李文财：12.9非农行情大失所望，后市黄金依旧看跌

　　此次非农的行情文财只有两个字想说：失望。是的，非农并没有像预期一样，走一波暴跌继续下探。不过文财自本周一一直到今天一直看空goldAlthough Friday was not very satisfactory for non farm workers, it was still a relatively perfect week. Just like life, a perfect life is what everyone pursues, but it is only when there are deficiencies that it becomes more authentic, and when there are deficiencies that there is more room for progress. I never thought I could help anyone in need, but I can guarantee to help every investor who finds me.

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　　京时间周五（12month8Day)21:30，美国劳工部公布了美国11月非农报告。今晚公布的报告是美联储12月会议之前最后一份非农报告。美国劳工部公布的11Non-agricultural employment increased in the month22.8万人超过预期，但平均每小时工资年率为2.5%低于预期。非农报告公布后，美元指数短暂跳水后反弹至94.08的高位，但随后又迅速短线回落。现货金银市场同样上下震荡，9Billion US dollars and23亿美元两波买卖盘令金价呈现V型走势。而本次非农并未像预期中走出的大行情，笔者李文财认为还可能因为是昨日黄金的一波暴跌，市场提前将非农的行情走完。


　　李文财认为此次数据表现靓丽，美国11The monthly unemployment rate remains stable at4.1%Although it is unlikely to affect market expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at next week's meeting, it may affect the Federal Reserve's ability to2018年加息的力度。此外，缓慢的薪资增速或会导致美联储官员对通胀低迷的担忧加重，同时也令美联储政策前景增加了更多的不确定性。非农报告公布后，美联储12Monthly interest rate increase25Bps to1.25%-1.5%区间的概率维持在90.2%不变。同时通过这次非农可以看出特朗普减税计划的前景光明，月内最终成为美国立法的可能性较高，这对于促进资本回流和就业人口的增加大有裨益，市场预估该计划可能推动经济和通胀更快地增长，这一点未来也将在非农数据上或许也得到了反馈。

　　黄金后市行情解析及策略


　　非农的利空为黄金短线的空头没起到推波助澜的作用，目前短线表现还是在1243-1252之间展现震荡走势。现在整体的趋势并没有发生改变，依旧是处于空头之中，下方还是先看低点1243附近支撑，非农利空行情也是走在1243附近，然后短线进行反抽，说明1243附近支撑依然有效，那么后面黄金空头能否延续，主要是看此位的破位情况了，但是李文财预计，在今晚收盘前，黄金应该会走一个震荡的行情，破位的可能性不大，上方阻力先看四小时线均线MA10附近于1252附近位置，上破再看1256阻力，1252-1256是昨晚的震荡区域。不破即是我们做空的机会，所以晚间收盘前的思路依旧很明确，反弹做空即可。文财建议反弹1250-1252Short nearby, stop loss1255Target sees1243Nearby; Below1243Short positions nearby, stop loss1240Target sees1248Nearby;

　　黄金多空解单：


　　1There is Chasing Kong in hand1244Friends who haven't had a chance to sell nearby empty orders don't have to worry too much. The market is currently declining, and the Federal Reserve is also12Interest rate hikes are imminent, but the overall market is still bearish. Either patiently wait for a pullback to break even and be eliminated first, or make up positions to lower the average price and make overall profits after a pullback;


　　2As for the1255-1260For friends who have multiple orders, in order to reduce the pressure on funds, they will reduce their positions every time they are high. After each reduction, they will use the same profit to make up for it, and in the end, there will be a small loss handling fee. The advantage of this is that there are not so many green numbers and orders in your position.


　　3、1260The ones above are even higher, and currently they seem to be very deep. So what should we do? Then the only way to first control the risk is to use rebound lock loss methods, because this point cut is more painful. Unless you really want a faster method and prioritize the small for the big, it will be even harder for you to get your order. This is not only courage but also wisdom.


　　文财寄语：不要总以为行情辜负了你什么，在这个市场，没有谁活得比谁容易，交易简单就迷人：往往许多行情都如此，当你刻意追逐它时，它就会跑得飞快；而当你摒弃全抓时，严格执行计划，专心致力与某一波行情时，有些利润反而能轻易地得到。


　　风险提示以上内容仅代表作者李文财（微信：lwc540179821）Personal opinions do not provide any express or implied warranties regarding the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of the content contained; Investment carries risks, so caution is necessary when entering the market. Operate accordingly and bear the risk yourself!