Crossing the Sea 2017year9month1day

Crossing the Sea 2017year9month1day

Focus this week:
9month1day(Friday)
U.S.A8Monthly non-agricultural employment positions
U.S.A8Monthly unemployment rate
U.S.A8Monthly average hourly rate
U.S.A8月劳动人口就业参与率
U.S.A8monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIFinal value
U.S.A7Monthly construction expenditure rate
U.S.A8monthISMmanufacturingPMI
U.S.A8Final Value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for the Month

9month4day(Monday)
美国逢劳工节休市

9month5day(Tuesday)
U.S.A8Monthly employment trend index
U.S.A7Monthly factory order rate
U.S.A7Monthly rate of durable goods orders

9month6day(Wednesday)
U.S.A7Monthly International Trade Balance
U.S.A7月商品贸易平衡
U.S.A8monthMarkitcomprehensivePMIFinal value
U.S.A8monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value
U.S.A8monthISMNon manufacturing index

9month7day(Thursday)
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
美国第二季非农单位劳工成本修订
美国第二季非农单位生产率



Today's important economic data:   
20：30 U.S.A8Monthly non-agricultural employment positions‧Forecast increase18.0Ten thousand‧Previous value increase20.9Ten thousand
20：30 U.S.A8Monthly private employment positions‧Forecast increase17.9Ten thousand‧Previous value increase20.5Ten thousand
20：30 U.S.A8Monthly manufacturing employment positions‧Forecast increase0.9Ten thousand‧Previous value increase1.6Ten thousand
20：30 U.S.A8月政府就业岗位‧Previous value increase0.4Ten thousand
20：30 U.S.A8Monthly unemployment rate‧forecast4.3%‧Previous value4.3%
20：30 U.S.A8Monthly average hourly rate‧forecast+0.2%‧Previous value+0.3%
20：30 U.S.A8月平均每周工时‧forecast34.5‧Previous value34.5
20：30 U.S.A8月劳动人口就业参与率‧Previous value62.9%
21：30 Canada8monthMarkitSeasonally Adjusted Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)‧Previous value55.5
21：45 U.S.A8monthMarkitManufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)Final value‧Previous value52.5
22：00 U.S.A7Monthly construction expenditure rate‧forecast+0.5%‧Previous value-1.3%
22：00 U.S.A8monthISMManufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)‧forecast56.5‧Previous value56.3
22：00 U.S.A8monthISMManufacturing input price sub index‧forecast62.0‧Previous value62.0
22：00 U.S.A8monthISMManufacturing employment sub index‧forecast54.0‧Previous value55.2
22：00 U.S.A8monthISM制造业新订单分项指数‧Previous value60.4
22：00 U.S.A8Final Value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for the Month‧forecast97.4‧Previous value97.6
22：00 U.S.A8The final value of the monthly University of Michigan Current Situation Index‧forecast111.0‧Previous value111.0
22：00 U.S.A8The final value of the monthly University of Michigan Expectancy Index‧forecast88.3‧Previous value89.0
22：00 U.S.A8月密歇根大学一年通胀预期终值‧Previous value2.6%
22：00 U.S.A8月密歇根大学五年通胀预期终值‧Previous value2.5%


News of the Week


Monday/U.S.A7月批发库存增加0.4%，零售库存下降0.2%
U.S.A7月商品贸易收支初值为逆差651.0USD100mn

Tuesday/朝鲜发射导弹飞过日本领空，半岛紧张情势急剧升级
标普认为美国政府若能避免违约，便可保住AA+credit rating

U.S.A8The monthly consumer confidence index is122.9
U.S.A6Monthly standard and standard/CASE-SHILLER 20个大都会地区房价较上年上涨5.7%



8month31day
LondongoldMorning order price:1305.80
London gold afternoon fixing price:1311.75


概论
Today's Introduction


美国数据黯淡打压美元，市场静候非农报告

美元周四再复承压，市场交投谨慎，投资者静候美国重要的月度非农就业报告，此前公布的经济数据不佳，令人质疑美联储今年是否还会升息。周四公布的数据显示，美国7月消费者支出增幅略低于预期，通胀年率为逾一年半最低，美国今年12月升息的预期大大减弱。劳工部报告，截至8month26日当周，美国初请失业金人数增加1,000People, seasonally adjusted for23.6万人。路透访查的93位分析师的预估中值为，周五公布的非农就业报告料显示，8Monthly increase in non farm employment opportunities18Ten thousand. according toCME GroupofFedWatch，金融市场预计美联储12月会议升息的可能性约为三分之一，上个月的预期还在50%上下。不过，外界仍预期美联储将在本月稍后的会议上宣布缩表计划，即开始削减4.2万亿的美国公债和抵押支持证券组合。另外，美国仍存在政治风险，此外还有地缘政治紧张局势，尤其是围绕朝鲜的局势。美国财长努钦(Steven Mnuchin)的讲话也令美元承压。他在CNBC表示，美元走软或许对美国贸易有利。他还称，受热带风暴哈维影响，美国需要上调举债上限的限期可能提前。



XAU London Gold - 金价重探高位，关注非农报告


投资者在等待即将公布的美国就业数据，以从中判断利率前景。不过朝鲜半岛紧张局势持续的背景下，避险需求令金价保持在九个半月高位附近。金价周四涨见1323水平，距离周二创下的逾九个月高位1325.94美元不远。韩国称，韩空军与两架可进行核打击的美国轰炸机周四在朝鲜半岛上空执行了一项联合演练。美国国务院周四表示，美国已要求俄罗斯关闭在旧金山的领事馆，以及在华盛顿和纽约的各一处外交设施，以报复莫斯科要求美国裁减驻俄外交人员的做法。

图表走势所见，在企稳1300美元关口后，技术上可望以整固双底的型态继续往上冲，以6month6Daily high1296to7month10Daily low1204的相距幅度计算，上延涨幅可推算至1388美元。另外，去年11month9日，金价曾一度飊涨至1337.40美元，这亦会为一个上阻参考。由2012Year to2015年累计跌幅750美元，黄金比率计算38.2%的反弹可至1333Expand to50%Then it is1420水平。支持位方面，较近先留意1316and1309To the next level1293USD.

      
London Gold9Monthly forecast amplitude:
Resistance level:1333 – 1361 – 1381 – 1441
Support bit:1303 – 1283 – 1229 – 1154

London Gold9month1day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1316 – 1334
Resistance level:1354 – 1364
Support bit:1309 – 1293

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
8month7Day - 786.87ton
8month8Day - 786.87ton
8month9Day - 786.87ton
8month10Day - 786.87ton
8month11Day - 786.87ton
8month14Day - 791.01ton
8month15Day - 791.01ton
8month16Day - 795.44ton
8month17Day - 795.44ton
8month18Day - 799.29ton
8month21Day - 799.29ton
8month22Day - 799.29ton
8month23Day - 799.29ton
8month24Day - 799.29ton
8month25Day -805.20ton
8month28Day -814.36ton
8month29Day -816.43ton
8month30Day -816.43ton
8month31Day -816.43ton

8Monthly goldfuturesDue date:8month29day
12Monthly goldoptionDue date:11month27day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Data source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2017year7month7day)

Global:33465.1(+39.5ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3374.1ton (-3.2ton)
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.9ton
China(6)：1842.6ton
Russia(7)：1715.8ton (+28.5ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(93)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 银价上破三角，延展进一步涨势


伦敦白银方面，银价在周一已突破缘自6月初高位的下降趋向线，亦即同时为三角型态的顶部，此前两周银价一直处于窄幅横盘，随着银价向上破位，料银价可进一步伸延近月的升势，下一级阻力将看至17.71and18.00美元，较大阻力则料为18.30美元。下方依据为起延至7month7日的上升趋向线，目前设立支撑于17.25美元，较大支撑在17.00and16.70USD.   

London Silver9Monthly forecast amplitude:
Resistance level:17.71 – 18.40 – 18.88 – 20.50
Support bit:17.00 – 16.70 – 15.60 – 14.00

London Silver9month1day
Predicting early wave amplitude:17.40 – 17.71
Resistance level:18.00 – 18.30 – 18.81
Support bit:17.30 – 17.00 – 16.70
                          
iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
8month14Day - 10445.33ton
8month15Day - 10445.33ton
8month16Day - 10445.33ton
8month17Day - 10401.24ton
8month18Day - 10401.24ton
8month21Day - 10401.24ton
8month22Day - 10401.24ton
8month23Day - 10401.24ton
8month24Day - 10363.03ton
8month25Day - 10363.03ton
8month28Day - 10363.03ton
8month29Day - 10363.03ton
8month30Day - 10363.03ton
8month31Day - 10318.94ton

  
EUR euro - 投资者关注下周欧洲央行会议

欧元兑美元过去两周依然维持强势，尽管美国与朝鲜之间的僵局堪忧。再加上美国政府数字高管先后离职，总统特朗普企业税削减和大规模基建支出的计划迄今仍未在国会通过，一些投资者开始重新评估他们对欧元的看法。对美国通货再膨胀以及白宫乱象的失望情绪，使得欧元的相对具有吸引力。欧元兑美元今年以来已上涨近14%，引起了投资者对其结构性力道的关注。欧元周二一度升破1.20美元，创下两年半新高，此前欧洲央行总裁德拉吉在杰克森霍尔会议上并未提及对欧元升值感到担忧。

欧元周五走跌，8月刚创下连续第六个月录得涨幅，投资人准备迎接下周欧洲央行会议，会中料将讨论欧元走强的影响。根据最新路透调查，79位受访分析师之中，仅15人预测欧洲央行9月会议将宣布削减资产购买计划。市场预期欧元强势表现将促使央行官员发表评论。三名知情人士透露，欧洲央行在下周四会议上不大可能就削减资产购买计划作出任何决定，该计划将只会缓慢逐步退出，因欧元兑美元的快速升值令越来越多的欧洲央行决策者担忧。

技术图表所见，以自2014Year to2016年欧元的累计跌幅计算，50%The rebound level is1.2170Expand to61.8%Then it is1.26. Additionally,200个平均线1.2360亦可作为一阻力参考。预估下方支持先留意1.1910，下一级则指向1.18Horizontal.   


Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2170 -1.2360 - 1.2600
support 1.2000 -1.1800

Focus:
9month1day(five): France8monthMarkitmanufacturingPMI‧Germany8monthMarkit/BMEmanufacturingPMI‧eurozone8monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIFinal value‧意大利第二季GDPFinal value
9month4day(one): Eurozone9monthSentixInvestor confidence index‧eurozone7monthPPI
9month5day(two): Italy8monthMarkit/ADACIService industryPMI‧France8monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIFinal value‧Germany8monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIFinal value‧eurozone8monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIFinal value‧Eurozone Q2GDP修订‧eurozone7Monthly retail sales
9month6day(three): Germany7Monthly industrial order rate‧Italy7Monthly retail sales
9month7day(four): Germany7Monthly industrial production rate‧France7Monthly current account‧trade balance‧Import‧Export‧Europe9Monthly central bank refinancing rate‧Deposit interest rate

Related news
Germany9monthGFKConsumer confidence index rises10.9
France7月消费者支出较前月升0.7%
France Season 2GDP终值为较前季增长0.5%
Germany7月经季调的按ILO标准计算的就业人口增长4.2ten thousand people
Italy8Monthly manufacturing industryPMIUp to56.3, for2011year2The highest since the beginning of the month

JPY yen - 日圆反复争持


4-6月日本企业放缓工厂和设备方面的资本投资步伐，意味着日本政府将下修对第二季经济增速的初估值。日本企业4-6月资本支出同比增长1.5%Below1-3month4.5%的增幅，受车企和生产设备制造企业支出下降的影响。财务省周五公布的数据显示，扣除软件方面的支出，经季节调整后企业资本支出较上季下降2.8%，1-3月数据下修为增加0.9%。4-6月日本国内生产总值(GDP)The initial value of the month on month annual rate is growth4.0%，分析师认为这是因为国内需求出现了期待已久的提高。但资本支出放缓表明，GDP环比年率增速或将下修至增长3.0%左右，这可能打击人们对日本政府经济政策的信心。初值显示第二季经济环比年率为增长4.0%，创逾两年来最快增速。

日本财务大臣麻生太郎周五表示，由于朝鲜给本国国家安全带来不确定性，将取消出访美国的计划。此前朝鲜发射一枚导弹飞越日本上空。美元兑日圆周五小升至110水平附近，远高于本周所及四个半月低点108.265Japanese yen.
图表所见，双顶型态的两个顶部分别为5month11Of114.36and7month11Of114.49，颈线位置即6month14day108.81，视为一个关键水平，倘若成功破位，下试目标预估可至108To the extent that107.20，关键直指105关口。上方阻力参考25The current position of the balance moving average109.90as well as112.20水平，较大阻力则留意114.50Horizontal.
      

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 110.65 – 112.20 – 114.50*
support 108.80**– 108.00 – 107.20


Focus:
9month6day(three): Japan7Monthly overtime pay
9month7day(four): Japan8end of the monthforeign exchangereserve‧Japan invested in foreign bonds last week‧Last week, foreign investment in Japanese stocks
9month8day(five): Japan8月银行贷款年率‧Japan7月流动帐平衡‧Japan Season 2GDPRevised month on month annual rate‧GDPSeasonal rate revision


Related news
Japan7The monthly talent seeking job search ratio is1.52, creating1974year2The highest since the beginning of the month
Japan7The adjusted unemployment rate for the menstrual season is2.8%
Japan7Monthly household expenses have decreased compared to the previous month1.9%, decreased compared to the same period last year0.2%
日本第二季资本支出同比增长1.5%，经季节调整较上季下降2.8%



GBP pound - 英镑短线弱势依然


美元周四承压，美国公布不如人意的经济数据，引发外界质疑美国联邦储备理事会(FED/Federal Reserve)年底能否再度升息，美元因而走跌。美国7月消费者支出升幅略低于预期，通胀年增率则是创下2015年底以来最小增幅，导致美元兑一篮子货币回吐稍早的升幅。投资人目前焦点转向周五稍晚公布的美国月度就业数据。根据对93位分析师进行的路透调查，预估中值显示8Monthly non farm employment opportunities are expected to increase18Ten thousand.

图表所见，英镑兑美元显著跌破上升趋向线，并横盘一周多时间后，于上周二更跌破50天平均线，估计后市若再而跌破7月险守着的1.28关口，料英镑将出现较具规模的调整。同时，MACD已初步跌破讯号线，亦反映着汇价作进一步下跌的机会较大。预计向下延伸支持料为250Balance moving average1.2640水平。另一方面，阻力可参考1.30and25Balance moving average1.3050水平，下一级料为1.3160。

      
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3000 -1.3040 – 1.3160
support 1.2800 -1.2640
                                                   

Focus:
9month1day(five): UK8monthMarkit/CIPSmanufacturingPMI
9month4day(one): UK8monthMarkit/CIPScomprehensivePMI
9month5day(two): UK8monthBRC同店零售销售年率‧Markit/CIPSService industryPMI
9month7day(four): UK8monthHalifaxMonthly rate of housing price index‧by8Three months of the monthHalifaxAnnual rate of housing price index


Related news
欧盟敦促迅速进行退欧谈判；英国则寻求弹性
英国国际贸易大臣福克斯：英国不会被欧盟胁迫同意支付退欧“分手费”

NATIONWIDE: UK8月房价较前月下跌0.1%, up from the same period last year2.1%

郎
CHF Swiss franc - 避险情绪推动瑞郎

技术图表所见，预估支持则可会看至0.9430及以至参考2015year8Monthly low0.9251。至于上方阻力则预估为0.9560and100Balance moving average0.9740Horizontal.
      
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.9560 -0.9740
support 0.9430 -0.9251
                                

Related news
Switzerland8monthKOF领先成长指标为104.1
UBS Group(UBS)7月瑞士消费指标微升至1.38
Switzerland8Monthly Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)by61.2, creating2011year2The highest since the beginning of the month
Switzerland7Monthly retail sales decreased compared to the same period last year0.7%

Focus:
9month5day(two)Switzerland Season 2GDP‧Switzerland8monthCPI

AUD AUD -  澳元呈现区间波动


澳元兑美元走势，澳元在7月底触及两年高点0.8066，但之后一直在0.8美元附近遭遇阻力，而且投资者仍对与朝鲜相关的地缘政治紧张局势保持警惕，风险偏好下滑，导致澳元上涨乏力。技术走势而言，澳元兑美元在近期区间内波动，近四周大部分时间处于0.78to0.80区间，需待破位后才有较明确方向。较大阻力则可留意50Monthly average line0.8050To the extent that0.8170水平。另一边厢，倘若向下破位，则料澳元将步入调整阶段。以去年十二月低位0.7160起始的累计涨幅计算，38.2%and50%的回调水平为0.7720and0.7610Expand to61.8%by0.7505Horizontal.

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7950 -0.8000 – 0.8050 – 0.8230
support 0.7780 -0.7720 - 0.7610 – 0.7505
                                                   

Related news
澳洲第二季经季节调整的建筑完工额较前季跳增9.3%
Australia7月建筑许可经季调后较前月下降1.7%, decreased compared to the same period last year13.9%

Focus:
9month4day(one)：澳洲第二季商业库存‧商业获利‧商业税前获利
9month5day(two): Australia8monthAIGService Industry Index‧Australia9月央行公布利率决定
9month6day(three): Australia Season 2GDP‧最终消费支出季率‧资本支出
9month7day(four): Australia8monthAIG建筑业指数‧Australia7Monthly retail sales rate‧Trade balance of goods and services‧Import‧Export


NZD New Zealand dollars - 新西兰央行总裁称乐见本币贬值以刺激通胀


纽元于本周有机会录得第五周收低，因民调显示新西兰反 对党支持率大幅上升，这让投资者在即将到来的大选前保持警戒。纽二周四触及6month6The lowest level since the beginning of the day0.7132。纽元8月下挫4.4%, for2016year1月以来最大单月跌幅。周五公布的数据显示，新西兰第二季贸易条件升幅不及预期，乐观的第一季数据亦被下修。

纽元兑美元仍延续着低位横盘，相对强弱指标及随机指数仍然处于下行，示意纽元仍倾向维持探低。倘若以五月至今的累积升幅计算，50%的回吐水平会看至0.7190Horizontal, extended to61.8%Then in the0.71。目前关键支持预估为250Balance moving average0.7140To the extent that0.70关口，假若双双失守则纽元料会面临新一轮跌势，下延支撑先可看至0.68水平。另一方面，上方阻力见于50Balance moving average0.7330，过去两周汇价亦未可扳回此区之上。另外，较瞩目为100Monthly average line0.7570Since last year9月触碰以来，汇价就一直没能冲破此技术指标，因此，若可突破此区，纽元兑美元才可望摆脱势。

     
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7330 -0.7570 - 0.7745
support 0.7140 – 0.7000 -0.6800/40
                                                         

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Focus:
9month8day(five)：新西兰第二季制造业销售季率


CAD Cad - 加元再探1.24resistance加元再探1.24resistance

美元兑加元方面，汇价于七月底在1.24止住了跌势，其后持续反弹至8month15Rigaojian1.2778，但此后重新回落，至今重回1.24区间。图表所见，若果美元兑加元进一步下破1.24这个关键水平，预料将延伸弱势，下探支持看至1.2175To the extent that1.20关口，进一步则会参考2015year5Monthly low1.1916。上方阻力则会回看25Balance moving average1.2590and1.28Horizontal. Calculated by the golden ratio,38.2%的反弹幅度见于1.2940Horizontal, extended to50%Then it is1.31。
      

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2720 -1.2940
support 1.2400* – 1.2175 – 1.2000
                                                         

Focus:  
9month1day(five): Canada8monthMarkimanufacturingPMI
9month4day(one)：加拿大逢劳工节休市
9month6day(three): Canada7Monthly trade balance‧Export‧Import‧加拿大第二季劳动生产率季率‧Central bank interest rate determination
9month7day(four): Canada7Monthly building permit rate‧Canada8monthIvey PMI



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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)