Crossing the Sea 2017year8month25day(Gold)

Crossing the Sea

2017

year

8

month

25

day

Focus this week:
8month25day(Friday)
U.S.A7Monthly rate of durable goods orders

8month28day(Monday)
U.S.A7Initial value of monthly commodity trade balance
U.S.A7月批发库存初值月率%
U.S.A8Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for the Month

8month29day(Tuesday)
U.S.A6monthCaseShiller 20个城市房价指数月率
U.S.A6monthCaseShillerHouse Price Index
U.S.A8Monthly Consumer Confidence Index

8month30day(Wednesday)
U.S.A8monthADPChanges in private employment positions
美国第二季商业获利初值
Season 2 in the United StatesGDPRevised month on month annual rate
美国第二季最终销售修订
美国第二季消费者支出修订
Season 2 in the United StatesGDP平减指数修订
Season 2 in the United StatesPCE物价指数修订

8month31day(Thursday)
U.S.A8monthChallengerNumber of layoffs planned by the company
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
U.S.A7月实质个人消费月率
U.S.A7Monthly personal income rate
U.S.A7月经季节调整个人支出月率
U.S.A7monthPCEprice index
U.S.A7Dallas Federal Reserve BankPCE
U.S.A8Month ChicagoPMI
U.S.A7Monthly Housing Pending Sales Index

9month1day(Friday)
U.S.A8Monthly non-agricultural employment positions
U.S.A8Monthly unemployment rate
U.S.A8Monthly average hourly rate
U.S.A8月劳动人口就业参与率
U.S.A8monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIFinal value
U.S.A7Monthly construction expenditure rate
U.S.A8monthISMmanufacturingPMI
U.S.A8Final Value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for the Month


Today's important economic data:   
16：00 Germany8monthIfoBusiness Prosperity Index‧forecast115.5‧Previous value116.0
16：00 Germany8monthIfoCurrent situation index‧forecast125.0‧Previous value125.4
16：00 Germany8monthIfoExpected index‧forecast106.8‧Previous value107.3
20：30 U.S.A7Monthly rate of durable goods orders‧forecast-6.0%‧Previous value+6.4%
20：30 U.S.A7Monthly rate of durable goods orders deducted from transportation‧forecast+0.4%‧Previous value+0.1%
20：30 U.S.A7Monthly deduction of durable goods orders for national defense‧Previous value+6.6%
20：30 U.S.A7Monthly deduction of non defense capital financial orders for aircraft‧forecast+0.3%‧Front value remains unchanged
23：00 Canada6Monthly budget‧Previous value3.1A deficit of one billion yuan
23：00 Canada6月财年迄今预算‧Previous value0.7Yiyi surplus




News of the Week
U.S.A7月新屋销售较前月下降9.4%，触及七个月最低
U.S.A7The annual sales rate of new houses per month is57.110000 households
U.S.A8monthMARKITcomprehensivePMIThe initial value is56.0
U.S.A8monthMARKITService industryPMIThe initial value is56.9, for2015year4The highest since the beginning of the month

Wednesday/ 特朗普称宁愿冒政府关门风险也要建边境墙
特朗普警告，可能终结同墨西哥和加拿大的NAFTA
惠誉：若政府举债上限不能提高，美国“AAA”评级将面临风险

Thursday/CNN：美国国会调查发现新电邮，涉及为特朗普助选人员与普京牵线

U.S.A7月成屋销售意外减少1.3%At an annual rate of54410000 households
美国一周初请失业金人数为23.4ten thousand people
美国一周初请失业金人数四周均值为23.8ten thousand people
美国一周续请失业金人数为195.4ten thousand people
U.S.A7月建筑许可由下滑4.1%修正为下滑3.5%，年率由122.3万户修正为12310000 households


8month24day
LondongoldMorning order price:1285.90
London gold afternoon fixing price:1289.00

Today's Introduction
U.S.A7月成屋销售意外下降1.3%，经季节调整后年率为544万户，这是2016year8月以来的最低水平，因库存长期短缺推高房价，这是楼市复苏势头放缓的最新迹象。楼市活动冷却，更多地反映出供应受限，而不是需求减少，因需求受到强劲劳动力市场的驱动。劳工部在另外一份报告中称，截至8month19During the current week, the number of new applicants for unemployment benefits increased2,000人，经季节调整为23.4万人。这已经是连续第129周初请失业金人数低于30万人的表明劳动力市场强劲的门坎，这是1970年以来的最长跨度，而当时的劳动力市场要小得多。

在美国怀俄明州杰克森霍尔召开的全球央行年会，美国联邦储备理事会(FED)主席耶伦今晚将发表演说，这可能是她最后一次参加该系列年会。但此时恰逢国会的财政争执、联邦债券出售以及对耶伦前途的疑虑隐现。耶伦计划在周五谈谈金融稳定性，但预计不会发出新的政策宣示。美国失业率处在16Annual low point4.3%，美联储今年已加息两次且没有惊扰市场。但财政挑战横在前面。评级机构惠誉周三表示，如果国会不能在9month29日的最后期限前上调20万亿美元的债务上限，可能会检视美国的债信评级。过了上述期限，美国联邦政府将面临违约风险。即便特朗普发出关停政府的威胁，但议员们还在努力达成预算协议，以防政府真的关门大吉。这些前景可能影响美联储缩减4.5万亿美元资产负债表的计划。美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)下月开会时，耶伦料宣布缩表计划。与此同时，耶伦能在任多久还不明朗。她的美联储主席任期将于明年2月届满。特朗普称，前高盛总裁、白宫国家经济委员会主任柯恩是接替耶伦的一个候选人。耶伦也有可能再次获得任命。美联储主席候选人通常在初秋宣布。另外，市场还将静观欧洲央行总裁德拉吉是否会就该行缩减刺激的时间给出更多信号。最近欧元上涨为缩减行动的时间带来更多不确定性。而日本鉴于国内经济改善，要求日本央行准备削减购债的呼声也日益升高。




XAU London Gold - 市场关注点转向全球央行年会

金价周五持稳，投资者静候今晚在美国杰克森霍尔召开的央行官员会议，以期从中找寻走势指引。金市跌幅受限，之前美国总统特朗普威胁称，宁愿冒政府停摆的风险，也要为修建美墨边境墙筹措资金。地缘政治风险通常会刺激对黄金等避险资产的买盘。

As shown in the chart, the gold price is4Month and6月未能突破今年的宽阔交易区间1,200-1,300美元。今年6month6日高位见于1296，再上一个高位见于4month17Of1295.42，故此，双底颈线位置1296这水平将颇为关键，若本周可企稳于颈线之上，金价可望再而冲高。预计向上延伸阻力可至1300and1307水平，进一步则会参考去年11Monthly high1337.40美元。下方支持料为1280and1273To the next level50The current position of the balance moving average1253USD.
      
London Gold8month25day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1280 - 1294
Resistance level:1301 - 1319
Support bit:1273 - 1266


SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
8month1Day - 791.88ton
8month2Day - 791.88ton
8month3Day - 791.88ton
8month4Day - 787.14ton
8month7Day - 786.87ton
8month8Day - 786.87ton
8month9Day - 786.87ton
8month10Day - 786.87ton
8month11Day - 786.87ton
8month14Day - 791.01ton
8month15Day - 791.01ton
8month16Day - 795.44ton
8month17Day - 795.44ton
8month18Day - 799.29ton
8month21Day - 799.29ton
8month22Day - 799.29ton
8month23Day - 799.29ton
8month24Day - 799.29ton


8Monthly goldfuturesDue date:8month29day
12Monthly goldoptionDue date:11month27day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Data source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2017year7month7day)

Global:33465.1 (+39.5ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3374.1ton (-3.2ton)
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.9ton
China(6)：1842.6ton
Russia(7)：1715.8ton (+28.5ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(93)：2.1ton




XAG London Silver - 银价三角争持待变

伦敦白银方面，目前白银走势正处于三角区间争持，并已进入末端区域，示意着银价即将会出现突破行情，下方依据为起延至7month7日的上升趋向线，目前设立支撑于16.90美元，若银价后市居于此区下方，料将迎来较大的调整压力。黄金比率计算，38.2%and50%The level of feedback is16.38and16.09Expand to61.8%Then it is15.80美元。另一方面，上方阻力则为缘自6月初高位的下降趋向线，阻力为17.12美元，倘若后市终可稳企此区上方，料银价可进一步伸延近月的升势，下一级阻力将看至17.30and17.60美元，较大阻力则料为18.00USD.  


London Silver8month25day
Predicting early wave amplitude:16.60 – 17.30
Resistance level:17.60 – 18.00
Support bit:16.30 – 15.80
                                                                    

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
8month7Day - 10562.93ton
8month8Day - 10530.59ton
8month9Day - 10530.59ton
8month10Day - 10445.33ton
8month11Day - 10445.33ton
8month14Day - 10445.33ton
8month15Day - 10445.33ton
8month16Day - 10445.33ton
8month17Day - 10401.24ton
8month18Day - 10401.24ton
8month21Day - 10401.24ton
8month22Day - 10401.24ton
8month23Day - 10401.24ton
8month24Day - 10363.03ton



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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)