Crossing the Sea 2017year11month2day (Gold)

Crossing the Sea

2017

year

11

month

2

day

Focus this week:
11month2day(Thursday)
U.S.A10monthChallengerNumber of layoffs planned by the company
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States   
Four week average in the United States   
Number of Americans reapplying for unemployment benefits  
美国第三季非农单位劳工成本初值
美国第三季生产率初值
U.S.A10monthISM-New York Corporate Activity Index

11month3day(Friday)
U.S.A10Monthly non-agricultural employment positions
U.S.A10Monthly private employment positions
U.S.A10Monthly manufacturing employment positions
U.S.A10月政府就业岗位
U.S.A10Monthly unemployment rate
U.S.A10Monthly average hourly salary
U.S.A10月平均每周工时
U.S.A10月劳动人口就业参与率
U.S.A9Monthly International Trade Balance
U.S.A9Revised monthly commodity trade balance
U.S.A9Monthly factory order rate
U.S.A9月扣除运输的工厂订单月率
U.S.A9Monthly Durable Goods Order Monthly Rate Revision
U.S.A9月扣除运输的耐用品订单月率修订
U.S.A9月扣除国防的耐用品订单月率修订
U.S.A9月扣除飞机的非国防资本财订单月率修订
U.S.A10monthISMNon manufacturing index
U.S.A10monthMarkit综合采PMIFinal value
U.S.A10monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value



Important economic data released today:  
17：00 Germany10Seasonal adjustment of unemployment during menstruation‧Predicted decrease1.0ten thousand people‧Previous value decrease2.3ten thousand people
17：00 Germany10Unemployment without seasonal adjustment per month‧Previous value244.9ten thousand people
17：00 Germany10Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate during menstruation‧forecast5.6%‧Previous value5.6%
17：00 Germany10Adjusting the number of unemployed individuals during the menstrual season‧Previous value250.6ten thousand people
17：00 eurozone10monthMarkitManufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)Final value‧forecast58.6‧Previous value58.6
17：30 britain10monthMarkit/CIPS建筑业采购经理人指数(PMI)‧forecast48.1‧Previous value48.1
20：00 britain10Monthly Central Bank Interest Rate Resolution‧forecast0.50%‧Previous value0.25%
20：00 britain10月公债购买规模‧forecast4,350Billion‧Previous value4,350Billion
20：00 britain10月货币政策委员会(MPC)Voting results(升息-unchanged-Interest rate reduction)‧forecast6-3-0‧Previous value2-7-0
19：30 U.S.A10monthChallengerNumber of layoffs planned by the company‧Previous value32,346individual
20：30 Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States(10month28Day and Week)‧forecast23.5ten thousand people‧Previous value23.3ten thousand people
20：30 Four week average in the United States(10month28Day and Week)‧Previous value23.95ten thousand people
20：30 Number of Americans reapplying for unemployment benefits(10month21Day and Week)‧forecast189.7ten thousand people‧Previous value189.3ten thousand people
20：30 美国第三季非农单位劳工成本初值‧forecast+0.5%‧Previous value+0.2%
20：30 美国第三季生产率初值‧forecast+2.4%‧Previous value+1.5%
21：45 U.S.A10monthISM-New York Corporate Activity Index‧Previous value748.6



News of the Week
China10月非制造业商务活动指数为54.3
Caixin China10Monthly manufacturing industryPMIby51.0与上月持平
U.S.A10The monthly consumer confidence index is125.9, for2000year12The highest since the beginning of the month
U.S.A10Monthly Chicago Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)by66.2, for2011year3The highest since the beginning of the month
美国第三季雇佣成本指数上升0.7%，薪资也为成长0.7%
American Supply Management Association(ISM)10The monthly manufacturing index is58.7
U.S.A9Monthly construction expenditure increases0.3%
U.S.A10monthMARKITmanufacturingPMIThe final value is54.6, for1The highest since the beginning of the month


Tuesday/纽约卡车撞人事件致八人死亡，当局宣称为恐怖袭击
消息人士称众议院将税改议案公布尔日期推迟至周四

Wednesday/美联储维持利率不变，经济成长“稳健”使12月升息在望



11month1day
LondongoldMorning order price:1279.25
London gold afternoon fixing price:1277.05

 

Today's Introduction
市场等待美联储下任主席提名人选以及共和党税改提案
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve Board of the United States(FED)一如预期维持利率不变，并强调了美国经济增长稳健以及就业市场走强，同时还淡化了近期飓风带来的影响。美联储对美国经济持乐观态度，实际上加大了联储年底升息的可能性。据芝商所集团的FedWatchFederal Funds Ratefuturesdisplay12月升息的机率约为98%。同时，投资者静待美联储下任主席提名人选的正式宣布。知情消息人士周三表示，美国总统特朗普计划提名现任美联储理事鲍威尔为下一任美联储主席。对鲍威尔的提名预计将在周四特朗普亚洲之行启程之前宣布，提名需要得到参议院确认。对特朗普提名鲍威尔当联储主席的预期升温，在本周压低美国公债收益率，并令美元保持守势。外界认为鲍威尔的利率立场偏鸽派。投资者也在焦急等待美国众议院共和党人的税改提案，该提案被推迟公布一天。据说该计划将包括寻求在10年内减税至多6万亿美元，但可能不会说明如何弥补由此造成的税收损失，因共和党内对此仍然存在分歧。



XAU London Gold - 金价受压下降趋向线

金价周四升至一周高位，受助于美元走弱。目前市场在等待美国宣布下一任美联储主席人选。美国料于今日稍晚公布该人选。美联储周三维持利率不变，称美国经济成长稳健，就业市场不断增强，与此同时，联储淡化近期侵袭美国的飓风给经济造成的影响，暗示联储12月再度升息在望。

伦敦黄金方面，图表见一道下降趋向线于1280水平，若金价可突破此区才有望重新延续今年以来之整体涨势，先回看1300美元关口，此区同时接近于50天平均线位置。向下支持则会瞩目于200Balance moving average1261美元，此区亦接近黄金比率61.8%的回吐水平位置1263Therefore1261-1263此区域若失守，则已呈弱势延展的迹象，而上周金价低位仍刚好险守此区上方。预计下方较大支持在1247USD.
      
London Gold11Monthly predicted wave amplitude:
Resistance level:1278 – 1295 – 1324- 1370
Support bit:1247 – 1230 – 1208 - 1184

London Gold11month2day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1273 - 1288
Resistance level:1301 - 1314
Support bit:1260 – 1247
                                                                       
Related news
黄金协会：中国前三季度黄金产量313.089吨，同比下降9.98%
黄金协会：中国前三季度黄金实际消费量815.89Tons, year-on-year growth15.49%

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
10month16Day -853.13ton
10month17Day -853.13ton
10month18Day -853.13ton
10month19Day -853.13ton
10month20Day -853.13ton
10month23Day -853.13ton
10month24Day -853.13ton
10month25Day -853.13ton
10month26Day -851.95ton
10month27Day -850.77ton
10month30Day -850.77ton
10month31Day -850.77ton
11month1Day -849.59ton

12Maturity date of monthly gold futures:12month27day
12Monthly goldoptionDue date:11month27day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Data source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2017year9month8day)

Global:33421.4ton
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3374.1ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.9ton
China(6)：1842.6ton
Russia(7)：1729.4ton
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 银价三角末段争持

伦敦白银方面，从2008year10Monthly low18.42美元起始的较长期上升趋向线，今年7month10日的暴挫，其低位正好止步于在线，而目前趋向线延伸至15美元关口，故需高度注意后市若然跌破此区，银价或将迎来又一轮较具幅度的下跌，延伸目标为楔形底部14.50美元，另外，还可参考2015year12Monthly low13.60。短线银价则正争持于16.72to17.10美元的三角末段区域。
      
London Silver11Monthly predicted wave amplitude:
Resistance level:17.30 – 18.00 – 18.50 – 19.20
Support bit:16.00 – 15.50 – 15.00 – 14.40

London Silver11month2day
Predicting early wave amplitude:17.00 – 17.50
Resistance level:17.70 – 18.30
Support bit:16.70 – 16.40
                                                      
iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
10month18Day - 10023.77ton
10month19Day - 9994.39ton
10month20Day - 9994.39ton
10month23Day - 9962.09ton
10month24Day - 9962.09ton
10month25Day - 9962.09ton
10month26Day - 9962.09ton
10month27Day - 9962.09ton
10month30Day - 9926.85ton
10month31Day - 9926.85ton
11month1Day - 9926.85ton


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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)