Crossing the Sea 2017year11month24day (foreign exchange)

Crossing the Sea

2017

year

11

month

24

day

EUR euro - 政治僵局打压欧元

欧元兑美元走势，图表所见，欧元上周已升破一下降趋向线，配合10Tianhe25天平均线亦已形成gold交叉，技术上有延续上升的倾向，若汇价可在短期内保持在1.18水平上方，则可望欧元继续探高，其后目标可看至1.1880and1.20关口，进一步可参考9Monthly high1.2090水平。下方则会瞩目本周早段曾测试的25Balance moving average, currently located at1.17水平，要留意若失守此区或见欧元再陷上落争持走势，较大支撑料为1.1550Horizontal.

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.1720 – 1.1810
support 1.1515 – 1.1440 – 1.1230

Focus:
11month24day(five): Germany11monthIfoEnterprise Prosperity Index‧IfoCurrent situation index‧IfoExpected index‧forecast108.7‧Italy9Monthly industrial orders‧Industrial sales
11month27day(one): Italy11月制造业企业信心指数‧Consumer confidence index
11month28day(two): Germany12monthGfKConsumer confidence index‧France11Monthly Consumer Confidence Index‧eurozone10monthM3Supply of goods(Annual growth rate)‧For household loans
11month29day(three): France10Monthly consumer expenditure rate‧France Season 3GDPQuarterly rate final value‧eurozone11Monthly Business Prosperity Index‧Economic Sentiment Index‧工业景气指数‧服务业景气指数‧消费者信心指数终值‧消费者通胀预期指数‧Germany11monthCPIinitial value‧HICPinitial value
11month30day(four): Germany10Monthly import prices‧实质零售销售‧France11monthHICPAnnual rate initial value‧France10monthPPIMonthly rate‧Germany11Changes in monthly unemployment numbers‧Unemployed population‧unemployment rate‧Italy10Monthly unemployment rate‧Italy11monthCPIinitial value‧HICPinitial value‧eurozone11monthHICPAnnual rate initial value‧Deducting food and energy expensesHICPthe annual rate‧eurozone10Monthly unemployment rate‧Italy10monthPPI
12month1day(five): Italy11monthMarkit/ADACImanufacturingPMI‧France11monthMarkitmanufacturingPMI‧Germany11monthMarkit/BMEmanufacturingPMI‧意大利第三季GDPFinal value‧eurozone11Monthly EurozoneMarkitmanufacturingPMI

Related news
-德国总理默克尔在执政联盟谈判破裂后暗示，准备好重新大选
欧洲央行总裁德拉吉称，仍需要央行政策来提振薪资增长
科尔：欧洲央行明年9月前或放弃购债直到通胀升向目标的承诺

France11Monthly comprehensivePMIThe initial value is60.1
France11Monthly service industryPMIThe initial value is60.2
France11Monthly Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)The initial value is57.5
Germany Season 3GDPGrowth compared to the previous season0.8%
eurozone11月消费者信心指数升至正0.1, touching near17Annual high



JPY yen - 美元维持疲态，美联储决策者对通胀低迷较担心

美元周五仍处承压，因其受美国联邦储备理事会(FED)对美国低通胀的谨慎看法打压。本周交易天数因假期而减少。美国市场周四因感恩节假期休市，同日日本市场也因公共假期休市。之前于周三晚公布的美联储会议记录显示部分决策者对通胀持续低迷感到担忧，导致2018年的加息预期受到一些质疑。美国核心个人消费支出(PCE)物价指数五年多来一直低于美联储2%的目标，尽管美联储已经采取措施推动政策正常化。美元兑日圆周四一度触及两个月低位111.07，本周以来下跌0.5%。美国税改的进展依然是市场关注的重要问题，不过要到下周才会有新消息。美国总统特朗普周四在感恩节讲话中承诺将推出“大规模、诱人的减税措施”，但近期路透调查访问的分析师大多预计，美国共和党无法在今年使国会通过减税议案。

美元兑日圆方面，技术图表所见，从三月至今，汇价走势形成三个底部，颈线位置大约处于114.50，但之前两周连番试探亦未可作明确上破；此外，图表上亦见一组大型三角的顶部位置在114.70，倘若后市可突破此区，将巩固美元兑日圆的强势延续，延伸目标则会参考115.50以至今年初高位118.60。下方支持回看111.60and110关口，进一步指向108Horizontal.
      
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 114.50* – 114.85- 118.60
support 113.50 – 113.10 – 111.60

Focus:
11month29day(three): Japan10Monthly retail sales annual rate
11month30day(four): Japan10Monthly industrial production‧Japan11月一个月预估值‧Japan12月两个月预估值‧Japan invested in foreign bonds last week‧外资投资日股‧Japan10Monthly construction order annual rate‧房屋开工年率
12month1day(five): Japan10All monthly household expenses‧National CoreCPIthe annual rate‧Nationwide as a wholeCPIthe annual rate‧Japan11Tokyo Regional CoreCPIthe annual rate‧Tokyo region as a wholeCPIthe annual rate‧Japan10Monthly talent seeking and job seeking ratio‧unemployment rate‧日本第三季企业资本支出年率‧Japan11Monthly and daily manufacturing industryPMI

Related news
Japan11Monthly manufacturing industryPMIInitial value increased to53.8, for2014year3The highest since the beginning of the month



GBP pound - 市场焦点重回退欧谈判

英镑周四兑疲软的美元从六周高点小幅回软，交易员基本上未理会英国经济增长预估被大幅下调，而是将焦点重新放在退欧谈判上面。英国首相文翠珊周五将出访布鲁塞尔，欧盟的谈判方希望她能顶住国内的压力，增加英国退欧的“分手费”来确保在12月达成协议。过去一周，英国当地媒体报导暗示，文翠珊已经获得了内阁中赞成退欧的强硬派支持，来增加分手费，这在近几日给了英镑小幅提振。英镑兑美元周四在亚洲交易时段高见1.3337USD, for10month13日来最高，因在美国联邦储备理事会(FED)发布鸽派会议记录令美元周三录得6月来最大单日跌幅后，美元周四还在延续跌势。


英镑兑美元方面，在本月上旬险守着1.30关口后，近两周英镑缓步回升，本周一升见至1.3279。图表见相对强弱指标及随机指数已达至超买区域，需防范即将面临回调风险。值得留意的是，近月英镑多次冲试1.33关口不果，故汇价此趟若仍无法上破此关口，回吐风险亦会随之加剧。下看支持先为一上升趋向线于1.3090and1.30Gateway,250The balance moving average is currently located at1.28亦为一重要依据。另外，以年内的累计涨幅计算，38.2%and50%的回调水平为1.3015and1.2820Expand to61.8%Then it is1.2620。上方较大阻力预估为1.3450and1.35Horizontal.

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3300 – 1.3450
support 1.3060*- 1.3015 - 1.2820

Focus:
11month24day(five): UK10monthUK FINANCENumber of approved mortgage loans
11month29day(three): UK10Monthly Consumer Credit‧抵押贷款发放金额‧Number of approved mortgage loans‧M4Monthly rate of goods supply
11month30day(four): UK11monthGfKConsumer confidence index
12month1day(five): UK11monthMarkit/CIPSmanufacturingPMI

Related news
央行副总裁：英国经济可进一步成长而不推高通胀，因薪资疲弱



CHF Swiss franc - 央行理事暗示央行仍致力于超宽松货币政策

美元兑瑞郎走势，图表所见，由五月至今已走出了一组〝U〞型的技术型态，颈线位置1.01将为上向的重大屏障，闯过此区料可延续新一轮上升动力，之后关键将直指过去两年均未可闯过的1.0350水平，同时亦要注意若汇价于将来意外突破此区，亦象征着由2015年中开始的区间上落行情可能告终，并延展另一轮上涨走势，较近目标料先指向1.05的半百关口。下方支撑先回看250Balance moving average0.9870及年中双底型态的颈线0.9760，关键则指向0.9560Horizontal.
      
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.9800 – 0.9880- 1.0000
support 0.9540 – 0.9500 - 0.9400*

Related news
Switzerland10The monthly trade surplus is23.33Billion Swiss francs

Focus:
11month27day(one)：瑞士第三季非农就业岗位
11month29day(three)UBS Group(UBS)Switzerland10Monthly consumption indicators
11month30day(four)Switzerland Season 3GDP‧Switzerland11monthKOF领先成长指标‧Switzerland10Monthly retail sales annual rate
12month1day(five)Switzerland11Monthly manufacturing industryPMI



AUD AUD - 澳洲央行会议记录不利澳元

澳元连涨三天后升势暂歇，市场揣测美联储收紧政策步伐将较先前预期来得更慢，导致美元受挫。受美国和日本假日影响，本周市场整体交投清淡。

澳元兑美元方面，此前汇价一直盘旋在0.76-0.7730美元区间，关键则在250天平均线位置，月初澳元兑美元多次下探此指标，但均未见明确跌破，至上周终见跌破目前位于0.7640of250天平均线，料澳元将重新延展新一浪跌势。预计其后关键支撑将为延伸自年初的上升趋向线，目前处于0.7560水平，下一级看至0.75To the extent that5Monthly low0.7329。至于澳元向上阻力可先参考0.7630and0.7730，下一级则瞩目于50Balance moving average0.7780Horizontal.
      
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7700 – 0.7830 – 0.7880
support 0.7630*  0.7550 – 0.7500

Related news
央行会议记录：维持利率在纪录低位之际，薪资增长存在不确定性

Australia10月制造业经季节调整采购经理人指数升至四个月高点55.5

Focus:
11month30day(four): Australia10月澳洲HIA新屋销售月率‧建筑许可月率‧澳洲第三季资本支出季率‧厂房/机械设备资本支出季率‧Australia10月民间部门信贷月率‧房屋信贷月率
12month1day(five): Australia11monthAIGManufacturing Performance Index



NZD New Zealand dollars - 强劲零售销售数据提振纽元

New Zealand10月贸易逆差缩窄，因乳制品和羊肉带动出口跳增，尽管进口触及纪录高位。据新西兰统计局周五公布数据，10The monthly trade deficit narrowed to8.71亿新西兰元，9Month is11.56亿新西兰元。但截至10月的年度贸易逆差扩大至29.86亿新西兰元，9Month hour is29.13亿新西兰元。统计数据显示，10月进口触及54亿新西兰元的纪录水平，各种商品进口普遍增加。10月出口总额增至45.61亿新西兰元，乳制品及羊肉出口扮演主要推手；9The monthly export amount is37.74亿新西兰元。统计局补充道，飞机进口金额下降。
预料延伸下试目标为0.6670水平，关键则直指0.65关口。同时，由去年6月至今，汇价走势亦大致呈现出一组双顶型态，若果型态幅度计算，中线的目标甚至可下延至0.6150水平。至于上方阻力就首要参考0.70关口，在月初纽元的一段反扑行情中，正正是止步于0.70关口之前，因而后市需重新闯过此区才可望纽元摆脱技术弱势。向上较大阻力预计为50Balance moving average0.7050and0.72Horizontal.
      
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7000 - 0.7050 – 0.7200
support 0.6670 - 0.6500
                                                                       
Related news
新西兰第三季经季节调整实质零售销售较前季增加0.2%, increased compared to the same period last year4.1%
New Zealand10Monthly imports are54.3亿新西兰元，出口为45.6亿新西兰元
New Zealand10Monthly trade deficit8.71亿新西兰元，截至10月的年度贸易逆差为29.86亿新西兰元

Focus:
11month30day(four : New Zealand10Monthly building permit rate‧New Zealand11monthANZ企业展望指数‧ANZEnterprise Activity Index
12month1day(five)：新西兰第三季贸易条件季率‧Seasonal import price rate‧出口物价季率



CAD Cad - 加元呈回软风险

美元兑加元走势，图表见相对强弱指标及随机指数近日重新走高，短线或见汇价可重新转稳。下方支持先会关注上升趋向线1.2710，本周一直力守不失，但倘若后市跌破此趋向线则会破坏近两个月来的上升格局，下延支持看至50Balance moving average1.2530. Gold ratio calculation,38.2%调整为1.2590，延伸至50%and61.8%Then they are respectively1.2490and1.2385。至于向上阻力预估为1.2820and200Balance moving average position1.30Gateway.
      
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2925 – 1.3010 - 1.3130
support 1.2650 - 1.2525 – 1.2440

Focus:  
11month28day(two): Canada10月工业产品价格‧原材料价格
11month30day(four)：加拿大第三季流动帐平衡
12month1day(five): Canada11Monthly job changes‧unemployment rate‧Employment participation rate‧加拿大第三季GDP‧Canada9monthGDPMonthly rate


Related news
Canada9月批发贸易较前月下降1.2%，批发库存较前月上升0.6%
Canada9Monthly retail sales increase0.1%



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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)