Crossing the Sea 2017year12month5day (Gold)

Crossing the Sea

2017

year

12

month

5

day

Focus this week:
12month5day(Tuesday)
U.S.A10Monthly International Trade Balance
U.S.A11monthMarkitcomprehensivePMIFinal value
U.S.A11monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value
U.S.A11monthISMNon manufacturing index

12month6day(Wednesday)
U.S.A11monthADPChanges in private employment positions
美国第三季非农单位劳工成本修订
Third quarter non farm productivity month on month annual rate revision in the United States

12month7day(Thursday)
U.S.A11monthChallengerNumber of layoffs planned by the company
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States

12month8day(Friday)
U.S.A10Monthly Consumer Credit
U.S.A11Monthly non-agricultural employment positions
U.S.A11Monthly private employment positions
U.S.A11Monthly manufacturing employment positions
U.S.A11月政府就业岗位
U.S.A11Monthly unemployment rate
U.S.A11Monthly average hourly salary
U.S.A11月平均每周工时
U.S.A11月劳动人口就业参与率
U.S.A12Initial monthly University of Michigan consumer confidence index
U.S.A10Monthly wholesale inventory‧sales







Important economic data released today:  
17：30 britain11monthMarkit/CIPSCIPS services PMI (PMI)‧forecast55.0‧Previous value55.6
18：00 eurozone10Monthly retail sales rate‧forecast-0.70%‧Previous value0.70%
18：00 eurozone10Monthly retail sales annual rate‧forecast+1.50%‧Previous value3.70%
21：30 U.S.A10Monthly International Trade Balance‧forecast475A deficit of one billion yuan‧Previous value435A deficit of one billion yuan
21：30 U.S.A10Revised monthly commodity trade balance‧Previous value683Billion
21：30 Canada10Monthly trade balance‧forecast27.0A deficit of one billion yuan‧Previous value31.8A deficit of one billion yuan
21：30 Canada10Monthly export‧Previous value435.6Billion
21：30 Canada10Monthly imports‧Previous value467.4Billion
22：45 U.S.A11monthMarkitComprehensive Purchasing Manager Index(PMI)Final value‧Previous value54.6
22：45 U.S.A11monthMarkitCIPS services PMI (PMI)Final value‧Previous value54.7
23：00 U.S.A11Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)Non manufacturing index‧forecast59.0‧Previous value60.1
23：00 U.S.A11Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)企业活动分项指数‧forecast61.5‧Previous value62.2
23：00 U.S.A11Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)Employment sub index‧Previous value57.5
23：00 U.S.A11Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)New order sub index‧Previous value62.8
23：00 U.S.A11Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)Input price sub index‧Previous value62.7



News of the Week
Monday/U.S.A10Monthly factory orders decrease0.1%
U.S.A10月扣除运输的工厂订单为较前月增长0.8%

Tuesday/中国财新11Monthly service industryPMI和综合PMIAscend to51.9and51.6，均为三个月高点



12month4day
LondongoldMorning order price:1279.10
London gold afternoon fixing price:1273.45



Today's Introduction
民主党愿意与特朗普及共和党会谈以避免政府关停
美国国会民主党领袖周一同意接受邀请，将与特朗普总统及共和党人会面讨论避免政府在本周关停，民主党人强调要为优先事项提供资金，而且希望对年轻移民提供保障。美国众议院民主党领袖佩洛希和参议院民主党领袖舒默周一表示，他们希望总统能够保持与民主党达成协议的开放心态。佩洛希和舒默上周在特朗普推文语带轻蔑后，取消了一场原定与特朗普会面的安排。会议定于周四召开，也就是联邦政府资金用尽的前一天。众议院共和党周末采取了一项临时举措，将以当前水平为政府提供资金直至12month22日，以便让议员有时间来达成一项较长期议案。国会料将在本周就该措施进行表决。共和党在参众两院均占据多数席位。但鉴于在参议院只占52席，他们将需要获得部分民主党议员的支持，才能让该支出法案通过参议院至少60票赞成票的程序障碍。

本周投资者还聚焦关键的非农就业报告，分析师预计，11Monthly job creation20万个，上月新增就业岗位26万个。这将是美联储下周召开本年度最后一次政策会议前的最后一份就业报告，市场已经消化了在这次会议上升息的预期。foreign exchange市场预计美联储明年升息略超过两次，尽管美国10年期公债收益率周一走高，但仍在过去两个月的15个基点的区间内波动。




XAU London Gold - 金价异常窄幅，酝酿爆 破行情

金价周一下跌，因可能加快经济增长的美国税改议案取得新进展。美元周二兑主要货币守住温和涨幅，但周初的涨势开始放缓，因市场关注美国税改的下一阶段进展，以从中寻找美元走势的线索。美国制造商品新订单10月降幅低于预期，核心资本财订单则大幅上修，预示制造业持续强劲，应能提振经济。路透调查显示，美国联邦储备理事会(FED)本月稍晚几乎肯定会升息，多数分析师预计明年再升息三次，两周前调查时预测升息两次。

技术图表所见，金价周一的回跌正逼近10month27Daily low1263.35美元，此区为一个多月来的窄幅区间底部；同时，亦可留意目前位于1267of200天平均线，过去两个月以来金价亦于此技术指标获见支撑，若跌破此区或见金价跌势更为加剧，下一级支持料见至250Balance moving average1253To the extent that1243美元。上方阻力回看1281，另一关键则为下降趋向线1293USD.
      
London Gold12month5day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1269-1281
Resistance level:1292 – 1310
Support bit:1258 – 1243

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
11month13Day -843.39ton
11month14Day -843.39ton
11month15Day -843.39ton
11month16Day -843.39ton
11month17Day -843.39ton
11month20Day -843.39ton
11month21Day -843.39ton
11month22Day -843.39ton
11month23Day -843.39ton
11month24Day -843.39ton
11month27Day -842.21ton
11month28Day -839.55ton
11month29Day -839.55ton
11month30Day -839.55ton
12month1Day -848.11ton
12month4Day -846.93ton

12Monthly goldfuturesDue date:12month27day
12Monthly goldoptionDue date:11month27day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Data source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2017year11month2day)

Global:33499.6ton
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3373.7ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.9ton
China(6)：1842.6ton
Russia(7)：1778.9ton
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 银价跌破区间

上周白银价格显著下跌，更跌破了上月以来的横盘区间，至周一低见至16.22USD, approaching8month7Daily low16.10美元；价格近日的急速走低，亦带动之前横行的中短平均线开始下移，技术上银价料仍会延续下行，较大支持见于15.80and15.50美元。至于向上阻力则料为16.60and17.00USD.
      
London Silver12month5day
Predicting early wave amplitude:16.10 – 16.60
Resistance level:16.80 – 17.00
Support bit:15.80 – 15.50

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
11month13Day - 9893.21ton
11month14Day - 9893.21ton
11month15Day - 9893.21ton
11month16Day - 9893.21ton
11month17Day - 9893.21ton
11month20Day - 9893.21ton
11month21Day - 9893.21ton
11month22Day - 9893.21ton
11month23Day - 9893.21ton
11month24Day - 9863.86ton
11month27Day - 9863.86ton
11month28Day - 9863.86ton
11month29Day - 9863.86ton
11month30Day - 9863.86ton
12month1Day - 9828.44ton
12month4Day - 9924.22ton


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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)