Crossing the Sea8month14day (Gold)

Crossing the Sea

8

month

14

day

Focus this week:
8month15day(Tuesday)
U.S.A8New York Fed Manufacturing Index for the Month
U.S.A7Monthly import price rate
U.S.A7月出口物价月率
U.S.A7Monthly retail sales rate
U.S.A6Monthly commercial inventory rate
United States8monthNAHBHousing market index

8month16day(Wednesday)
U.S.A6Monthly overall net capital flow
U.S.A6月外国购买美国公债
Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Market Index
Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Refinancing Index
U.S.A7Monthly Building Permit
U.S.A7Monthly housing construction starts

8month17day(Thursday)
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
Four week average in the United States
Number of Americans reapplying for unemployment benefits
U.S.A8Monthly Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index
U.S.A7Monthly industrial production rate
U.S.A7Monthly capacity utilization rate
U.S.A7Monthly manufacturing output rate
U.S.A7Monthly leading indicator monthly rate

8month18day(Friday)
U.S.A8Initial monthly University of Michigan consumer confidence index
U.S.A8月密歇根大学现况指数初值
U.S.A8月密歇根大学预期指数初值


8month11day
LondongoldMorning order price:1288.30
London gold afternoon fixing price:1286.10



XAU London Gold - 避险情绪持续，金价仍受追捧

美国总统特朗普上周对朝鲜发出“火与怒”的警告，招来朝鲜扬言将以导弹打击关岛。金融市场惴惴不安，避险资产全线大涨。特朗普周二突然警告朝鲜不要威胁美国，否则将“招致世上前所未见的火与怒”；其后，不甘示弱的朝鲜称特朗普的警告是“一堆废话”，扬言将以导弹打击关岛并详述计划细节，刺激特朗普提高调门警告朝鲜不要轻举妄动。半岛紧张局势趋于白热化，投资者纷纷寻求避险，推动金价大涨。特朗普周四提高了抨击朝鲜及其领导人的声调，警告朝鲜不要袭击关岛或美国盟友。美国和韩国的专家称，朝鲜打击关岛的计划急剧抬升了风险，因为美国可能将任何瞄准其领土的导弹均视为挑衅，即便只是试射而已。中国方面，官方报纸环球时报周五报导称，如果朝鲜主动发射威胁美国领土的导弹，并招来报复，中方将保持中立；这似乎是对朝鲜计划以导弹打击美国太平洋领地关岛发出警告。

美国劳工部周五公布，美国7Monthly Consumer Price Index(CPI)Up from the previous month0.1%, up from the same period last year1.7%； coreCPIUp from the previous month0.1%, up from the same period last year1.7%。尽管劳动市场接近充份就业，但通胀仍然温和，这是美联储在考虑进一步收紧货币政策时遇到的一个难题。本周的重头戏料是美联储的7月政策会议记录，投资者可从中一窥美联储缩表计划的线索。另有多位联储官员本周将出席活动。此外澳洲央行也将公布8月会议记录。数据方面可重点关注日本和欧元区GDP，以及英国CPIandPPIEurozoneHICP等通胀数据。

伦敦黄金上周备受追捧，金价周五再创逾两个月高位至1291.86美元。美国与朝鲜之间的紧张局势升温激发避险买盘；地缘政治风险会提振黄金等被视为避险投资目标资产的需求。图表走势所见，金价于上周初止住跌势于50天平均线，并随着RSI及随机指数回弹，支撑金价的反扑势头。预计向上阻力将瞩目于6month6Daily high1296，此区可视为双底型态的颈线位置，倘若后市破位，将有望延伸更显著的上升动力，下一级将参考1300and1312美元。另外，若果以2012year10月高位至2015年年底低位的累计跌幅计算，38.2%The rebound level is1332美元。另一方面，下方支撑回看1278and1269，50The current position of the balance moving average1251则为另一参考。

London Gold8month14 day – 8month18Daily predicted wave amplitude:
Resistance level:1294 – 1309 – 1321 – 1341/1363
Support bit:1279 – 1273 – 1266 – 1238/1217

London Gold8month14day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1276 – 1299
Resistance level:1309 – 1321
Support bit:1265 – 1252

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
7month17Day - 827.07ton
7month18Day - 821.45ton
7month19Day - 816.13ton
7month20Day - 816.13ton
7month21Day - 813.76ton
7month24Day - 809.62ton
7month25Day - 800.45ton
7month26Day - 795.42ton
7month27Day - 791.88ton
7month28Day - 791.88ton
7month31Day - 791.88ton
8month1Day - 791.88ton
8month2Day - 791.88ton
8month3Day - 791.88ton
8month4Day - 787.14ton
8month7Day - 786.87ton
8month8Day - 786.87ton
8month9Day - 786.87ton
8month10Day - 786.87ton
8month11Day - 786.87ton

8Monthly goldfuturesDue date:8month29day
8Monthly goldoptionDue date:7month26day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Data source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2017year6month5day)

Global:33425.6 (+50.7ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3377.3ton (-0.6ton)
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.9ton
China(6)：1842.6ton
Russia(7)：1687.3ton (+7.2ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 银价止跌回稳

伦敦白银方面，同样相对强弱指数及随机指数均见回升，银价或尚见反扑倾向。预计下方支持为16.60and16.20The key is to explore the US dollar15.70美元。至于向上阻力预估17.50and18.00Next level can be seen in18.40USD.

London Silver8month14day – 8month18Daily predicted wave amplitude:
Resistance level:17.71 – 18.11 – 18.60 – 19.20
Support bit:16.80 – 16.40 – 15.60 – 15.15

London Silver8month14day
Predicting early wave amplitude:16.70 – 17.40
Resistance level:17.71 – 18.00
Support bit:16.40 – 15.70


iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
7month24Day - 10752.56ton
7month25Day - 10693.75ton
7month26Day - 10693.75ton
7month27Day - 10693.75ton
7month28Day - 10658.47ton
7month31Day - 10629.07ton
8month1Day - 10629.07ton
8month2Day - 10592.33ton
8month3Day - 10592.33ton
8month4Day - 10562.93ton
8month7Day - 10562.93ton
8month8Day - 10530.59ton
8month9Day - 10530.59ton
8month10Day - 10445.33ton
8month11Day - 10445.33ton


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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)