袁涛解盘：全面分析黄金走势的几大因素！

　　gold投资市场分析

　　决定黄金买卖成败的诸因素中，最关键的，是对黄金的价位走势是否能够做出正确的分析和判断。黄金买卖不象买大小，完全是*运气，即使能够获得收入，但是结果根本不能控制，应通过一定的分析进行预测。预测价格走向的主要方法有两种：基本分析和技术分析。两者是从两个不同的角度来对市场进行分析，在实际操作中各有各的特色，因此投资者应结合使用。

　　1、黄金投资基本分析所谓基本分析，就是着重从政治、经济、个别市场的外在和内在因素进行分析。再加上其它的投资工具，以确定市场的目前状况是应该入市还是离市，并采取相应策略。

　　以基础分析为主要分析手段的分析家，一整天都在研究金矿公司的行情、政府部门的有关资料以及各个机构的报告，来推测市场的未来走势。基本分析涉及的主要因素在以前我们已经涉及到，概括而言包括：

　　(1)Political instability often leads to favorable conditions for gold prices, and war can cause price increases, supporting the price of gold. And world peace will have a negative impact on the price of gold.

　　(2)The increase or decrease in gold production will affect the balance of gold supply and demand. South Africa has the largest gold production, and any worker strike or other special circumstances will have an impact on its production. Secondly, the production cost of gold will also affect output. stay1992In the year, due to the increase in gold production costs, many gold mines stopped production, leading to a one-time increase in gold prices.

　　(3)Government actions when the government needs to exploitforeign exchangeAt that time, regardless of the price of gold at that time, they would sell their reserves of gold to obtain it. Correspondingly, the data on government gold recycling is also an important indicator affecting gold prices.

　　(4)The demand for gold is not only a value preservation tool, but also for industrial and decorative purposes. The changes in production in industries such as electronics, dentistry, and jewelry that use gold will all affect the price of gold.

　　(5)美元走势美元和黄金是相对的投资工具，如果美元的走势强劲，投资美元就会有更大的收益，因此美元的价格就会受到影响。相反，在美元处于弱市的时候，投资者又会减少其资本对美元的投资，而投向金市，推动金价的强劲。

　　(6)When the price index rises, it means that inflation is intensifying. The arrival of inflation will affect the preservation function of all investments, so the price of gold will also rise and fall. Although the role of gold as a weapon against inflation is no longer as effective as before, high inflation will still have a stimulating effect on gold prices.

　　(7)If interest rates increase, investors will receive higher interest rates on their deposits, which can have a bearish effect on interest free gold. On the contrary, a decrease in interest rates would be more favorable for gold prices.

　　对于黄金走势的基本分析有许多方面，当我们在利用这些因素时，就应当考虑到它们各自作用的强度到底有多大。找到每个因素的主次地位和影响时间段，来进行最佳的投资决策。

　　黄金的基本分析在时间段上分为短期(通常是三个月)因素，和长期因素。我们对于其影响作用要分别对待。

　　2、黄金投资的技术分析士兵要想在战争中获得胜利，除了要配备精良的武器以外，还要练就一身过硬的杀敌本领。同样，投资者在进行黄金交易时，除了要有准确的信息来源以外，还要掌握技术分析这个有利武器。技术分析起源于统计学，它可帮助我们在市场上寻求最佳的介入价格，与基本分析相辅相成，都是不可缺少的分析工具。

Technical analysis is the process of expressing daily price fluctuations in the market, including daily opening price, closing price, highest price, lowest price, trading volume, and other numerical data through charts, in order to predict future price trends. Every analytical method will not be perfect. We cannot overly rely on technical analysis, nor can we lean towards basic analysis.

In theory, after basic analysis, technical analysis can be used to capture the ups and downs of each gold market, buying low and selling high to earn greater profits. Moreover, technical analysis is an objective analysis method based on mathematical statistical equations, with strong logic. It filters out the subjective opinions of investors and is much more reliable than analysts who rely on personal feelings.

　　A、K线图现在的图表都是通过电脑对每一天数据的处理后，而画出的。其最大的功能就是反映大势的状况和价格信息。柱状线可以将金市上每天的开盘价、收盘价、最高价、最低价在一根蜡烛线上表现出来。对金市每日市场的价格走势情况进行汇总，就可以绘成日线图。如果需要进行短线买卖，用同样的道理，可以用较短时间的图形(for example5Minute trend chart)To capture short-term buying and selling signals.

　　图表是市场情况的反映，因此有着不同的走势。为了能够更好的进行分析，人们在图表上添加了一些辅助线，这样一些买卖信号就可以更容易的被我们发现。市场上的常见辅助线有几十种，不同的投资者对它们也各有取舍。本章仅选择有代表性的几个向大家简要介绍。

　　B、交易量直方图交易量表示了在一定时间段内商品或金融工具总的交易行为。通常交易量用直方条来表示(从零点生起的垂直条)。在做图时，作在曲线图或K线图的下端，因而可以将每一时期的价格和交易量图示垂直方向的联系起来。交易量越大，垂直条的高度越大。

　　交易量图提供了表示市场中买卖数量情况的方法。当交易量放大时，表示投资工具的这一价格受到了市场的认可；相反，如果在某一个价位上的交易量很小，表示市场交易者缺乏交易风趣，因此存在市场价格发生逆转的危险。在使用交易量图表确定价格趋势时，有必记住，在市场放假之前或主要市场统计数据公布之前，市场交易也可能清淡。

　　笔者座右铭（威信：ytjp390）：顺应市场，待时而动

　　致力于为投机人士提供有价值的理财策略