Crossing the Sea 2017year8month31day(Gold)

Crossing the Sea

2017

year

8

month

31

day

Focus this week:
8month31day(Thursday)
U.S.A8monthChallengerNumber of layoffs planned by the company
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
U.S.A7月实质个人消费月率
U.S.A7Monthly personal income rate
U.S.A7月经季节调整个人支出月率
U.S.A7monthPCEprice index
U.S.A7Dallas Federal Reserve BankPCE
U.S.A8Month ChicagoPMI
U.S.A7Monthly Housing Pending Sales Index

9month1day(Friday)
U.S.A8Monthly non-agricultural employment positions
U.S.A8Monthly unemployment rate
U.S.A8Monthly average hourly rate
U.S.A8月劳动人口就业参与率
U.S.A8monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIFinal value
U.S.A7Monthly construction expenditure rate
U.S.A8monthISMmanufacturingPMI
U.S.A8Final Value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for the Month

Today's important economic data:   
17：00 Italy8Monthly consumer price index(CPI)Initial monthly rate‧forecast+0.2%‧Previous value+0.1%
17：00 Italy8Monthly consumer price index(CPI)Annual rate initial value‧forecast+1.1%‧Previous value+1.1%
17：00 Italy8Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)Initial monthly rate‧Forecast remains unchanged‧Previous value-1.9%
17：00 Italy8Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)Annual rate initial value‧forecast+1.3%‧Previous value+1.2%
17：00 eurozone8Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)Annual rate initial value‧forecast+1.4%‧Previous value+1.3%
17：00 eurozone8Monthly deduction of food and energyHICPAnnual rate initial value‧forecast+1.2%‧Previous value+1.3%
17：00 eurozone7Monthly unemployment rate‧forecast9.1%‧Previous value9.1%
19：30 U.S.A8monthChallengerNumber of layoffs planned by the company‧Previous value28,307individual
20：30 Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States(8month26Day and Week)‧forecast23.7ten thousand people‧Previous value23.4ten thousand people
20：30 Four week average in the United States(8month26Day and Week)‧Previous value23.775ten thousand people
20：30 Number of Americans reapplying for unemployment benefits(8month19Day and Week)‧forecast195.0ten thousand people‧Previous value195.4ten thousand people
20：30 U.S.A7月实质个人消费月率‧Front value remains unchanged
20：30 U.S.A7Monthly personal income rate‧forecast+0.3%‧Front value remains unchanged
20：30 U.S.A7月经季节调整个人支出月率‧forecast+0.4%‧Previous value+0.1%
20：30 U.S.A7Monthly core personal consumption expenditure(PCE)Monthly rate of price index‧forecast+0.1%‧Previous value+0.1%
20：30 U.S.A7Monthly core personal consumption expenditure(PCE)Annual rate of price index‧Previous value+1.5%
20：30 U.S.A7Monthly personal consumption expenditure(PCE)Monthly rate of price index‧Front value remains unchanged
20：30 U.S.A7Monthly personal consumption expenditure(PCE)Annual rate of price index‧Previous value+1.4%
20：30 Canada's Q2 Gross Domestic Product(GDP)Seasonal rate‧Previous value+0.9%
20：30 Canada's Q2 Gross Domestic Product(GDP)Month on month annual rate‧forecast+3.7%‧Previous value+3.7%
20：30 Canada6Monthly Gross Domestic Product(GDP)Monthly rate‧forecast+0.1%‧Previous value+0.6%
21：00 U.S.A7Dallas Federal Reserve BankPCE‧Previous value+1.3%
21：45 U.S.A8Monthly Chicago Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)‧forecast58.5‧Previous value58.9
22：00 U.S.A7Monthly Housing Pending Sales Index‧Previous value110.2
22：00 U.S.A7Monthly sales rate of completed houses to be completed‧forecast+0.5%‧Previous value+1.5%


News of the Week
Monday/U.S.A7月批发库存增加0.4%，零售库存下降0.2%
U.S.A7月商品贸易收支初值为逆差651.0USD100mn

Tuesday/朝鲜发射导弹飞过日本领空，半岛紧张情势急剧升级
标普认为美国政府若能避免违约，便可保住AA+credit rating

U.S.A8The monthly consumer confidence index is122.9
U.S.A6Monthly standard and standard/CASE-SHILLER 20个大都会地区房价较上年上涨5.7%


8month30day
LondongoldMorning order price:1310.60
London gold afternoon fixing price:1308.50


Today's Introduction
美国总统特朗普周二发出警告称，朝鲜发射弹道导弹飞越日本北海道北方落入海中以展示武力，美国对此进行响应的所有选项都在台面上。朝鲜此次导弹试射进一步加剧了东亚的紧张局势，美国和韩国在朝鲜半岛举行年度军事演习，触怒了把军演视为侵略准备的朝鲜。朝鲜在金正恩的领导下，不顾联合国制裁，已进行数十次弹道导弹试射，但飞越日本本土的发射实属罕见。特朗普称，全世界已“一清二楚地”收到了朝鲜最新发出的信息；他曾誓言不会让朝鲜研发出可攻击美国本土的核导弹。白宫称，特朗普和日本首相安倍晋三表示并同意朝鲜对美国、日本和韩国“构成严重及愈来愈直接的威胁”。在朝鲜发射导弹后，投资人涌向避险资产。美元指数跌至逾两年半低位，但之后反弹；10年期美债收益率下跌，金价触及逾九个月高位。

朝鲜中央通讯社周三报导，朝鲜领导人金正恩在周二的一次演习中指导了火星-12中程弹道导弹的发射，意在反击韩国和美国军队的联合军事演习。美国国防部发言人ColonelRobert Manning称，外交手段仍是华盛顿处理朝鲜问题的优先选项。朝鲜誓言绝不放弃其武器计划，称这是对抗美国及其盟友敌意所必需的。




XAU London Gold - 美国强劲数据打压金价

周四美元在中国和美国乐观经济数据的激励下上扬，金价下跌，但朝鲜紧张局势引发的避险需求令跌幅受限，金价守在1300美元关口上方。虽然围绕朝鲜问题的紧张氛围在发酵，但美国乐观经济数据提振全球对风险资产的偏好。美国第二季经济增长速度快于之前的估计，录得逾两年最快增速，且有迹象显示，第三季初经济继续保持强劲增长的势头。另外，民间就业服务机构ADPEmployer Services周三表示，美国8月民营雇主新增237,000个就业岗位，创下五个月来最大月度增幅，且优于分析师们的预期。

图表走势所见，在企稳1300美元关口后，技术上可望以整固双底的型态继续往上冲，以6month6Daily high1296to7month10Daily low1204的相距幅度计算，上延涨幅可推算至1388美元。另外，去年11month9日，金价曾一度飊涨至1337.40美元，这亦会为一个上阻参考。由2012Year to2015年累计跌幅750美元，黄金比率计算38.2%的反弹可至1333Expand to50%Then it is1420Horizontal. However,RSI及随机指数见下跌，或预示金价有调整倾向。支持位方面，较近先留意1290and1273To the next level1256USD.
      
London Gold8month31day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1290 - 1309
Resistance level:1318 - 1328
Support bit:1273 - 1256

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
8month1Day - 791.88ton
8month2Day - 791.88ton
8month3Day - 791.88ton
8month4Day - 787.14ton
8month7Day - 786.87ton
8month8Day - 786.87ton
8month9Day - 786.87ton
8month10Day - 786.87ton
8month11Day - 786.87ton
8month14Day - 791.01ton
8month15Day - 791.01ton
8month16Day - 795.44ton
8month17Day - 795.44ton
8month18Day - 799.29ton
8month21Day - 799.29ton
8month22Day - 799.29ton
8month23Day - 799.29ton
8month24Day - 799.29ton
8month25Day -805.20ton
8month28Day -814.36ton
8month29Day -816.43ton
8month30Day -816.43ton

8Monthly goldfuturesDue date:8month29day
12Monthly goldoptionDue date:11month27day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Data source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2017year7month7day)

Global:33465.1 (+39.5ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3374.1ton (-3.2ton)
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.9ton
China(6)：1842.6ton
Russia(7)：1715.8ton (+28.5ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(93)：2.1ton


XAG London Silver - 银价上破三角，延展进一步涨势

伦敦白银方面，银价在周一已突破缘自6月初高位的下降趋向线，亦即同时为三角型态的顶部，此前两周银价一直处于窄幅横盘，随着银价向上破位，料银价可进一步伸延近月的升势，下一级阻力将看至17.60and17.90美元，较大阻力则料为18.30美元。下方依据为起延至7month7日的上升趋向线，目前设立支撑于17.17美元，较大支撑在16.90USD.   

London Silver8month31day
Predicting early wave amplitude:17.10 – 17.60
Resistance level:17.90 – 18.30
Support bit:16.90 – 16.50
                                                      
iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
8month7Day - 10562.93ton
8month8Day - 10530.59ton
8month9Day - 10530.59ton
8month10Day - 10445.33ton
8month11Day - 10445.33ton
8month14Day - 10445.33ton
8month15Day - 10445.33ton
8month16Day - 10445.33ton
8month17Day - 10401.24ton
8month18Day - 10401.24ton
8month21Day - 10401.24ton
8month22Day - 10401.24ton
8month23Day - 10401.24ton
8month24Day - 10363.03ton
8month25Day - 10363.03ton
8month28Day - 10363.03ton
8month29Day - 10363.03ton
8month30Day - 10363.03ton


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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)