Crossing the Sea 2017year11month6day (Gold)

Crossing the Sea

2017

year

11

month

6

day

Focus this week:
11month6day(Monday)
U.S.A10Monthly employment trend index

11month7day(Tuesday)
U.S.A9monthJOLTS职位空缺数

11month8day(Wednesday)
U.S.A9Monthly Consumer Credit
Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Market Index
Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Refinancing Index

11month9day(Thursday)
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
Four week average in the United States
Number of Americans reapplying for unemployment benefits
U.S.A9月批发库存修订月率
U.S.A9Monthly wholesale sales rate

11month10day(Friday)
U.S.A11Initial monthly University of Michigan consumer confidence index
U.S.A11月密歇根大学现况指数初值
U.S.A11月密歇根大学预期指数初值



Important economic data released today:  
08：30 Australia10monthANZ整体招聘广告月率‧Front value remains unchanged
15：00 Germany9Monthly industrial order rate‧forecast-1.3%‧Previous value+3.6%
16：15 Switzerland10Monthly consumer price index(CPI)Monthly rate‧Previous value+0.2%
16：15 Switzerland10Monthly consumer price index(CPI)the annual rate‧Previous value+0.7%
16：45 Italy10monthMarkit/ADACICIPS services PMI (PMI)‧Previous value53.2
16：50 France10monthMarkitCIPS services PMI (PMI)Final value‧Previous value57.4
16：50 France10monthMarkitComprehensive Purchasing Manager Index(PMI)Final value‧Previous value57.5
16：55 Germany10monthMarkitCIPS services PMI (PMI)Final value‧forecast55.2‧Previous value55.2
16：55 Germany10monthMarkitComprehensive Purchasing Manager Index(PMI)Final value‧Previous value56.9
17：00 eurozone10monthMarkitCIPS services PMI (PMI)Final value‧forecast54.9‧Previous value54.9
17：00 eurozone10monthMarkitComprehensive Purchasing Manager Index(PMI)Final value‧forecast55.9‧Previous value55.9
17：30 eurozone11monthSentixInvestor confidence index‧Previous value29.7
18：00 eurozone9Monthly Producer Price Index(PPI)Monthly rate‧Previous value+0.3%
18：00 eurozone9Monthly Producer Price Index(PPI)the annual rate‧Previous value+2.5%
23：00 U.S.A10Monthly employment trend index‧Previous value132.7
23：00 Canada10monthIveyPurchasing Manager Index(PMI)‧Previous value68.6
23：00 Canada10monthIvey经季节调整采购经理人指数(PMI)‧Previous value59.6



11month3day
LondongoldMorning order price:1275.30
London gold afternoon fixing price:1267.20



XAU London Gold - 金价区间争持，酝酿突破行情

美国总统特朗普周四宣布，提名鲍威尔出任下一届联储主席，打破先例没有让耶伦连任，但暗示她的审慎货币政策将会得到延续。金融市场对鲍威尔获得提名已有所预期，所以没有什么明显反应。特朗普对鲍威尔的提名确保了美联储货币政策的连续性，这意味着美联储仍处于多次加息轨道上，缩表计划也将继续推进。鲍威尔在货币政策上的立场较耶伦稍偏鹰派，这对美元的支撑作用要大于耶伦的政策。另外，美国众议院共和党人周四公布了耽搁已久的税改议案，以兑现总统特朗普大幅减税的承诺。这项议案主要有利于企业及富人，一些企业团体很快出面反对，议案能否通过仍有很大未知数。周五美国公布数据显示，10Monthly increase in non farm employment opportunities26.1万个，逊于预估的31万个，失业率报4.1%, estimated to be4.2%；平均时薪较前月持平，预估为增长0.2%。数据一度打压美元，不过，其后因美国工厂订单和服务业数据强劲，美元又重新走稳，而金价则自1279回落至最低1265水平，但尚未有脱离整周不足20美元的窄幅区间内。

今年金价走势维持着反复上扬，纵然四月及六月曾分别两度受制1300美元关口，但八月底终可作出突破，9month8日攀上今年高峰1357.5美元；只是接下来金价又陷入调整态势，并形成一道下降趋向线于1280水平，倘若金价可突破此区则有望重新延续今年以来之涨势，而上周五金价正正受限此区而后回落。预计向上较大阻力为50Balance moving average1298，之后目标料为1325美元。另外，直至目前而言，金价年内尚处于一组上升通道中运行，顶部位于1385，底部则在1248，故此当前亦要特别留意金价可否守住通道底部，失守或会展开新一轮下跌。以今年累计涨幅计算，38.2%The level of feedback is1268Expand to50%and61.8%Then it is1240and1212USD.

展望本周，特朗普开展长达12天的访问亚洲之旅，届时各方在地缘政治局势、贸易等问题上的立场将备受关注。另外，澳洲、新西兰等国家还将公布利率决议，还有数字重量级央行官员的讲话，可望带来一些经济面和政策面线索。经济数据方面，将重点关注多国CPI、工业生产、贸易收支数据等。

Related news
黄金协会：中国前三季度黄金产量313.089吨，同比下降9.98%
黄金协会：中国前三季度黄金实际消费量815.89Tons, year-on-year growth15.49%

London Gold11month6day – 10Daily predicted wave amplitude:
Resistance level:1273 – 1292 – 1311 – 1324
Support bit:1259 – 1252 – 1233 – 1212

London Gold11month6day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1262 – 1272
Resistance level:1277 – 1286 – 1300
Support bit:1256 – 1242 – 1234

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
10month16Day -853.13ton
10month17Day -853.13ton
10month18Day -853.13ton
10month19Day -853.13ton
10month20Day -853.13ton
10month23Day -853.13ton
10month24Day -853.13ton
10month25Day -853.13ton
10month26Day -851.95ton
10month27Day -850.77ton
10month30Day -850.77ton
10month31Day -850.77ton
11month1Day -849.59ton
11month2Day -846.04ton
11month3Day -845.75ton

12Monthly goldfuturesDue date:12month27day
12Monthly goldoptionDue date:11month27day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Data source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2017year9month8day)

Global:33421.4ton
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3374.1ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.9ton
China(6)：1842.6ton
Russia(7)：1729.4ton
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 银价三角末段争持

伦敦白银方面，从2008year10Monthly low18.42美元起始的较长期上升趋向线，今年7month10日的暴挫，其低位正好止步于在线，而目前趋向线延伸至15美元关口，故需高度注意后市若然跌破此区，银价或将迎来又一轮较具幅度的下跌，延伸目标为楔形底部14.50美元，另外，还可参考2015year12Monthly low13.60。短线银价则正争持于16.80to17.10美元的三角末段区域。

London Silver11month6day – 10Daily predicted wave amplitude
Resistance level:17.20 – 17.60 – 18.20 – 18.50
Support bit:16.40 – 16.10 – 15.50 – 15.00

London Silver11month6day
Predicting early wave amplitude:16.40 – 17.30
Resistance level:17.80 – 18.20
Support bit:15.90 – 15.50

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
10month25Day - 9962.09ton
10month26Day - 9962.09ton
10month27Day - 9962.09ton
10month30Day - 9926.85ton
10month31Day - 9926.85ton
11month1Day - 9926.85ton
11month2Day - 9922.58ton
11month3Day - 9922.58ton



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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)

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