Crossing the Sea 2017year8month31day (foreign exchange)

Crossing the Sea

2017

year

8

month

31

day

EUR euro - 欧元继续持稳，瞩目非农报告

中国及美国经济数据强于预期，激发对于全球高风险资产的胃纳，即便朝鲜紧张局势犹存。国家统计局和物流与采购联合会(CFLP)周四联合公布，宏观经济先行指针--8Monthly Official Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)Ascend to51.7，远超路透调查预估中值51.3和上月的51.4，为年内次高水平。数据增添了乐观人气。美国第二季国内生产总值(GDP)The month on month annual rate correction value is growth3.0%, the previous value is growth2.6%，部分因消费者支出和企业投资强劲。另外一项数据显示，美国8月民间新增就业岗位23.7万个，为五个月来最大单月增幅，预示周五公布的非农就业数据可能强劲。

随着过去三个交易日的强势上冲，令至MACD亦已突破讯号线，示意着中期升势大有机会延续。以自2014Year to2016年欧元的累计跌幅计算，50%The rebound level is1.2170Expand to61.8%Then it is1.26. Additionally,200个平均线1.2360亦可作为一阻力参考。预估下方支持先留意1.1910，下一级则指向1.18Horizontal.
      
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2170 - 1.2360 - 1.2600
support 1.2000 - 1.1800

Focus:
8month31day(four): Germany7Monthly actual retail sales‧France8monthHICPAnnual rate initial value‧France7monthPPIMonthly rate‧Italy7Monthly unemployment rate‧Germany8Changes in monthly unemployment numbers‧Unemployed population‧unemployment rate‧Italy8monthCPIinitial value‧HICPinitial value‧eurozone8monthHICPAnnual rate initial value‧Deducting food and energy expensesHICPAnnual rate initial value‧eurozone7Monthly unemployment rate
9month1day(five): Italy8monthMarkit/ADACImanufacturingPMI‧France8monthMarkitmanufacturingPMI‧Germany8monthMarkit/BMEmanufacturingPMI‧eurozone8monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIFinal value‧意大利第二季GDPFinal value

Related news
Germany9monthGFKConsumer confidence index rises10.9
France7月消费者支出较前月升0.7%
France Season 2GDP终值为较前季增长0.5%
Germany7月经季调的按ILO标准计算的就业人口增长4.2ten thousand people


JPY yen - 美元反弹，因朝鲜相关担忧缓解

美元全线上涨。此前美国公布的经济数据好于预期，提升了市场对于非农就业报告将表现强劲美元兑日圆触及两周高点，此前美国第二季国内生产总值(GDP)环比年率上修至增长3.0%, the previous value is growth2.6%，反应消费者支出和企业投资强劲。民间就业服务机构ADP Employer Services周三表示，美国8月民营雇主新增237,000个就业岗位，创下五个月来最大月度增幅，且优于分析师们的预期。该数据提振了美元并令市场对8月非农就业数据的预期升温。

图表所见，双顶型态的两个顶部分别为5month11Of114.36and7month11Of114.49，颈线位置即6month14day108.81，视为一个关键水平，倘若成功破位，下试目标预估可至108To the extent that107.20，关键直指105关口。上方阻力参考25The current position of the balance moving average109.90as well as112.20水平，较大阻力则留意114.50Horizontal.
      
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 110.65 – 112.20 – 114.50*
support 108.80** – 108.00 – 107.20

Focus:
8month30day(three): Japan7Monthly retail sales annual rate
8month31day(four): Japan7Monthly construction order annual rate‧房屋开工年率‧工业生产初值‧Japan8月一个月预估值‧Japan9月两个月预估值‧Japan invested in foreign bonds last week‧Last week, foreign investment in Japanese stocks
9month1day(five)：日本第二季商业资本支出年率‧Japan8Monthly and daily manufacturing industryPMI‧Consumer confidence index


Related news
Japan7The monthly talent seeking job search ratio is1.52, creating1974year2The highest since the beginning of the month
Japan7The adjusted unemployment rate for the menstrual season is2.8%
Japan7Monthly household expenses have decreased compared to the previous month1.9%, decreased compared to the same period last year0.2%


GBP pound - 英镑短线弱势依然

图表所见，英镑兑美元显著跌破上升趋向线，并横盘一周多时间后，于上周二更跌破50天平均线，估计后市若再而跌破7月险守着的1.28关口，料英镑将出现较具规模的调整。同时，MACD已初步跌破讯号线，亦反映着汇价作进一步下跌的机会较大。预计向下延伸支持料为250Balance moving average1.2640水平。另一方面，阻力可参考1.30and25Balance moving average1.3050水平，下一级料为1.3160。      

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3000 - 1.3040 – 1.3160
support 1.2800 - 1.2640

Focus:
8month30day(three): UK7Monthly Consumer Credit‧抵押贷款发放金额‧Number of approved mortgage loans‧M4Monthly rate of goods supply
8month31day(four): UK8monthGfKConsumer confidence index
9month1day(five): UK8monthMarkit/CIPSmanufacturingPMI

Related news
欧盟敦促迅速进行退欧谈判；英国则寻求弹性

NATIONWIDE: UK8月房价较前月下跌0.1%, up from the same period last year2.1%


CHF Swiss franc - 避险情绪推动瑞郎

技术图表所见，预估支持则可会看至0.9430及以至参考2015year8Monthly low0.9251。至于上方阻力则预估为0.9560and100Balance moving average0.9740Horizontal.
      
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.9560 - 0.9740
support 0.9430 - 0.9251

Related news
Switzerland8monthKOF领先成长指标为104.1
UBS Group(UBS)7月瑞士消费指标微升至1.38

Focus:
9month1day(five)Switzerland7Monthly retail sales annual rate‧Switzerland8Monthly manufacturing industryPMI


AUD AUD - 澳元呈现区间波动

澳元周四脱离一个月高点，因美元受强劲美国经济数据提振上涨。澳元在7月底触及两年高点0.8066，但之后一直在0.8美元附近的强技术阻力位附近徘徊。澳元兑美元本月月线料下跌1.2%，因美元全线走强，且投资者仍对与朝鲜相关的地缘政治紧张局势保持警惕。美元上日上涨，此前美国公布第二季国内生产总值(GDP)环比年率上修至成长3%，创下逾两年来最大增幅。此外，民间就业服务机构ADP Employer Services周三表示，美国8月民营雇主新增23.7万个就业岗位，创下五个月来最大月度增幅，且优于分析师们的预期。国内因素方面，澳元受到近期表现不俗的经济指标支撑。澳洲统计局周四公布的数据显示，第二季经季节调整的资本支出增加0.8%至近283亿澳元，高于市场预估的增加0.3%。

技术走势而言，澳元兑美元在近期区间内波动，上周大部分时间处于0.7880to0.7950的区间，需待破位后才有较明确方向。较大阻力则可留意0.80Pass, the next level is visible50Monthly average line0.8050。另一边厢，以去年十二月低位0.7160起始的累计涨幅计算，38.2%and50%的回调水平为0.7720and0.7610Expand to61.8%by0.7505。
      
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7950 - 0.8000 – 0.8050 – 0.8230
support 0.7780 - 0.7720 - 0.7610 – 0.7505

Related news
澳洲第二季经季节调整的建筑完工额较前季跳增9.3%
Australia7月建筑许可经季调后较前月下降1.7%, decreased compared to the same period last year13.9%

Focus:
8month31day(four): Australia7monthHIA新屋销售月率‧澳洲第二季资本支出季率‧前建筑资本支出季率‧厂房/机械设备资本支出‧Australia7月民间部门信贷月率‧房屋信贷月率
9month1day(five): Australia8monthAIGManufacturing Index



NZD New Zealand dollars - 新西兰央行总裁称乐见本币贬值以刺激通胀

纽元兑美元仍延续着低位横盘，相对强弱指标及随机指数仍然处于下行，示意纽元仍倾向维持探低。倘若以五月至今的累积升幅计算，50%的回吐水平会看至0.7190Horizontal, extended to61.8%Then in the0.71。目前关键支持预估为250Balance moving average0.7140To the extent that0.70关口，假若双双失守则纽元料会面临新一轮跌势，下延支撑先可看至0.68水平。另一方面，上方阻力见于50Balance moving average0.7330，过去两周汇价亦未可扳回此区之上。另外，较瞩目为100Monthly average line0.7570Since last year9月触碰以来，汇价就一直没能冲破此技术指标，因此，若可突破此区，纽元兑美元才可望摆脱势。
      
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7330 - 0.7570 - 0.7745
support 0.7140 – 0.7000 - 0.6800/40

Related news
央行总裁惠勒：要提高可贸易品通胀，需要纽元贬值

New Zealand7月建筑许可经季调后较前月下降0.7%

Focus:
8month31day(four): New Zealand8monthNBNZ商业展望指数‧NBNZBusiness Activity Index
9month1day(five)：新西兰第二季贸易条件季率



CAD Cad - 加元再探1.24resistance

美元兑加元方面，汇价于七月底在1.24止住了跌势，其后持续反弹至8month15Rigaojian1.2778，但此后重新回落，至今重回1.24区间。图表所见，若果美元兑加元进一步下破1.24这个关键水平，预料将延伸弱势，下探支持看至1.2175To the extent that1.20关口，进一步则会参考2015year5Monthly low1.1916。上方阻力则会回看25Balance moving average1.2590and1.28水平。以gold比率计算，38.2%的反弹幅度见于1.2940Horizontal, extended to50%Then it is1.31。
      
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2720 - 1.2940
support 1.2400* – 1.2175 – 1.2000

Focus:   
8month30day(three)：加拿大第二季流动帐平衡
8month31day(four): Canada Season 2GDPSeasonal rate‧GDPMonth on month annual rate‧Canada6monthGDPMonthly rate
9month1day(five): Canada8monthMarkimanufacturingPMI

Related news
Canada7Monthly industrial product prices have declined compared to the previous month1.5%, up from the same period last year1.3%




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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)