Crossing the Sea8month14day (外匯)

Crossing the Sea

8

month

14

day

EUR euro - 续作调整

since2015year1月至今，欧元走出了一组三底型态，因此欧元后市若仍可稳企于1.17水平颈线上方，技术面将巩固欧元的进一步强势。下一级阻力预料为1.19The key will directly point to1.20关口。预估延伸较大阻力则在250Weekly moving average1.2060and1.2170水平。然而，相对强弱指标及随机指数已自超买区域呈初步回落，需留意汇价在未能进一步闯过1.20关口的情况下，或会先作出回调盘整。若果以6month20Daily low1.1117至本轮涨势的暂见高位1.1909Calculate the cumulative increase in price,38.2%and50%The callback amplitude is1.1600and1.1510Horizontal.

Focus:
8month14day(one): Eurozone6Monthly industrial production
8month15day(two): Germany Season 2GDPinitial value
8month16day(three)：意大利第二季GDPinitial value‧Eurozone Q2GDP季率二次初估值
8month17day(four)：法国第二季按ILOStandard calculated unemployment rate‧Germany7Monthly wholesale price index‧eurozone6Monthly trade balance‧eurozone7monthHICPFinal value‧Deducting food and energy expensesHICPFinal value
8month18day(five): Germany7monthPPI‧eurozone6Monthly current account
      
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.1900 – 1.2000 – 1.2060 – 1.2170
support 1.1700 – 1.1600 – 1.1510



JPY yen - 受避险情绪支撑

美国总统特朗普上周二突然警告朝鲜不要威胁美国，否则将“招致世上前所未见的火与怒”；其后，不甘示弱的朝鲜称特朗普的警告是“一堆废话”，扬言将以导弹打击关岛并详述计划细节，刺激特朗普提高调门警告朝鲜不要轻举妄动。半岛紧张局势趋于白热化，投资者纷纷寻求避险，推动日圆大涨。特朗普周四提高了抨击朝鲜及其领导人的声调，警告朝鲜不要袭击关岛或美国盟友。此前朝鲜透露打算发射导弹飞越日本领空，并射入关岛附近海域。朝中社称，朝鲜军方将在8月中之前完成制定发射四枚中程导弹飞越日本、落入关岛附近海域的计划，之后将等待金正恩的指令。美国和韩国的专家称，朝鲜打击关岛的计划急剧抬升了风险，因为美国可能将任何瞄准其领土的导弹均视为挑衅，即便只是试射而已。中国方面，官方报纸环球时报周五报导称，如果朝鲜主动发射威胁美国领土的导弹，并招来报复，中方将保持中立；这似乎是对朝鲜计划以导弹打击美国太平洋领地关岛发出警告。

美元兑日圆方面，美国和朝鲜之间的紧张局势升级促使更多的投资者转向避险资产。美元兑日圆一度跌至108.73, for4month20日以来最低水平。技术图表所见，相对强弱指标及随机指数仍处下行，示意汇价尚处弱势。双顶型态走势仍是清晰体现着，两个顶部分别为5month11Of114.36and7month11Of114.49, failed to break through114.50的阻力下，过去一个月汇价维持下行。双顶型态的颈线位置即6month14day108.81，视为一个关键水平，破位延伸下试目标预估可至为108To the extent that107.20，关键直指105关口。向上较近阻力则参考25Balance moving average111.35and113.60水平。较大阻力则留意114.50Horizontal,0Horizontal, for closer resistance, refer to25Balance moving average111.80and113.60Horizontal.

Focus:
8month14day(one): Japan Season 2GDPSeasonal rate‧GDPMonth on month annual rate
8month15day(two): Japan6月工业生产月率修订‧产能利用率指数月率修订
8month17day(four): Japan invested in foreign bonds last week‧Last week, foreign investment in Japanese stocks‧Japan7Monthly trade balance‧Annual export rate‧Annual import rate

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 111.80 – 113.60 – 114.50*
support 109.80 – 108.80 – 108.00



GBP pound - 掉头回落，短线弱势依然

图表走势所见，近月英镑兑美元持续反复上扬，并形成了一道上升趋向线，至今位于1.3070水平，技术上需慎防若本周明确失守此区，料英镑将出现较具规模的调整。同时，MACD已初步跌破讯号线，反映汇价作进一步下跌的机会较。向下延伸支持将参考50The current position of the balance moving average1.2920and1.28水平。反之，若可企稳趋向线上方并继续冲高，以去年6month24Daily high1.5018to10month7Daily low1.1450accumulate3568Calculation of point drop,50%The rebound level is1.3230Expand to61.8%Then it is1.3655. Other resistance can be referred to1.35Horizontal.

Focus:
8month15day(two): UK7monthCPI‧coreCPI‧RPI‧扣除抵押贷款的RPI‧PPIInput price‧PPIOutput price‧PPI核心产出物价
8month16day(three): UK7Annual rate of monthly average weekly salary income‧请领失业金人数‧UK as of6月三个月按ILOStandard calculated unemployment rate
8month17day(four): UK7Monthly retail sales‧Retail sales excluding energy

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3070 – 1.3230 – 1.3500 – 1.3655
support 1.2920 – 1.2800 – 1.2720



CHF Swiss franc - 北韩局势升温，追捧避险货币

美元兑瑞郎周二曾升见至0.9772的两个月高位，但周三的下挫扭转了过去两周持续反弹的路径，并促使RSI及随机指数掉头回落，预示美元仍有机会延伸跌势。若果以近一轮的累计涨幅计算，50%and61.8%的回调水平将为0.9605and0.9565，较大支持则可会看至0.9430及以至参考2015year8Monthly low0.9251。至于上方阻力则为0.9720and0.9810To the next level250Balance moving average0.99Horizontal.

Focus:
8month15day(two)Switzerland7Monthly Producer/Import prices

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.9720 – 0.9810 – 0.9900*
support 0.9605 – 0.9565 – 0.9430 – 0.9251



AUD AUD - 风险货币承压，澳元弱势调整

澳元兑美元走势，自2016年第三季至今，澳元走势勾划出一组头肩底形态，颈线位置在0.7780，只要汇价持稳于此区上方，澳元料仍可保持上涨势头。以右肩的深度450Point calculation, technology extension goals can be seen0.8230; If the amplitude of the head shape620Point calculation, mid-term goals will point towards0.84Horizontal. As for the current resistance in close proximity, attention can be paid to it50Monthly average line0.8050。然而，鉴于相对强弱指标及随机指数已呈下滑，汇价当前更迫近0.7780这个关键支撑，估计后市若跌破此区，澳元短期仍会维持调整态势。若以去年十二月低位0.7160起始的累计涨幅计算，38.2%and50%的回调水平为0.7720and0.7610Expand to61.8%by0.7505。

Focus:
8month15day(two): Australia7月新车销量
8month16day(three)Australian Q2 Salary Price Index
8month17day(four): Australia7月就业人口‧全职就业人口‧Employment participation rate‧unemployment rate

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.8000 – 0.8070 – 0.8230
support 0.7800 – 0.7720 – 0.7640



NZD New Zealand dollars - 地缘政治风险加剧，商品货币承压

纽元周五连续第三日走低，因朝鲜紧张局势促使投资者买进日圆和瑞郎等避险资产。图表所见，相对强弱指标及随机指数均已告回挫，同时MACDThe pointer has also fallen the signal line, and it is estimated that the New Zealand dollar is beginning to experience a correction correction correction against the US dollar. Below is an estimate supported by0.7260The key is250Balance moving average0.7140To the extent that0.70Gateway. If calculated based on the cumulative increase since May,38.2%and50%The level of feedback will be observed separately0.7270and0.7190Horizontal, extended to61.8%Then in the0.71. On the other hand, the resistance above focuses on100Monthly average line0.7570If it can break through and rise, the next target will see0.7745and0.78Horizontal.

Focus:
8month14day(one)：新西兰第二季零售销售量
8month16day(three): New Zealand7月外资持有新西兰公债比例
8month17day(four): New Zealand Season 2PPIInput index‧PPIOutput index
      
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7500 – 0.7550 – 0.7745
support 0.7130 – 0.7000 – 0.6800/40



CAD Cad - 破位不果陷回调

美元兑加元走势，过去两个月汇价一路下滑，直至近日似乎在1.24止住了跌势，而RSI及随机指数亦已见有回升迹象；故此短线汇价或可望先作回稳，上方阻力回看1.2590and25Balance moving average1.2720. withgold比率计算，38.2%的反弹幅度见于1.2940水平。反之，若果后市下破1.24这个当前的关键水平，预料延伸跌幅可会看至1.2175To the extent that1.20关口，进一步则会参考2015year5Monthly low1.1916。

Focus:
8month17day(four): Canada6Monthly manufacturing sales rate
8month18day(five): Canada7monthCPI‧Central Bank CoreCPI

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2590 – 1.2720 – 1.2940
support 1.2400* – 1.2175 – 1.2000


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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)