Crossing the Sea 2017year11month1day (Gold)

Crossing the Sea

2017

year

11

month

1

day

Focus this week:
11month1day(Wednesday)
Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Market Index
Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Refinancing Index
U.S.A10monthADPChanges in private employment positions
U.S.A9Monthly construction expenditure rate
U.S.A10monthISMManufacturing Index
U.S.A10monthISMInput price sub index
U.S.A10monthISMEmployment sub index
U.S.A10monthISMNew order sub index
U.S.A10monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIFinal value

11month2day(Thursday)
美国联邦基金利率目标区间
U.S.A10月汽车销量年率
U.S.A10monthChallengerNumber of layoffs planned by the company
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States     
Four week average in the United States   
Number of Americans reapplying for unemployment benefits  
美国第三季非农单位劳工成本初值
美国第三季生产率初值
U.S.A10monthISM-New York Corporate Activity Index

11month3day(Friday)
U.S.A10Monthly non-agricultural employment positions
U.S.A10Monthly private employment positions
U.S.A10Monthly manufacturing employment positions
U.S.A10月政府就业岗位
U.S.A10Monthly unemployment rate
U.S.A10Monthly average hourly salary
U.S.A10月平均每周工时
U.S.A10月劳动人口就业参与率
U.S.A9Monthly International Trade Balance
U.S.A9Revised monthly commodity trade balance
U.S.A9Monthly factory order rate
U.S.A9月扣除运输的工厂订单月率
U.S.A9Monthly Durable Goods Order Monthly Rate Revision
U.S.A9月扣除运输的耐用品订单月率修订
U.S.A9月扣除国防的耐用品订单月率修订
U.S.A9月扣除飞机的非国防资本财订单月率修订
U.S.A10monthISMNon manufacturing index
U.S.A10monthMarkit综合采PMIFinal value
U.S.A10monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value



Important economic data released today:  
16：30 Switzerland10Monthly Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)‧Previous value61.7
17：30 britain10monthMarkit/CIPSManufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)‧forecast55.8‧Previous value55.9
19：00 Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Market Index‧Previous value400.3
19：00 Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Refinancing Index‧Previous value1,357.6
20：15 U.S.A10monthADPChanges in private employment positions‧Forecast increase20.0Ten thousand‧Previous value increase13.5Ten thousand
21：30 Canada10monthMarkit/RBC经季调制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)‧Previous value55.0
21：45 U.S.A10monthMarkitManufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)Final value‧Previous value54.5
22：00 U.S.A9Monthly construction expenditure rate‧Forecast remains unchanged‧Previous value+0.5%
22：00 U.S.A10Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)Manufacturing Index‧forecast59.5‧Previous value60.8
22：00 U.S.A10Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)Input price sub index‧forecast68.0‧Previous value71.5
22：00 U.S.A10Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)Employment sub index‧forecast60.0‧Previous value60.3
22：00 U.S.A10Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)New order sub index‧Previous value64.6

11month2day (Thursday)
02：00 Federal Reserve Rate Resolution‧forecast1.00%-1.25%‧Previous value1.00%-1.25%


News of the Week
China10月非制造业商务活动指数为54.3
Caixin China10Monthly manufacturing industryPMIby51.0与上月持平
U.S.A10The monthly consumer confidence index is125.9, for2000year12The highest since the beginning of the month
U.S.A10Monthly Chicago Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)by66.2, for2011year3The highest since the beginning of the month
美国第三季雇佣成本指数上升0.7%，薪资也为成长0.7%

Tuesday/纽约卡车撞人事件致八人死亡，当局宣称为恐怖袭击
消息人士称众议院将税改议案公布尔日期推迟至周四



10month31day
LondongoldMorning order price:1274.40
London gold afternoon fixing price:1270.15


Today's Introduction
外界对于下任美国联邦储备理事会(FED)主席人选的猜测愈发热烈之际，美联储周三料将维持利率不变，但可能指出经济增强，其愈发接近下月升息。美联储自1月以来已升息两次，目前外界预期年底前其还将升息一次。投资者几乎排除本周会议采取行动的可能。市场将关注这次会议，以确认美联储是否准备在12月升息，不过注意力将很快转向2018year2月美联储主席耶伦任期届满后，谁将执掌美联储。美国总统特朗普可能在周四宣布提名人选。他已与耶伦、美联储理事鲍威尔以及其他三名人选进行了面谈。鲍威尔是一位言谈温和的中间派，一直支持耶伦渐进升息的做法，他被视为最可能的继任人选。



XAU London Gold - 金价受压下降趋向线

中国黄金协会周三表示，中国前三季度黄金产量313.089吨，同比下降9.98%；前三季度黄金实际消费量815.89Tons, year-on-year growth15.49%。央视网援引中国黄金协会数据称，在黄金实际消费中，金条销售继续保持大幅增长，黄金首饰销售再次回暖。前三季度黄金首饰503.87Tons, year-on-year growth7.44%；金条222.07Tons, year-on-year growth44.45%；金币17.00吨，同比下降7.81%；工业及其他72.95Tons, year-on-year growth11.66%。报导援引专家指出，今年前三季度，随着国内高端消费的持续复苏及二三线城市消费需求迅速崛起，国内黄金首饰销售有所回暖，同比增长7.44%。同时，由于投资资金撤离房地产行业，证券市场低位震荡等因素，实物黄金投资需求大幅上升，黄金金条销售同比增长44.45%，也验证了实物黄金投资在民众储蓄类型中所占比重正在提高。

金价周三处于区间整固，投资人等候美国联邦储备理事会(FED)两日政策会议后美国利率方面的暗示。上日数据显示，美国10月消费者信心急升至近17年高位，家庭对就业市场和企业状况充满信心，这可能支持消费者支出，并提振第四季经济成长。投资者还在等待可能于周四公布的下一任美联储主席人选、周四的英国央行政策会议和更多数据，包括周五的美国非农就业数据。

伦敦黄金方面，图表见一道下降趋向线于1282水平，若金价可突破此区才有望重新延续今年以来之整体涨势，先回看1300美元关口，此区同时接近于50天平均线位置。向下支持则会瞩目于200Balance moving average1260美元，此区亦接近黄金比率61.8%的回吐水平位置1263Therefore1260-1263此区域若失守，则已呈弱势延展的迹象，而上周金价低位仍刚好险守此区上方。预计下方较大支持在1251。

Related news
黄金协会：中国前三季度黄金产量313.089吨，同比下降9.98%
黄金协会：中国前三季度黄金实际消费量815.89Tons, year-on-year growth15.49%
      
London Gold11Monthly predicted wave amplitude:
Resistance level:1278 – 1295 – 1324 – 1370
Support bit:1247 – 1230 – 1208 – 1184

London Gold11month1day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1265 – 1273
Resistance level:1277 – 1283
Support bit:1261 – 1251

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
10month16Day -853.13ton
10month17Day -853.13ton
10month18Day -853.13ton
10month19Day -853.13ton
10month20Day -853.13ton
10month23Day -853.13ton
10month24Day -853.13ton
10month25Day -853.13ton
10month26Day -851.95ton
10month27Day -850.77ton
10month30Day -850.77ton
11month1Day -850.77ton

12Monthly goldfuturesDue date:12month27day
12Monthly goldoptionDue date:11month27day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Data source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2017year9month8day)

Global:33421.4ton
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3374.1ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.9ton
China(6)：1842.6ton
Russia(7)：1729.4ton
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 银价三角末段争持

伦敦白银方面，在中期走势而言，银价仍延续着2016year7月的一浪低于一浪之下跌态势，并已在图表上形成一组下跌楔形，顶部位于17.85，底部位于14.50。更值得一提的是，从2008year10Monthly low18.42美元起始的较长期上升趋向线，今年7month10日的暴挫，其低位正好止步于在线，而目前趋向线延伸至15美元关口，故需高度注意后市若然跌破此区，银价或将迎来又一轮较具幅度的下跌，延伸目标除了上述的楔形底部14.50美元之外，还可参考2015year12Monthly low13.60。短线银价则正争持于16.68to17.11美元的三角末段区域。

London Silver11Monthly predicted wave amplitude:
Resistance level:17.30 – 18.00 – 18.50 – 19.20
Support bit:16.00 – 15.50 – 15.00 – 14.40

London Silver11month1day
Predicting early wave amplitude:16.30 – 17.10
Resistance level:17.40 – 18.00
Support bit:16.00 – 15.50

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
10month18Day - 10023.77ton
10month19Day - 9994.39ton
10month20Day - 9994.39ton
10month23Day - 9962.09ton
10month24Day - 9962.09ton
10month25Day - 9962.09ton
10month26Day - 9962.09ton
10month27Day - 9962.09ton
10month30Day - 9926.85ton
11month1Day - 9926.85ton



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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)