Crossing the Sea 2017year12month1day

Crossing the Sea

2017

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Focus this week:
12month1day(Friday)
U.S.A11monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIFinal value
U.S.A10Monthly construction expenditure rate
U.S.A11monthISMmanufacturingPMI

12month4day(Monday)
U.S.A11monthISM-纽约商业活动指数
U.S.A10Monthly factory order rate
U.S.A10Monthly Durable Goods Order Monthly Rate Revision

12month5day(Tuesday)
U.S.A10Monthly International Trade Balance
U.S.A11monthMarkitcomprehensivePMIFinal value
U.S.A11monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value
U.S.A11monthISMNon manufacturing index

12month6day(Wednesday)
U.S.A11monthADPChanges in private employment positions
美国第三季非农单位劳工成本修订
Third quarter non farm productivity month on month annual rate revision in the United States

12month7day(Thursday)
U.S.A11monthChallengerNumber of layoffs planned by the company
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States

12month8day(Friday)
U.S.A10Monthly Consumer Credit
U.S.A11Monthly non-agricultural employment positions
U.S.A11Monthly private employment positions
U.S.A11Monthly manufacturing employment positions
U.S.A11月政府就业岗位
U.S.A11Monthly unemployment rate
U.S.A11Monthly average hourly salary
U.S.A11月平均每周工时
U.S.A11月劳动人口就业参与率
U.S.A12Initial monthly University of Michigan consumer confidence index
U.S.A10Monthly wholesale inventory‧sales



Important economic data released today:   
17：30britain11monthMarkit/CIPSManufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)‧forecast56.5‧Previous value56.3
21：30Canada11Monthly job changes‧Forecast increase1.00Ten thousand‧Previous value increase3.53Ten thousand
21：30Canada11Monthly unemployment rate‧forecast6.2%‧Previous value6.3%
21：30Canada11Monthly employment participation rate‧Previous value65.70%
21：30加拿大第三季国内生产总值(GDP)Seasonal rate‧Previous value1.10%
21：30加拿大第三季环比年率国内生产总值(GDP)‧forecast1.60%‧Previous value4.50%
21：30Canada9Monthly Gross Domestic Product(GDP)Monthly rate‧forecast+0.1%‧Previous value-0.1%
22：30Canada11Menstrual season adjustmentMarkitManufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)‧Previous value54.3
22：45U.S.A11monthMarkitManufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)Final value‧Previous value53.8
23：00U.S.A10Monthly construction expenditure rate‧forecast0.50%‧Previous value0.30%
23：00U.S.A11Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)manufacturingPMI‧forecast58.4‧Previous value58.7
23：00U.S.A11Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)Input price sub index‧forecast67.0‧Previous value68.5
23：00U.S.A11Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)Employment sub index‧forecast60.0‧Previous value59.8
23：00U.S.A11Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)New order sub index‧Previous value63.4


News of the Week
Monday/美联储主席被提名人鲍威尔承诺将“果决”因应经济危机
纽约联储总裁杜德利称对于通胀“略”低，他并不担心
明尼亚波利斯联储总裁卡什卡利：没有理由对经济“踩煞车”
达拉斯联储总裁柯普朗称应在“不远的将来”加息

U.S.A10The annual sales rate of new houses per month is68.510000 households
U.S.A10月新屋销售较前月上升6.2%, to10Annual high

Tuesday/朝鲜称成功发射新型洲际弹道导弹，射程可覆盖美国全境
美国参议院预算委员会通过特朗普税改议案
FED主席被提名人鲍威尔为放宽金融监管辩护，称将逐步加息

U.S.A9Monthly standard and standard/CASE-SHILLER 20个大都会地区房价较上年上涨6.2%
U.S.A11The monthly consumer confidence index is129.5Touching2000year11The highest since the beginning of the month
Richmond Federal Reserve Bank11The monthly comprehensive manufacturing index is positive30
U.S.A9Monthly housing prices have increased compared to the previous month0.3%, up from the same period last year6.3%

Wednesday/China11月非制造业商务活动指数为54.8%

美国驻联合国大使黑利(NikkiHaley)在联合国安理会紧急会议表示：“一旦爆发战争，将彻底摧毁朝鲜政权
美联储褐皮书称经济前景改善，物价压力回升

U.S.A10月成屋待完成销售指数较前月上升3.5%
U.S.A10月成屋待完成销售指数为109.3
US Q3 Gross Domestic Product(GDP)The month on month annual rate correction value is growth3.3%
美国第三季最终销售修正值为增长2.5%
美国第三季消费者支出修正为增长2.3%，耐久财订单修正为增长8.1%
Season 3 in the United StatesGDP平减指数修正值为增长2.1%
Third quarter personal consumption expenditure in the United States(PCE)物价指数上涨1.5%
美国第三季出口修正值为增长2.2%，进口修正为下滑1.1%
美国第三季企业税后获利增长5.8%



11month30day
LondongoldMorning order price:1282.15
London gold afternoon fixing price:1280.20


Today's Introduction
美元本周得以喘稳，受益于本国经济数据表现强劲，以及美联储及联储官员对经济给出的积极评价，这令美国12月再度加息的前景愈发明朗化。而特朗普力推的税改议案即将迎来关键的参议院全体投票，在获得重量级参议员麦凯恩的支持后，前景也向有利的方向发展。美国商务部周三公布的修正值数据显示，第三季国内生产总值(GDP)The month on month annual rate represents growth3.3%，政府投资回升亦为支持因素。这一增幅为2014年第三季以来最大，也高于第二季度的3.1%成长幅度。这是美国经济自2014年以来首次连续两个季度增幅不低于3%。之前公布的初值数据认为，第三季经济成长环比年率为3.0%。此外，本周公布的其它数据也颇为强劲。10月新屋销售意外增长，触及10年高位；11月消费者信心窜升至将近17年高点，同时标普/CaseShiller 房价指数显示9month20个大都会地区房价也大幅攀升。美联储也对经济给出了正面评价。在周三发布的褐皮书中，美联储称10Month to11月中，美国经济以温和至适度的步伐扩张，通胀压力回升。其并指出，自上次褐皮书发布以来，物价压力增加。过去数月美联储对通胀的评估一直处于低位，此次上调了评估。在本周的一次讲话中，美联储主席被提名人鲍威尔表示，12月升息的理据“越来越充分”。展望下周，加拿大央行和澳洲央行都将公布最新的利率决定。数据方面，值得关注的有欧元区、日本以及澳洲的第三季GDP数据，和下周五公布的美国11Monthly non farm employment data.



XAU London Gold -金价维持窄幅横行

黄金周四下滑，因股市人气高涨和美国经济增长数据强劲，削弱黄金作为避险资产的吸引力，不过黄金仍留守在12年来最窄月度区间内。白银下滑至八周低点。美元持坚，因美国初请失业金人数和消费者支出数据正面，周三公布的美国第三季经济增长数据强劲也提供支撑。金11Monthly increase0.3%，但在整个11月都留守在1,265-1,300Within the USD range.

技术图表所见，金价上月于1300美元关口前止步，暂时仍可把此区视作为关键阻力，若可成功突破，或见金价可开启更明确升势。预料向上延伸目标可看至1302and1313元。然而，图表亦见相对强弱指标及随机指数于超买区域有初步回落迹象，即市要警剔调整风险，下方支持回看1276and1264水平，下一级料见至1256and1246。

London Gold12Monthly forecast amplitude:
Resistance level:1279–1292 –1313 –1347
Support bit:1256–1243 –1227 –1209

London Gold12month1day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1266 –1277
Resistance level:1283–1292 –1307
Support bit:1260–1253 –1245

SPDR GoldTrustGold holdings:
11month1Day -849.59ton
11month2Day -846.04ton
11month3Day -845.75ton
11month6Day -845.46ton
11month7Day -844.27ton
11month8Day -843.09ton
11month9Day -843.09ton
11month10Day -843.09ton
11month13Day -843.39ton
11month14Day -843.39ton
11month15Day -843.39ton
11month16Day -843.39ton
11month17Day -843.39ton
11month20Day -843.39ton
11month21Day -843.39ton
11month22Day -843.39ton
11month23Day -843.39ton
11month24Day -843.39ton
11month27Day -842.21ton
11month28Day -839.55ton
11month29Day -839.55ton
11month30Day -839.55ton

12Monthly goldfuturesDue date:12month27day
12Monthly goldoptionDue date:11month27day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Data source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2017year11month2day)

Global:33499.6ton
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3373.7ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.9ton
China(6)：1842.6ton
Russia(7)：1778.9ton
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver -银价跌破区间

白银周四触及10month6日来最低16.50美元，明确跌破近期的窄幅区间，或有着初步下试倾向，较大支持见于16.30and16.10美元，下一级看至15.70。至于向上阻力则料为16.70and17.10USD.

London Silver12Monthly forecast amplitude:
Resistance level:16.70–17.80 –18.30 –18.88
Support bit:16.00–15.50 –15.00 –14.40

London Silver12month1day
Predicting early wave amplitude:16.10 –16.70
Resistance level:16.90–17.30
Support bit:15.90–15.70

iSharesSilver TrustSilver holdings:
11month13Day - 9893.21ton
11month14Day - 9893.21ton
11month15Day - 9893.21ton
11month16Day - 9893.21ton
11month17Day - 9893.21ton
11month20Day - 9893.21ton
11month21Day - 9893.21ton
11month22Day - 9893.21ton
11month23Day - 9893.21ton
11month24Day - 9863.86ton
11month27Day - 9863.86ton
11month28Day - 9863.86ton
11month29Day - 9863.86ton
11month30Day - 9863.86ton



EUR euro -税改方案本周闯关，美元走势再受考验

欧元周一曾在德国乐观数据提振下触及两个月高位1.1961，令美元承压，但本周走势震荡。德国总理默克尔所在的保守党派周四晚与中间偏左的社会民主党(SPD)磋商，促进组建一个稳定的政府，从而结束当前政治僵局。截止到周五早间，谈判的相关内容尚未公布。

欧元兑美元走势，欧元本月中旬已升破一下降趋向线，配合10Tianhe25天平均线亦已形成黄金交叉，技术上有延续上升的倾向，若汇价可在短期内保持在1.18水平上方，则可望欧元继续探高，其后目标可看至1.1880and1.20关口，进一步可参考9Monthly high1.2090水平。下方则会瞩目上周早段曾测试的25Balance moving average, currently located at1.1720水平，要留意若失守此区或见欧元再陷上落争持走势，较大支撑料为1.1550Horizontal.

Focus:
12month1day(five): Italy11monthMarkit/ADACImanufacturingPMI‧France11monthMarkitmanufacturingPMI‧Germany11monthMarkit/BMEmanufacturingPMI‧意大利第三季GDPFinal value‧eurozone11Monthly EurozoneMarkitmanufacturingPMI
12month4day(one): Eurozone12monthSentixInvestor confidence index‧eurozone10monthPPI
12month5day(two): Italy11monthMarkit/ADACIService industryPMI‧France11monthMarkitService industryPMI‧MarkitcomprehensivePMI‧Germany11monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIFinal value‧eurozone11monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIFinal value‧eurozone10Monthly retail sales
12month6day(three): Germany10Monthly industrial order rate
12month7day(four): Germany10Monthly industrial production rate‧France10月流动帐平衡‧trade balance‧Import‧Export‧欧元区第三季GDP修订
12month8day(five): Germany10Monthly export rate‧进口月率‧trade balance‧法国截至10Monthly budget balance‧France10Monthly industrial production rate

Related news
France11The monthly consumer confidence index has risen102-
Germany10Monthly import prices have increased compared to the previous month0.6%, up from the same period last year2.6%
法国第三季国内生产总值(GDP)终值为较前季增长0.5%
France11monthHICPInitial value increased compared to the same period last year1.3%
France10月生产者物价指数较前月增长0.2%Increase compared to the same period last year1.5%
Germany10月实质零售销售较前月降1.2%, decreased compared to the same period last year1.4%
Germany11Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)The initial value has increased compared to the previous month0.3%
Germany11Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)Initial value increased compared to the same period last year1.8%
Germany11monthCPI初值为较前月上升0.3%, up from the same period last year1.8%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance1.1880 –1.2000 –1.2090
support1.1720 –1.1550



JPY yen -市场聚焦美国参议院对税改议案的投票

美元兑日圆一度攀升至11month21日来的高位112.690日圆，因美股和美债收益率大涨；此前共和党参议员麦凯恩支持参议院的减税议案，可能降低该议案最终在国会获得通过所面临的挑战。不过，参议院决定，美国时间周四晚间不会就税改议案投票，而是将于周五继续讨论，这限制了美元涨幅。

图表见当前汇价已跌破200天平均线，令技术面的弱势加剧；再者，由9月至今的走势形成的两个顶部与相应的MACD呈现背驰，亦指示着美元的下滑倾向。若果以过去两个月的累计涨幅计算，50%and61.8%的回吐幅度为111and110.15。较大支持则指向250Monthly average line108.40。上方阻力回见于50Balance moving average112.80and114.50Horizontal.

Focus:
12month4day(one): Japan11Monthly Consumer Confidence Index
12month7day(four): Japan12Monthly Reuters Short term Manufacturing Prosperity Index‧Japan invested in foreign bonds last week‧Last week, foreign investment in Japanese stocks‧Japan11monthforeign exchangereserve
12month8day(five): Japan11月银行贷款年率‧Japan10月流动帐平衡‧日本第三季GDPRevised month on month annual rate‧GDPSeasonal rate revision‧Japan10Monthly overtime pay annual rate‧Japan11月经济观察者调查日本服务业景气判断指数

Related news
Japan10Monthly retail sales decreased compared to the same period last year0.2%
Japan10月工业生产较前月增加0.5%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance112.80 –114.50*
support111.00 –110.15 –108.40



GBP pound -英退协议达成希望提振英镑

英镑本周反复走高，有迹象显示，英国与欧盟间就退欧分手费问题接近达成一致，另外英国与北爱尔兰边界谈判也接近达成协议，这些都为日后达成退欧过渡期协议铺平了道路。受此提振英镑兑美元升穿1.35并触及两个月高位。有关英国提议的金额，最近几日已有一些报导。之后欧盟谈判代表在公开场合强调，有关分手费协议的工作仍在继续，双方还力争在周一的重要会议之前就其它两项关键的分手条件取得一致。英国媒体曾报导称，英国已将向欧盟提出的价码提高了一倍多，达到500亿欧元左右。

英镑兑美元方面，图表见相对强弱指标及随机指数已开始自超买区域掉头向下，需防范汇价即将面临回调风险。下看支持先为起延自今年三月的上升趋向线位于1.3150，若然失守将加剧回挫力道，下一级看至1.30From the gateway to250Balance moving average position1.2810水平。另外，以年内的累计涨幅计算，38.2%and50%的回调水平为1.3015and1.2820Expand to61.8%Then it is1.2620。上方阻力预估为1.34and1.3480Horizontal.

Focus:
12month1day(five): UK11monthMarkit/CIPSmanufacturingPMI
12month4day(one): UK11monthMarkit/CIPSconstructionPMI
12month5day(two): UK11monthBRC同店零售销售年率‧Markit/CIPSService industryPMI
12month7day(four): UK11monthHalifaxMonthly rate of housing price index‧by11Three months of the monthHalifaxAnnual rate of housing price index
12month8day(five): UK10月建筑业产出‧industrial production ‧Manufacturing output‧对非欧盟商品平衡‧全球商品贸易平衡

Related news
央行副总裁：英国经济可进一步成长而不推高通胀，因薪资疲弱

NATIONWIDE: UK11Monthly housing prices have increased compared to the previous month0.1%, up from the same period last year2.5%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance1.3450 –1.3500
support1.3150 –1.3000 – 1.2800



CHF Swiss franc -央行理事暗示央行仍致力于超宽松货币政策

瑞士联邦经济总局周四公布，瑞士第三季实质国内生产总值(GDP)Growth compared to the previous quarter0.6%(路透调查预估增幅为0.6%)，第三季实质国内生产总值(GDP)Increase compared to the same period last year1.2%(路透调查预估增幅为0.9%)。

美元兑瑞郎走势，图表所见，由五月至今已走出了一组〝U〞型的技术型态，颈线位置1.01将为上向的重大屏障，闯过此区料可延续新一轮上升动力，之后关键将直指过去两年均未可闯过的1.0350水平，同时亦要注意若汇价于将来意外突破此区，亦象征着由2015年中开始的区间上落行情可能告终，并延展另一轮上涨走势，较近目标料先指向1.05的半百关口。下方支撑先回看250Balance moving average0.9870及年中双底型态的颈线0.9760，关键则指向0.9560Horizontal.

Related news
UBS Group10月瑞士消费指标升至1.54spot
Switzerland11monthKOF领先成长指标为110.3
瑞士第三季实质GDPGrowth compared to the previous quarter0.6%Increase compared to the same period last year1.2%
Switzerland10Monthly retail sales decreased compared to the same period last year3.0%

瑞士央行副总裁祖布鲁克称瑞郎仍易被避险压力推高，仍准备干预汇市抑制其上行压力

Focus:
12month6day(three)Switzerland11monthCPI
12month7day(four)Switzerland11Monthly unemployment rate

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance0.9800 –0.9880 –1.0000
support0.9540 –0.9500 –0.9400*



AUD AUD -后抽回跌，短期续行探低

澳元兑美元本周以来已下跌0.8%，11Falling at the end of the month1.2%，为连续第四个月录得月线跌幅。澳元下跌主要因美元上涨，因短期美国公债收益率上升，市场预计美国联邦储备理事会(FED)stay2018年将保持收紧政策的路径不变。投资者近来一直关注澳洲和美国公债收益率收窄的趋势，这已削弱了澳元作为利差交易货币的吸引力。鉴于下周将有大量数据公布，包括澳洲国内生产总值(GDP)数据，市场注意力可能会从收益率上转移开来。

澳元兑美元走势，汇价上周曾走出一段反弹行情，但明显地受制于250天平均线，包括本周一高位0.7645亦同样是止步在这区下方；故此，澳元要摆脱过去两个多月的下跌行情，则需先重新突破此区。预计之后延伸较大阻力将为0.7730and0.78水平。不过，在本周上旬澳元的横盘曾在250天线获得支撑，至月中跌破后，一记后抽而未可重新站上此区之上，则技术上示意着澳元有延伸下跌的倾向，同时，相对强弱指标及随机指数亦是继续下行，料短期澳元将继续探低。预计其后关键支撑将为延伸自年初的上升趋向线，目前处于0.7560水平，下一级看至0.75To the extent that5Monthly low0.7329。

Related news
澳洲第三季新资本支出经季节调整后较前季增加1.0%
澳洲第三季经季节调整建筑资本支出较前季上升1.2%

Focus:
12month4day(one)：澳洲第三季商业库存季率‧商业获利季率‧商业税前获利季率‧Australia11monthANZ整体招聘广告月率
12month5day(two): Australia11monthAIGService Industry Index‧澳洲第三季流动帐‧Australia10Monthly retail sales rate‧Australia12月央行政策利率
12month7day(four): Australia Season 3GDP‧Australia11monthAIG建筑业表现指数‧Australia10月商品及服务贸易平衡‧Import‧Export
12month8day(five): Australia10月房屋融资月率‧Investment oriented housing financing     

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance0.7640 –0.7730 –0.7800
support0.7560 –0.7500 –0.7329



NZD New Zealand dollars -财长称新政府将加强基础建设，致力降低债务

新西兰财政部长罗伯逊(GrantRobertson)周五表示，新政府将调高最低薪资、投资基础建设、并对央行增设扩大就业等职责。罗伯逊利用他首度重要谈话安抚商界领袖，称中间偏左联合政府将会维持财政责任，在此同时让国家的繁荣得到更好的分配。近几年新西兰的经济成长表现在发达国家中名列前茅，受到全球金融危机的打击相对较小，但随着该国强劲增长遭遇基础建设方面的瓶颈，近期成长进一步放缓。罗伯逊表示，政府的目标是在五年内将净债务相当于国内生产总值(GDP)的比例从当前的22.2%lower20%，另外除非出现重大危机，否则每年都要实现盈余。他补充称，政府将于12month14日公布半年度经济及财政报告。

纽元兑美元11月跌幅达近5%。新西兰第三季商品贸易条件触及纪录高位，暗示经济前景好转。RSI及随机指数亦已陷入超买区域，需慎防回调压力。预料目前下方支持为0.6850and0.6670水平，关键则直指0.65关口。同时，由去年6月至今，汇价走势亦大致呈现出一组双顶型态，若果型态幅度计算，中线的目标甚至可下延至0.6150水平。至于上方阻力就首要参考0.70关口，在本月初纽元的一段反扑行情中，正正是止步于0.70关口之前，因而后市需重新闯过此区才可望纽元摆脱技术弱势。向上较大阻力预计为0.72Horizontal.

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央行将从2018year1month1日起，对贷款价值比(LVR)采取“适度放松”措施

Focus:
12month8day(five)：新西兰第三季制造业销售季率

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance0.7000 –0.7050 –0.7200
support0.6670 –0.6500



CAD Cad -央行评估报告：家庭债务与楼市风险将随时间缓解

美元兑加元走势，图表见相对强弱指标及随机指数近日重新走高，短线或见汇价可重新转稳。下方支持先会关注上升趋向线1.27水平，倘若后市跌破此趋向线则会破坏近两个月来的上升格局，下延支持看至50Balance moving average1.2630. Gold ratio calculation,38.2%调整为1.2590，延伸至50%and61.8%Then they are respectively1.2490and1.2385。至于向上阻力预估为200Balance moving average position1.2970Further observation1.3160Horizontal.

Focus:
12month1day(five): Canada11Monthly job changes‧unemployment rate‧Employment participation rate‧加拿大第三季GDP‧Canada9monthGDPMonthly rate
12month5day(two): Canada10Monthly trade balance‧Export‧Import
12month6day(three)：加拿大第三季劳动生产率季率‧加拿大央行利率决定
12month7day(four): Canada10Monthly building permit rate‧Canada11monthIveyPMI‧
12month8day(five): Canada11Monthly housing construction annual rate‧加拿大第三季产能利用率

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance1.2925 –1.3010 –1.3130
support1.2650 –1.2525 –1.2440



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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)