Ouyang Fengcheng:12.4欧佩克减产协议宣布，原油后市依旧迷影重重

　　于情，不另畏将来，不念过去。爱情当中“我会给你幸福”这是故事的开始，“祝你幸福”这是故事的结尾，生活当中，只要你决定，任何一次的开始都将是圆上漂亮的切线，只要你敢对现在负责，未来就不仅只有所谓的成功与失败，还有另一个结局叫作”圆满“。
　　
　　OPEC延长减产后迷影重重油价自近两年半高位回落
　　
　　欧佩克宣布延长减产协议后有效改善了市场情绪，同时美元走弱也为油价提供了进一步支撑，油价上周五盘中续升近2%，但“通俄门”最新消息还是动摇了市场信心，加之美国石油活跃钻井数连续第二周录得上升且触及9月来最高，油价自近两年半高位回落。最终，美国WTIcrude oil1monthfutures上周五收涨0.87USD, or1.52%Report58.29dollar/桶，创一周收盘新高，使一周跌幅缩窄至1.15%，但仍创两个月最大单周跌幅；布伦特原油2月期货上周五收涨1.04USD, or1.66%Report63.70dollar/桶，上周累计下跌0.05%。

　　

　　上周影响油市的最重要事件莫过于欧佩克大会。在上周四大会召开前，油价因为油长表态以及美国库存数据而跌宕起伏，由于担心大会结果出现意外，油价一度大跌。不过，大会最终带来喜人的结果。欧佩克与俄罗斯等产油国在上周会议后发布联合声明，称与会国一致同意减产协议延长到明年底，明年6月考虑是否进一步调整减产。目前豁免减产的利比亚和尼日利亚明年产出不会超过今年水平。周五早盘油价一路高歌猛进，布伦特原油期货接近两年半高位64.65dollar/Barrel,WTI原油期货也接近两年半高位59.05dollar/Bucket.
　　
　　此前有分析师曾预计即使欧佩克成功将减产协议延长至明年底，油价仍将下跌，这主要是因为市场早就消化了这个结果。不过RBC资本市场全球商品策略负责人HelimaCroft则表示，由于沙特能源部长兼欧佩克主席法利赫超预期地确保了两大豁免国尼日利亚和利比亚明年也将限制减产，油价得到了有力提振。
　　
Technical analysis of crude oil
　　
　　原油，开盘走阴跌形态，日线，5/10日均线粘合向上发散；下方关注日线布林中轨支撑，附图macd空头能量缩量，stoch指标平行有向下趋势；

　　

　　小时图，布林三轨向上发散，10日均线压制，附图macd多头能量缩量，多空能量转换，stoch指标向下发散；四小时图，k线指标下方强支撑，布林带宽幅震荡；附图macd多头能量放量；原油操作上欧阳建议高空为主，低多为辅；阻力：58.5；支撑：57.8
　　
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