自去年12Monthly low1122.35Until this year9Monthly high1357.57美元的累计涨幅计算，50%and61.8%的调整幅度为1240and1212美元，可作为下试支撑的依据。关键支撑则会直指1200美元关口，在今年3Month and7月的两度回踩亦是在附近位置止跌回升，其时两个低位分别为1194.55and1204.45美元；故此，若后市明确失守此1200美元关口，则黄金有机会将面临更为猛烈的跌势。不过，相对强弱指标及随机指数均已落至超卖区域，需慎防短线金价或先有着喘稳空间。上方阻力先会回看250Balance moving average1255and1270Further observation1278USD.

London Gold12month11 – 15Daily predicted wave amplitude
Resistance level:1255 – 1265 – 1288 – 1305
Support bit:1230 – 1220 – 1203 – 1188

London Gold12month11day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1239 – 1257
Resistance level:1265 – 1275 – 1288
Support bit:1230 – 1220 – 1206

SPDR GoldTrustGold holdings:
11month13Day -843.39ton
11month14Day -843.39ton
11month15Day -843.39ton
11month16Day -843.39ton
11month17Day -843.39ton
11month20Day -843.39ton
11month21Day -843.39ton
11month22Day -843.39ton
11month23Day -843.39ton
11month24Day -843.39ton
11month27Day -842.21ton
11month28Day -839.55ton
11month29Day -839.55ton
11month30Day -839.55ton
12month1Day -848.11ton
12month4Day -846.93ton
12month5Day -845.47ton
12month6Day -845.47ton
12month6Day -842.81ton

12Maturity date of monthly gold futures:12month27day
12Monthly goldoptionDue date:11month27day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Data source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2017year11month2day)

Global:33499.6ton
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3373.7ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.9ton
China(6)：1842.6ton
Russia(7)：1778.9ton
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 银价跌破区间

伦敦白银方面，过去两周白银价格显著下跌，已跌破了上月以来的横盘区间，价格近日的急速走低，亦带动之前横行的中短平均线开始下移，技术上银价料仍会延续下行，较大支持见于15.30and14.90美元，下一级指向14.40美元。至于向上阻力则料为16.20and16.60USD.

London Silver12month11 – 15Daily predicted wave amplitude:
Resistance level:16.30 – 16.80 – 17.20 – 17.60
Support bit:15.40 – 15.00 – 14.70 – 14.20

London Silver12month11day
Predicting early wave amplitude:15.50 – 16.10
Resistance level:16.30 – 16.80
Support bit:15.30 – 15.10

iSharesSilver TrustSilver holdings:
11month20Day - 9893.21ton
11month21Day - 9893.21ton
11month22Day - 9893.21ton
11month23Day - 9893.21ton
11month24Day - 9863.86ton
11month27Day - 9863.86ton
11month28Day - 9863.86ton
11month29Day - 9863.86ton
11month30Day - 9863.86ton
12month1Day - 9828.44ton
12month4Day - 9924.22ton
12month5Day - 10006.40ton
12month6Day - 10006.40ton
12month7Day - 10041.63ton
12month8Day -10,088.59ton



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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)