Crossing the Sea 2017year11month16day

Crossing the Sea

2017

year

11

month

16

day

Focus this week:
11month16day(Thursday)
U.S.A10Monthly import price rate
U.S.A10月出口物价月率
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
Four week average in the United States
Number of Americans reapplying for unemployment benefits
U.S.A11Monthly Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index
U.S.A10Monthly industrial production rate
U.S.A10Monthly capacity utilization rate
U.S.A10Monthly manufacturing output rate
United States11monthNAHBHousing market index

11month17day(Friday)
U.S.A10Monthly Building Permit
U.S.A10Monthly housing construction starts



Important economic data released today:   
17：00Italy9Monthly trade balance with the European Union‧Previous value2.42Yiyi surplus
17：00Italy9Monthly Global Trade Balance‧Previous value27.69Yiyi surplus
17：30britain10Monthly retail sales rate‧forecast+0.1%‧Previous value-0.8%
17：30britain10Monthly retail sales annual rate‧forecast-0.6%‧Previous value+1.2%
17：30britain10月扣除能源的零售销售月率‧Forecast remains unchanged‧Previous value-0.7%
17：30britain10月扣除能源的零售销售年率‧forecast-0.4%‧Previous value+1.6%
18：00eurozone10Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)Monthly rate final value‧forecast+0.1%‧Previous value+0.4%
18：00eurozone10Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)Annual rate final value‧forecast+1.4%‧Previous value+1.4%
18：00eurozone10Monthly deduction of food and energyHICPMonthly rate final value‧forecast-0.1%‧Previous value+0.4%
18：00eurozone10Monthly deduction of food and energyHICPAnnual rate final value‧forecast+0.9%‧Previous value+1.1%
21：30U.S.A10Monthly import price rate‧forecast+0.6%‧Previous value+0.7%
21：30U.S.A10月出口物价月率‧forecast+0.4%‧Previous value+0.8%
21：30Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States(11month11Day and Week)‧forecast23.5ten thousand people‧Previous value23.9ten thousand people
21：30Four week average in the United States(11month11Day and Week)‧Previous value23.1ten thousand people
21：30Number of Americans reapplying for unemployment benefits(11month4Day and Week)‧forecast189.5ten thousand people‧Previous value190.1ten thousand people
21：30U.S.A11Monthly Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index‧Predict positive25.0‧Front value positive27.9
21：30Canada9Monthly manufacturing sales rate‧forecast-0.3%‧Previous value+1.6%
22：15U.S.A10Monthly industrial production rate‧forecast+0.5%‧Previous value+0.3%
22：15U.S.A10Monthly capacity utilization rate‧forecast76.3%‧Previous value76.0%
22：15U.S.A10Monthly manufacturing output rate‧forecast+0.6%‧Previous value+0.1%
23：00United States11Monthly Residential Builders Association(NAHB)Housing market index‧forecast68‧Previous value68



News of the Week
OPEC月报称明年crude oil供应将进一步收紧，可能短缺8310000 barrels/day
埃文斯：美联储应暗示容忍通胀走高，以应对通胀预期下滑
圣路易斯联储总裁称联储暂时应维持利率不变，直到通胀上升
亚特兰大联储总裁博斯蒂克(RaphaelBostic)当天表示，他仍然支持在12Monthly interest rate increase
达拉斯联邦储备银行总裁柯普朗正在“积极考虑”在美联储12月会议上支持再次升息
芝加哥联储总裁称，12月议息时将对利率决定持开放态度

U.S.A10The monthly budget deficit is630USD100mn
U.S.A10Monthly final demandPPIUp from the previous month0.4%, up from the same period last year2.8%
U.S.A10Monthly deduction of final demand for food and energyPPIIncrease compared to the same period last year2.4%
U.S.A10Monthly deduction of final demand for food, energy, and tradePPIIncrease compared to the same period last year2.3%
U.S.A10Monthly deduction of final demand for food, energy, and tradePPIUp from the previous month0.2%
U.S.A10Monthly deduction of final demand for food and energyPPIUp from the previous month0.4%
U.S.A9月整体资本净流出513USD100mn
U.S.A9月企业库存较上月持平
U.S.A10The monthly average real income of the private sector decreases per week0.1%
U.S.A10Monthly CoreCPIIncrease over the same period of last year1.8%
U.S.A10Monthly CoreCPIUp from the previous month0.2%
U.S.A10monthCPIUp from the previous month0.1%、较上年同期上涨2.0%
U.S.A11The manufacturing index of the New York Fed for the month is19.4
U.S.A10Monthly deduction of retail sales of automobiles increased compared to the previous month0.1%
U.S.A10Monthly retail sales increased compared to the previous month0.2%

11month15day
LondongoldMorning order price:1285.70
London gold afternoon fixing price:1282.20

Today's Introduction
美元处于守势，受税改计划疑虑拖累
美国公布的稳健经济数据提振美元走坚，不过有关美国税改前景的疑虑抑制了美元涨势。周三公布的数据显示，美国10月基础消费者物价上涨，支持了令美国联邦储备理事会(FED)忧心忡忡的近期通胀下滑趋势可能已经结束的观点。上月零售销售也意外上升。不过，美元的上升空间却受到美国税改不确定性所限制。美国参议院共和党人提出的税改方案周三遭到两名共和党参议员的抨击，可能预示这项全面税改方案可能会遇到麻烦。该方案拟废除对奥巴马医改的授权，而且永久减税举措只针对美国大企业。




XAU London Gold - 美联储升息预期带动美元喘稳

乐观的美国经济数据支撑美联储下月与之后的升息前景，带动美元上涨，金价则相应自高位回落。周三金价触及1289.09USD, for10month20日以来的日内高点，之后回吐涨幅。美国基础消费者物价上月上涨，受助于租金和医疗保健成本上升，巩固了令美联储忧心忡忡的近期通胀下滑趋势可能已经结束的观点。美国一周薪资正在上升，民众正在消费且物价跟着走升，这些迹象表明经济持续复苏为美联储12月升息及之后的升息周期铺路，尽管担心低通胀问题。另外，芝加哥联储总裁埃文斯周三称，他将在下个月政策会议上对利率决定持开放态度。外界预期美联储会在12月会议上进行年内第三次升息。

技术图表所见，金价正逐步陷入三角型态的末段区域，至今下底及上顶分别位于1271and1288美元，料金价若可脱离此区间将引发单边延伸行情。先看向下破位，以今年累计涨幅计算，38.2%The level of feedback is1268Expand to50%and61.8%Then it is1240and1212美元。至于向上则留意1294，下一关键参考10month16Daily high1306USD.
        
London Gold11month16day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1267 - 1281
Resistance level:1294- 1306
Support bit:1255- 1234

SPDR GoldTrustGold holdings:
10month23Day -853.13ton
10month24Day -853.13ton
10month25Day -853.13ton
10month26Day -851.95ton
10month27Day -850.77ton
10month30Day -850.77ton
10month31Day -850.77ton
11month1Day -849.59ton
11month2Day -846.04ton
11month3Day -845.75ton
11month6Day -845.46ton
11month7Day -844.27ton
11month8Day -843.09ton
11month9Day -843.09ton
11month10Day -843.09ton
11month13Day -843.39ton
11month14Day -843.39ton
11month15Day -843.39ton

12Monthly goldfuturesDue date:12month27day
12Monthly goldoptionDue date:11month27day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Data source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2017year11month2day)

Global:33499.6ton
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3373.7ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.9ton
China(6)：1842.6ton
Russia(7)：1778.9ton
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 银价三角末段争持

伦敦白银方面，银价近月处于窄幅区间运行，顶部大致位于17.30水平，底部约于16.50。此外，一延伸自今年七月的上升趋向线则位于16.80美元，视为较近支持依据，需留意若跌破此区或有着初步下试倾向，较大支持见于16.30and16.00美元。至于向上延伸较大阻力则料为17.70and18.20USD.
        
London Silver11month16day
Predicting early wave amplitude:16.70 –17.10
Resistance level:17.40–17.70
Support bit:16.30–16.00

iSharesSilver TrustSilver holdings:
10month30Day - 9926.85ton
10month31Day - 9926.85ton
11month1Day - 9926.85ton
11month2Day - 9922.58ton
11month3Day - 9922.58ton
11month6Day - 9922.58ton
11month7Day - 9893.21ton
11month8Day - 9893.21ton
11month9Day - 9893.21ton
11month10Day - 9893.21ton
11month13Day - 9893.21ton
11month14Day - 9893.21ton
11month15Day - 9893.21ton



EUR euro - 慎防欧元出现技术调整

美元周四处于守势，因围绕美国税改计划前景的疑虑、美国股市下跌以及高收益率债券价格下跌均打击人气，抵消美国基础通胀上升的影响。美元指数周三最低跌至93.40，创近四周以来最低水平，从9月初开始的涨势中大幅回调。美国10Monthly Core Consumer Price Index(CPI)Increase compared to the same period last year1.8%，之前五个月一直持于1.7%。10Monthly retail sales increased compared to the previous month0.2%。这两项数据均略微高于市场预期，从而进一步加强了美联储12月升息的理据。但美国利率期货走势显示，美联储2018年初升息的机率略低于周三数据出炉前的水平。另外，美国参议院共和党人提出的税改方案周三遭到两名共和党参议员的抨击，可能预示这项全面税改方案可能会遇到麻烦。该方案拟废除对奥巴马医改的授权，而且永久减税举措只针对美国大企业。共和党在参院仅拥有52-48席的多数优势，若是少了两张以上的支持票就会令形势不妙。美股以及垃圾债延续跌势，进一步打击了美元人气。标普500指数跌至三周低点，垃圾债收益率则升至七个半月高位。由于美元面临不利因素，欧元兑美元本周迄今累计上升近1%。周三一度高见1.1862美元，创下逾一个月以来的最高。

图表所见，欧元兑美元周二已升破一下降趋向线，技术上有延续升幅的倾向，若汇价可在短期内保持在1.18水平上方，则可望欧元继续探高，其后目标可看至1.1880and1.20关口，进一步可参考9Monthly high1.2090水平。然而，图表亦见相对强弱指标及随机指数均已达至超买区域，需慎防欧元在近期多日上涨后会先作整理，较近支撑可留意50Balance moving average1.1785and1.1550。倘若以由四月低位1.0568至九月高位1.2092Calculate the cumulative increase in price,38.2%的回调为1.1515，进一步扩展至50%and61.8%的调整幅度，则可看至1.1330and1.1150Horizontal.

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance1.1720 –1.1810
support1.1515 –1.1440 –1.1230

Focus:
11month16day(four): Germany10Monthly wholesale price index‧Italy9Monthly trade balance with the European Union‧Global trade balance‧eurozone10monthHICPFinal value‧Deducting food and energy expensesHICPFinal value
11month17day(five): Eurozone9Monthly current account

Related news
Germany10monthCPIThe final value remained unchanged compared to the previous month and increased compared to the same period last year1.6%
Germany10monthHICP终值较前月下降0.1%, up from the same period last year1.5%
德国第三季度经季节调整GDPThe initial value is growth compared to the previous season0.8%Growth compared to the same period last year2.3%
France10monthHICP终值较上年同期上涨1.2%
France10monthHICP终值较上月上涨0.1%
法国第三季按ILO标准计算的失业率升至9.7%

欧洲央行副总裁冈斯坦西欧称货币政策须保持宽松，因通胀仍未达标
欧洲央行管委韩伟森称，有“审慎但明显”的政策调整空间



JPY yen - 风险偏好降温，日圆小幅回升

踏入11月份以来，主要货币兑美元陷于区间波动，市场显然失去了运行的方向，多空双方势均力敌，在基本面相对比较平稳的情况下，投资者不愿意大规模建仓，也造成了市场迟迟不能走出单边行情。本周市场人士将关注美国通胀数据的发布，另外亦会聚焦于美国税改政策的进展情况，美国参议院共和党上周四公布的税改计划中，公司税下调要比众议院税改议案晚一年。

技术图表所见，从三月至今，美元兑日圆走势形成三个底部，颈线位置大约处于114.50，但之前两周连番试探亦未可作明确上破；此外，图表上亦见一组大型三角的顶部位置在114.70，倘若后市可突破此区，将巩固美元兑日圆的强势延续，延伸目标则会参考115.50以至今年初高位118.60。下方支持回看短期上升趋向线113.30，明确失守此区或将扭转近两个月以来的上升态势，较大支持将看至111.60and110Gateway.
        
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance114.50* –114.85 - 118.60
support113.50 –113.10 –111.60

Focus:
11month16day(four): Japan invested in foreign bonds last week‧Last week, foreign investment in Japanese stocks

Related news
央行总裁黑田东彦称将继续坚持货币宽松，以促进通胀率上升

日本第三季GDPThe month on month annual rate is growth1.4%
日本第三季GDPGrowth compared to the previous quarter0.3%



GBP pound - 英国通胀低于预期

技术图表所见，英镑兑美元自年初以来反复走高，并促成一上升趋向线，构成重要支持目前位于1.3090水平，上周已见多番下探此趋向线，但尚未可作出明确突破，以至现阶段英镑尚处争持状态；需留意若后市明确地跌破此区，可能会扭转整过上升型态。同时，RSI及随机指数亦见走低，示意着英镑当前的偏软表现。以年内的累计涨幅计算，38.2%and50%的回调水平为1.3015and1.2820Expand to61.8%Then it is1.2620. Additionally,250The balance moving average is currently located at1.2780亦为一重要依据。上方阻力预估为1.33and1.3450Horizontal.

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance1.3300 –1.3450
support1.3060* - 1.3015 - 1.2820

Focus:
11month16day(four): UK10Monthly retail sales‧Retail sales excluding energy

Related news
英央行副总裁康利夫希望看到薪资上涨迹象后再升息
央行副总裁布罗德班特为央行的假设辩护，称低失业率将提振薪资



CHF Swiss franc - 瑞士政府在与央行总裁会面后称瑞郎“被高估”

瑞士政府周三表示，尽管瑞郎近期兑欧元走弱，但依然“被高估”。这呼应了瑞士央行近期的说法。内阁在会后发表声明说，瑞士央行总裁乔丹在与瑞士政府的年度会议上强调，负利率和随时准备干预汇市对于限制瑞郎升值仍然适当。

美元兑瑞郎走势，图表所见，由五月至今已走出了一组〝U〞型的技术型态，颈线位置1.01将为上向的重大屏障，闯过此区料可延续新一轮上升动力，之后关键将直指过去两年均未可闯过的1.0350水平，同时亦要注意若汇价于将来意外突破此区，亦象征着由2015年中开始的区间上落行情可能告终，并延展另一轮上涨走势，较近目标料先指向1.05的半百关口。下方支撑先回看250Balance moving average0.9870及年中双底型态的颈线0.9760，关键则指向0.9560Horizontal.
        
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance0.9800 –0.9880 - 1.0000
support0.9540 –0.9500 - 0.9400*

Focus:
11month14day(two)Switzerland10Monthly Producer/Import prices



AUD AUD - 就业数据提振澳元

澳元自周四所及近五个月低位反弹，因基本乐观的澳洲就业数据引发一波澳元空头回补。澳元兑美元回升至接近0.76水平，此前一度跌至0.7567, for6月底以来低位。数据显示澳洲10The monthly unemployment rate has decreased2013年初以来的最低位5.4%，这令澳元卖压暂缓。不过，鉴于劳动市场仍存在很大的闲置，薪资增长也接近纪录低位，投资者仍认为未来数月内澳洲央行不会升息。

澳元兑美元方面，技术图表见，近期澳元一直盘旋在0.76-0.7730美元区间，短期将先关注250天平均线，在近一周多的时间，澳元兑美元多次下探此指标，但均未见明确跌破，目前250The balance moving average is located at0.7640，需警剔若汇价后市着实地下破此区，将重新延展新一浪跌势。预计其后关键支撑将为延伸自年初的上升趋向线，目前处于0.7560水平，下一级看至0.75To the extent that5Monthly low0.7329。至于澳元向上阻力可先参考0.7730and0.78，下一级则瞩目于50Balance moving average0.7820Horizontal.

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance0.7700 –0.7830 –0.7880
support0.7630*  0.7550 – 0.7500

Related news
NAB: Australia10月企业现况指数跳升至创纪录的正21
NAB: Australia10月企业信心指数持稳在正8
澳洲第三季经季调薪资价格指数较前季上升0.5%，较上年同期上扬2.0%
Australia11monthWESTPAC-MIConsumer confidence index declining1.7%to99.7
Australia10月经季节调整后就业人口增加0.37ten thousand people
Australia10月经季节调整后失业率为5.4%
Australia10Increase in full-time employment after seasonal adjustment of menstruation2.43ten thousand people
Australia10月经季节调整后就业参与率为65.1%



NZD New Zealand dollars - 纽元呈技术弱势

技术图表所见，相对强弱指标及随机指数回落，并与十月中旬出现的顶部出现技术背驰，预示短线纽元很大机会将重回跌轨。当前关键支撑先会参考5Monthly low0.6818，上月底已屡次下探此区，若后市破位将更好确认纽元将开展新一浪跌势；预料延伸下试目标为0.6670水平，关键指向0.65。另一方面，上方阻力则参考0.70and50Balance moving average0.7120Horizontal.
        
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance0.7000 - 0.7120
support0.6800 –0.6670 - 0.6500

Related news
New Zealand10月经季调房价中值同比升3.3%，按月升1.2%
10月外资持有新西兰公债比例升至58.3%
New Zealand11月消费者信心降至123.7

Focus:
11month17day(five)：新西兰第三季PPIInput index‧PPIOutput index‧New Zealand10Monthly manufacturing industryPMI



CAD Cad - 央行副总裁称在不确定时期应谨慎，但谨慎也有限度

加拿大央行高级副总裁威尔金斯(CarolynWilkins)周三称，在像当前这种不确定性时期，在货币政策上采取谨慎做法或许是明智的，但谨慎也有限度，因为其弊端可能会导致金融不稳定。威尔金斯在解释央行在不确定时期如何决策时说，在利率较低时，或许需要制定比平常更加激进的政策来应对负面冲击，当不清楚政策举动将对支出产生何种影响时，采取谨慎的做法是明智的。威尔金斯说，加拿大央行特别关注显示薪资和潜在产出发展情况的数据、该行7Month and9月升息的影响，以及北美自由贸易协议(NAFTA)的重新协商。

美元兑加元走势，自9month8日低位触碰1.2057之后，汇价持续攀升，但上月底在1.30关口之前行人止步，最高于10month27Daily contact1.2916，随后反复回落，并令至RSI及随机指数双双回落，MACD更刚于上周跌破讯号线，故此需慎防美元兑加元中短期有持续回落的风险。下方支持先会关注上升趋向线1.2670，倘若后市跌破此趋向线则会破坏近两个月来的上升格局，下延支持看至50Balance moving average1.25. Gold ratio calculation,38.2%调整为1.2590，延伸至50%and61.8%Then they are respectively1.2490and1.2385。向上阻力预估为1.2820and200Balance moving average position1.30Gateway.
        
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance1.2925 –1.3010 - 1.3130
support1.2650 - 1.2525 –1.2440

Focus:
11month17day(five): Canada10monthCPI‧Central Bank CoreCPI

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央行副总裁威尔金斯称在不确定时期应谨慎，但谨慎也有限度



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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)