Crossing the Sea 2017year 8month16day(Gold)

Crossing the Sea

2017

year

8

month

16

day

Focus this week:
8month16day(Wednesday)
Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Market Index
Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Refinancing Index
U.S.A7Monthly Building Permit
U.S.A7Monthly housing construction starts

8month17day(Thursday)
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
Four week average in the United States
Number of Americans reapplying for unemployment benefits
U.S.A8Monthly Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index
U.S.A7Monthly industrial production rate
U.S.A7Monthly capacity utilization rate
U.S.A7Monthly manufacturing output rate
U.S.A7Monthly leading indicator monthly rate

8month18day(Friday)
U.S.A8Initial monthly University of Michigan consumer confidence index
U.S.A8月密歇根大学现况指数初值
U.S.A8月密歇根大学预期指数初值



Today's important economic data:
17：00 欧元区第二季国内生产总值(GDP)季率二次初估值‧forecast+0.6%‧Previous value+0.6%
17：00 欧元区第二季国内生产总值(GDP)年率二次初估值‧forecast+2.1%‧Previous value+2.1%
19：00 Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Market Index‧Previous value418.7
19：00 Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Refinancing Index‧Previous value1,433.2
20：30 U.S.A7Monthly building permit annual rate‧forecast125.010000 households‧Previous value127.510000 households
20：30 U.S.A7Monthly building permit rate‧Previous value+9.2%
20：30 U.S.A7Monthly housing construction annual rate‧forecast122.010000 households‧Previous value121.510000 households
20：30 U.S.A7月房屋开工月率‧Previous value+8.3%

8month17day (Thursday)
02：00 美联储联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)Meeting minutes


News of the Week
周一：纽约联储总裁杜德利预计美联储今年将再升息

周二：金正恩称作出决定前将继续观察美国行动
韩国总统文在寅称，韩国政府将尽一切手段阻止战争
China6月超越日本重新成为美国公债最大持有国

U.S.A6Monthly overall net capital inflow77USD100mn
U.S.A8monthNAHBThe housing market index is68
U.S.A6Monthly enterprise inventory increased compared to the previous month0.5%
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, USA8The monthly manufacturing index is+25.20
U.S.A7月出口物价较前月上升0.4%
U.S.A7Monthly import prices have increased compared to the previous month0.1%
U.S.A7Monthly deduction of retail sales of automobiles increased compared to the previous month0.5%
U.S.A7Monthly retail sales increased compared to the previous month0.6%



8month15day
LondongoldMorning order price:1274.60
London gold afternoon fixing price:1270.30


Today's Introduction
U.S.A7月零售销售强劲，提亮第三季经济增长前景

美国商务部公布，7月美国零售销售较前月跃升0.6%, for2016year12月以来最大升幅，因消费者增加机动车购买，并提高非必需性支出，说明第三季初经济势头继续增强。经济分析师此前预计7月零售销售增加0.4%。5Month and6月零售销售也分别从下滑0.1%and0.2%，上修为持平和增长0.3%。零售销售报告有助于转移投资者对近期疲弱的通胀数据的关注，应能缓解对消费者支出的担忧，让美联储迈向12月再次升息。美元指数周二升至三周高位附近。周二纽约联储的另一份报告显示，8月纽约州制造业指数上升15.4Point, to25.2，为近三年来最高。该区域制造业报告新订单跳增，并表示出货时间拉长。第三份来自商务部的报告显示，6月企业库存创七个月来最大增幅，在销售增加下，库存积累显然早在规画当中。



XAU London Gold - 避险情绪稍缓，金价走势承压

避险情绪减弱，促使金价本周初大致承压。据北韩官方媒体周二报导，朝鲜领导人已推迟向美国领土关岛发射导弹的决定，他要再观察美国行动一段时间；美方曾警告称，将会把任何飞往这个太平洋岛屿的导弹予以拦截。美国零售数据表现强劲则支撑美元，并对金价造成进一步压力。美国7月零售销售录得七个月来最大增幅，因消费者增加机动车购买，并提高非必需性支出，说明第三季初经济势头继续增强。零售销售数据公布后，亚特兰大联储将美国第三季成长年率预估上调至3.7%。投资者静待美国联邦储备理事会(FED)publish7月会议的会议纪录，以找寻可能升息步伐的线索。此外，金融市场关注将在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔召开的全球央行年会，期待从中找到货币政策走向的线索。

图表走势所见，始于7month10Daily low1204.45美元的此轮升势，暂见最高见于8month11Of1291.86美元，接近于6month6Daily high1296的这个双底颈线位置，而未有破位下，过去两天见明显回挫。RSI及随机指数已从超买区域回落，示意金价处弱势调整。以黄金比率计算，38.2%and50%的调整水平为1258and1248Horizontal,61.8%则会看至1238. Additionally,50The current position of the balance moving average1251亦是一重要参考；较近支持可留意1270水平。预计向上阻力在1279and1288，关键仍会回看1296Horizontal.

       
London Gold8month16day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1263 - 1279
Resistance level:1288 - 1303
Support bit:1258 - 1243


SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
7month17Day - 827.07ton
7month18Day - 821.45ton
7month19Day - 816.13ton
7month20Day - 816.13ton
7month21Day - 813.76ton
7month24Day - 809.62ton
7month25Day - 800.45ton
7month26Day - 795.42ton
7month27Day - 791.88ton
7month28Day - 791.88ton
7month31Day - 791.88ton
8month1Day - 791.88ton
8month2Day - 791.88ton
8month3Day - 791.88ton
8month4Day - 787.14ton
8month7Day - 786.87ton
8month8Day - 786.87ton
8month9Day - 786.87ton
8month10Day - 786.87ton
8month11Day - 786.87ton
8month14Day - 791.01ton
8month15Day - 791.01ton

8Monthly goldfuturesDue date:8month29day
12Monthly goldoptionDue date:11month27day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Data source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2017year7month7day)

Global:33465.1 (+39.5ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3374.1ton (-3.2ton)
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.9ton
China(6)：1842.6ton
Russia(7)：1715.8ton (+28.5ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(93)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver-银价下探趋向线支撑

伦敦白银方面，过去三日在17.25水平附近遇阻，至今已告挫跌远离此区域；同时相对强弱指数及随机指数均见回落，若再而跌破上升趋向线支撑16.53，估计银价会重陷调整。以自七月的累积涨幅计算，38.2%and50%的调整水平为16.32and16.04USD, extended to61.8%Then in the15.76。至于向上阻力预估在16.90The key can be found in17.25美元，倘若后市终可突破此区，料银价可进一步伸延近月的升势，较大阻力将看至17.80USD.   
                 
London Silver8month16day
Predicting early wave amplitude:16.30 – 16.90
Resistance level:17.30 – 17.80
Support bit:16.10 – 15.60
                                                                 

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
7month24Day - 10752.56ton
7month25Day - 10693.75ton
7month26Day - 10693.75ton
7month27Day - 10693.75ton
7month28Day - 10658.47ton
7month31Day - 10629.07ton
8month1Day - 10629.07ton
8month2Day - 10592.33ton
8month3Day - 10592.33ton
8month4Day - 10562.93ton
8month7Day - 10562.93ton
8month8Day - 10530.59ton
8month9Day - 10530.59ton
8month10Day - 10445.33ton
8month11Day - 10445.33ton
8month14Day - 10445.33ton
8month15day - 791.01ton





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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)