欧阳枫诚：美联储主席将敲定，12月加息预期不变10.22Analysis of Gold Operations

　　preface:

　　

　　包容市场，市场有时候也是需要犯错的，世界上没有任何一套标准能够清晰定义市场的所有状态，市场就是在清晰和混沌中不断切换，混沌状态依然能保持清晰思路是专业投资者的标志之一。市场需要混沌状态来扰乱投资者的心性及判断，从而令大部分投资者亏钱，少部分投资者赚钱的终极结果。市场是不允许大部分人赚钱的，所以如果你要想成为成功的投资者，再市场混沌状态的时候保持客观、冷静。看不懂的机会要不动如山，看懂的行情要动如雷霆，市场证明自己正确的时候要敢于加仓侵略如火。
　　
　　Message surface:
　　
US President Trump(DonaldTrump)Last Saturday(10month21day)表示，他正考虑提名斯坦福大学经济学家泰勒(JohnTaylor)，并晋升美联储理事鲍威尔(JeromePowell)进入美联储领导层。目前特朗普正在权衡美联储主席耶伦(JanetYellen)和副主席的可能接班人选。

　　

　　耶伦连任美联储主席被认为最为利好股市，其次是科恩和鲍威尔当选；而如果沃什当选美联储主席，则温和利空股市，泰勒当选的情况则最不利股市。
　　
　　另外市场预期，尽管美国通胀率较低，但市场对美联储（FED）年内12月加息的预期不变，这对gold来说似乎本周要想反转多头很有难度。加之上周美国参议院通过预算案的消息也是促成了美元急涨、黄金挫跌。
　　
　　Gold Technology Analysis:

　　

　　从日图上看，黄金在三中阴下跌后，探低回升一根中阳K线直接将价格打到1284关口，不过由于多头未能走延续，周五亚盘直接回吐了周四大部分的涨幅，如果是多头的话，不应该会有这么大的回调空间，一般大的回撤空间就容易把趋势转化成空头，同时1290关口是本周的一个起跌口，周五收盘这个位置没有站上，并且收盘价收于1280，所以建议还是依托1282-1285的阻力看空，同时良策提醒留意下方1270的支撑位置，跌破的话，后市将看至1260区域；而从技术指标上看，日图布林通道缩口运行，金价承压布林中轨1284，MA日线及小时线短期均线形成死叉，5Daily moving average underpass10Daily moving average,MACD双线金叉开口收敛，MACD红柱动能再次缩量，KDJandRSI指标交叉向下发散，整体日图黄金偏空发展形态！
　　
　　Analysis of Gold Operations:

　　

　　截止笔者撰稿时黄金交投于1277一线，就笔者看来黄金触底反弹，上方压力1282，上方压力不破我们可以放心高位做空，1278一线入场，止损1284，1282不破可加仓，目标看1270一线，多单在下方为企稳前暂不考虑。笔者预计若是此次黄金跌破1268，未来可能突破前低点1260and even1250Below.
　　
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