Crossing the Sea 2017year8month21day (foreign exchange)

Crossing the Sea

2017

year

8

month

21

day (foreign exchange)

EUR euro - 欧洲央行担心市场动荡及欧元过度升值

欧洲央行周四公布的7month20日会议记录显示，央行决策者在会议上担心欧元汇率可能涨得过高，并警告称，不能将良好的融资环境视为当然，这个成果依赖于欧洲央行的宽松政策。决策者还称，欧洲央行购债计划的持续时间和速度不是调整立场的唯一可用杠杆，在“每个方向”都需要更多政策空间。由于央行决策官员担忧欧元汇率可能过高，导致欧元周四暴跌，触及三周低位1.1662，不过，随后欧元削减跌幅，因美元再度承压。技术走势而言，欧元兑美元过去两周大致处于1.17to1.19进行横盘，并交迭于短期平均线，RSI及随机指数处于反复，均表现着汇价之争持待变局面。下方底部1.1720Also25天平均线所在，倘若跌破此区，下延支持则看至1.16水平。以gold比率计算，50%and61.8%的调整水平将见于1.1510and1.1415。另一边厢，若果可向上突破区间顶部，下一个焦点则会是1.20关口，上一次持于此关口上方要追溯至2015year1月，若欧元可重回此区上方，技术面将巩固欧元的进一步强势。预估延伸较大阻力则在250Weekly moving average1.2050and1.2170Horizontal.

Focus:

8month22day(two): Germany8monthZEWEconomic Sentiment Index‧ZEWCurrent situation index

8month23day(three): France8monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value‧MarkitService industryPMIinitial value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value‧

Germany8monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value‧MarkitService industryPMIinitial value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value‧

eurozone8monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value‧MarkitService industryPMIinitial value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value

8month24day(four): France8Monthly Business Prosperity Index

8month25day(five): Germany Season 2GDP细节‧France8Monthly Consumer Confidence Index‧Germany8monthIfoBusiness Prosperity Index‧IfoCurrent situation index‧IfoExpected index

      

Estimated wave amplitude:

resistance 1.1900 – 1.2000 – 1.2060 – 1.2170

support 1.1700* – 1.1600 – 1.1510 – 1.1415

JPY yen - 避险情绪支撑日圆

美元兑日圆走势，图表所见，双顶型态的两个顶部分别为5month11Of114.36and7month11Of114.49，颈线位置即6month14day108.81，视为一个关键水平，至今重新回落并大有机会再挑战颈线支撑，倘若成功破位，下试目标预估可至108To the extent that107.20，关键直指105关口。上方阻力参考25The current position of the balance moving average110.65as well as112.20水平，较大阻力则留意114.50Horizontal.

Focus:

8month21day(one): Japan8Monthly Reuters Short term Manufacturing Prosperity Index

8month23day(three): Japan8Monthly and daily manufacturing industryPMI

8month24day(four): Japan invested in foreign bonds last week‧Last week, foreign investment in Japanese stocks

8month25day(five): Japan7Monthly National CoreCPIthe annual rate‧Nationwide as a wholeCPIthe annual rate‧Japan8Tokyo Regional CoreCPIthe annual rate‧Tokyo region as a wholeCPIthe annual rate

Estimated wave amplitude:

resistance 110.65 – 112.20 – 114.50*

support 108.80** – 108.00 – 107.20

GBP pound - 短线弱势依然

英镑兑美元走势，图表所见，英镑兑美元上周显著跌破上升趋向线，并横盘一周多时间后，于本周二更跌破50天平均线，估计后市若再而跌破7月险守着的1.28关口，料英镑将出现较具规模的调整。同时，MACD已初步跌破讯号线，亦反映着汇价作进一步下跌的机会较大。预计向下延伸支持料为250Balance moving average1.2650水平。另一方面，阻力可参考1.30and25Balance moving average1.3050水平，下一级料为1.3160。

Focus:

8month21day(one): UK7monthPSNB‧PSNCR

8month24day(four)：英国第二季GDP修订‧商业投资初值‧britain7monthUK FINANCENumber of approved mortgage loans‧britain8monthCBIRetail sales difference

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英国希望退欧后与欧盟订立临时性关税协议以及新的贸易协议

Estimated wave amplitude:

resistance 1.3000 – 1.3040 – 1.3160

support 1.2800 – 1.2650

CHF Swiss franc - 走低，因风险偏好回升

技术图表所见，若果以美元兑瑞郎近一轮的累计涨幅计算，50%and61.8%的回调水平将为0.9605and0.9565，较大支持则可会看至0.9430及以至参考2015year8Monthly low0.9251。至于上方阻力则预估为100Balance moving average0.9780and250Balance moving average0.99水平，关键指向1.00Gateway.

Focus:

8month22day(two)Switzerland7Monthly trade balance

8month24day(four)：瑞士第二季工业订单年率

      

Estimated wave amplitude:

resistance 0.9780 – 0.9990* – 1.0000**

support 0.9605 – 0.9565 – 0.9430 – 0.9251

AUD AUD - 短线有望重新喘稳

澳元兑美元走势，自2016年第三季至今，澳元走势勾划出一组头肩底形态，颈线位置在0.7780，只要汇价持稳于此区上方，澳元料仍可保持上涨势头，而周二低位则仅仅居于此区之上的0.7808。若然以右肩的深度450点计算，向上延伸目标可看至0.8230；以头形的幅度620Point calculation, mid-term goals will point towards0.84Horizontal. As for the current resistance in close proximity, attention can be paid to it0.7890and0.80Pass, the next level is visible50Monthly average line0.8050。相对强弱指标及随机指数已自超卖区初步出现回升迹象，示意澳元短期或先作持稳。反之，汇价若跌破此区，澳元短期仍会延续调整态势。以去年十二月低位0.7160起始的累计涨幅计算，38.2%and50%的回调水平为0.7720and0.7610Expand to61.8%by0.7505。

Estimated wave amplitude:

resistance 0.7890 – 0.8000 – 0.8050 – 0.8230

support 0.7780 – 0.7720 – 0.7610

NZD New Zealand dollars - 美元承压，市场质疑特朗普政府推行政策议程能力

图表所见，下方支持预估于0.7260The key is250Balance moving average0.7140To the extent that0.70Gateway. If calculated based on the cumulative increase since May,38.2%and50%The level of feedback will be observed separately0.7270and0.7190Horizontal, extended to61.8%Then in the0.71. On the other hand, the resistance above focuses on100Monthly average line0.7570If it can break through and rise, the next target will see0.7745and0.78Horizontal.

Focus:

8month24day(four): New Zealand7Monthly imports‧Export‧trade balance‧by7月的一年贸易平衡

Estimated wave amplitude:

resistance 0.7500 – 0.7550 – 0.7745

support 0.7130 – 0.7000 – 0.6800/40

CAD Cad - 止跌回稳

美元兑加元方面，过去两个月汇价一路下滑，直至七月底似乎在1.24止住了跌势。上方阻力回看1.28and50Balance moving average1.29Horizontal. Calculated by the golden ratio,38.2%的反弹幅度见于1.2940Horizontal, extended to50%Then it is1.31。若果后市下破1.24这个当前的关键水平，预料延伸跌幅可会看至1.2175To the extent that1.20关口，进一步则会参考2015year5Monthly low1.1916。

Focus:

8month18day(five): Canada7monthCPI‧Central Bank CoreCPI

8month21day(one): Canada6Monthly wholesale trade rate

8month22day(two): Canada6Monthly retail sales rate‧Deducting the monthly retail sales rate of automobiles

Estimated wave amplitude:

resistance 1.2720 – 1.2940

support 1.2400* – 1.2175 – 1.2000

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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department

(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)