Crossing the Sea 2017year11month20day(foreign exchange)

Crossing the Sea

2017

year

11

month

20

day

EUR euro - 亮丽数据巩固欧元升势

图表所见，欧元兑美元周二已升破一下降趋向线，技术上有延续升幅的倾向，若汇价可在短期内保持在1.18水平上方，则可望欧元继续探高，其后目标可看至1.1880and1.20关口，进一步可参考9Monthly high1.2090水平。然而，图表亦见相对强弱指标及随机指数均已达至超买区域，需慎防欧元在近期多日上涨后会先作整理，较近支撑可留意50Balance moving average1.1785and1.1550。倘若以由四月低位1.0568至九月高位1.2092Calculate the cumulative increase in price,38.2%的回调为1.1515，进一步扩展至50%and61.8%的调整幅度，则可看至1.1330and1.1150Horizontal.

Focus:
11month20day(one): Germany10monthPPI
11month22day(three): Eurozone11Initial value of monthly consumer confidence index
11month23day(four)：德国第三季GDP‧France11Monthly Business Prosperity Index‧MarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value‧MarkitService industryPMIinitial value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value‧Germany11monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value‧MarkitService industryPMIinitial value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value‧Italy10Monthly trade balance with non EU countries‧eurozone11monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value‧MarkitService industryPMIinitial value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value
11month24day(five): Germany11monthIfoEnterprise Prosperity Index‧IfoCurrent situation index‧IfoExpected index‧forecast108.7‧Italy9Monthly industrial orders‧Industrial sales

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.1720 – 1.1810
support 1.1515 – 1.1440 – 1.1230



JPY yen - 风险偏好降温支撑日圆

踏入11月份以来，主要货币兑美元陷于区间波动，市场显然失去了运行的方向，多空双方势均力敌，在基本面相对比较平稳的情况下，投资者不愿意大规模建仓，也造成了市场迟迟不能走出单边行情。

美元兑日圆方面，技术图表所见，从三月至今，汇价走势形成三个底部，颈线位置大约处于114.50，但之前两周连番试探亦未可作明确上破；此外，图表上亦见一组大型三角的顶部位置在114.70，倘若后市可突破此区，将巩固美元兑日圆的强势延续，延伸目标则会参考115.50以至今年初高位118.60。下方支持回看短期上升趋向线113.30，周中开始已见失守，或将扭转近两个月以来的上升态势，下看支持料可至111.60and110关口，进一步指向108Horizontal.

Focus:
11month20day(one): Japan10Monthly export annual rate‧Annual import rate‧trade balance
11month24day(five): Japan invested in foreign bonds last week‧Last week, foreign investment in Japanese stocks‧Japan11Month Day Meridian/MarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 114.50* – 114.85 – 118.60
support 113.50 – 113.10 – 111.60



GBP pound - 英国通胀低于预期

技术图表所见，英镑兑美元自年初以来反复走高，并促成一上升趋向线，构成重要支持目前位于1.3090水平，上周已见多番下探此趋向线，但尚未可作出明确突破，以至现阶段英镑尚处争持状态；需留意若后市明确地跌破此区，可能会扭转整过上升型态。同时，RSI及随机指数亦见走低，示意着英镑当前的偏软表现。以年内的累计涨幅计算，38.2%and50%的回调水平为1.3015and1.2820Expand to61.8%Then it is1.2620. Additionally,250The balance moving average is currently located at1.2780亦为一重要依据。上方阻力预估为1.33and1.3450Horizontal.

Focus:
11month21day(two): UK10monthPSNB‧PSNCR‧britain11monthCBITotal industrial order difference
11month23day(four): UK Season 3GDP修订‧企业投资季率初值‧企业投资年率初值‧britain11monthCBIRetail sales difference
11month24day(five): UK10monthUKFINANCENumber of approved mortgage loans

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3300 – 1.3450
support 1.3060* – 1.3015 – 1.2820



CHF Swiss franc - 央行理事暗示央行仍致力于超宽松货币政策

美元兑瑞郎走势，图表所见，由五月至今已走出了一组〝U〞型的技术型态，颈线位置1.01将为上向的重大屏障，闯过此区料可延续新一轮上升动力，之后关键将直指过去两年均未可闯过的1.0350水平，同时亦要注意若汇价于将来意外突破此区，亦象征着由2015年中开始的区间上落行情可能告终，并延展另一轮上涨走势，较近目标料先指向1.05的半百关口。下方支撑先回看250Balance moving average0.9870及年中双底型态的颈线0.9760，关键则指向0.9560Horizontal.

Focus:
11month21day(two)Switzerland10Monthly trade balance
11month24day(five)：瑞士第三季工业订单年率

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.9800 – 0.9880 – 1.0000
support 0.9540 – 0.9500 – 0.9400*



AUD AUD - 利差吸引力削弱

澳元兑美元维持走弱，因澳洲公债与美国公债收益率之差收窄至逾17年来最低，从而削弱了澳元作为利差交易融资货币的吸引力。受意外疲弱的薪资数据打压，澳元本周中段下挫，此后未能反弹。稳健的就业报告并未带来很大支撑，因为就业一年以来一直大幅增长，但未对薪资产生实际影响。澳洲央行上周承认了这种新常态，大幅下调通胀预期。

澳元兑美元近期一直盘旋在0.76-0.7730美元区间，短期将先关注250天平均线，在上周澳元兑美元多次下探此指标，但均未见明确跌破，至本周终见跌破目前位于0.7640of250天平均线，料澳元将重新延展新一浪跌势。预计其后关键支撑将为延伸自年初的上升趋向线，目前处于0.7560水平，下一级看至0.75To the extent that5Monthly low0.7329。至于澳元向上阻力可先参考0.7630and0.7730，下一级则瞩目于50Balance moving average0.78Horizontal.

Focus:
11month22day(three)：澳洲第三季建筑完工额季率

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7700 – 0.7830 – 0.7880
support 0.7630* – 0.7550 – 0.7500



NZD New Zealand dollars - 延续走弱

纵然美元近日回软，但纽元兑美元却仍未能摆脱弱势，再次回落至0.69水平下方，并且迫近上月底的低位0.6818，而早于今年5月纽元低位亦曾触及同样位置，故此，需留意若果当前汇价跌破此区，或会触发新一轮下跌趋势，预料延伸下试目标为0.6670水平，关键则直指0.65关口。同时，由去年6月至今，汇价走势亦大致呈现出一组双顶型态，若果型态幅度计算，中线的目标甚至可下延至0.6150水平。至于上方阻力就首要参考0.70关口，在月初纽元的一段反扑行情中，正正是止步于0.70关口之前，因而后市需重新闯过此区才可望纽元摆脱技术弱势。向上较大阻力预计为50Balance moving average0.7080and0.72Horizontal.

Focus:
11month20day(one): New Zealand10Monthly Food Price Index
11month23day(four)：新西兰第三季零售销售
11month24day(five): New Zealand10Monthly trade balance‧by10月的年度贸易平衡‧Import‧Export

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7000 – 0.7120
support 0.6800 – 0.6670 – 0.6500



CAD Cad - 呈回软风险

美元兑加元走势，图表见相对强弱指标及随机指数近日重新走高，短线或见汇价可重新转稳。下方支持先会关注上升趋向线1.2710，本周一直力守不失，但倘若后市跌破此趋向线则会破坏近两个月来的上升格局，下延支持看至50Balance moving average1.2530。gold比率计算，38.2%调整为1.2590，延伸至50%and61.8%Then they are respectively1.2490and1.2385。至于向上阻力预估为1.2820and200Balance moving average position1.30Gateway.

Focus:
11month21day(two): Canada9Monthly wholesale trade rate
11month23day(four): Canada9Monthly retail sales rate‧Deducting the monthly retail sales rate of automobiles

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2925 – 1.3010 – 1.3130
support 1.2650 – 1.2525 – 1.2440



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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)