Suye Lunjin:7.29（周评）剑指千三关，黄金本周总结及下周展望

　　忙碌一周的投资市场结束了，夜深了，人静了，可想而知有人欢喜有人愁。在恭喜在市场上大有收获的那些人的同时，希望那些没有取得良好成果的投资者也不要灰心丧气。与其捶足顿胸不如好好反思一下自己在市场上失利的原因，只有不断找出自身的不足才能够不断进步，没有人天生就是站在高峰上，每个人都是经历了无数的挫折才能够成功，想成为一个成功的投资者也是一样的道理，反思不足，虚心学习，才能够不断进步。在投资市场并不是谁胜谁负，而是看谁能够走的更长远，只有沉浸其中才能看透这个投资市场的本质，犹豫不决和刚愎自用是投资心态最大的错误。
　　
This weekgold行情上总结：
　　
The strong trend at the beginning of the week, the pullback in the middle of the week, and the sharp rise at the end of the week have led to a pattern of first rising, then falling, and then rising again for gold this week. The strong upward trend on Friday has pushed the development of the gold market this week to a climax, closing at1270附近。笔者在上周周评中就指出黄金将会在1260上方附近承压回撤，加之多头过度上涨所消耗掉的势能足以让空头展开一波有力度的回撤，正如我所预期那样，黄金在周中触及本周最低的1244Nearby. Although another wave is approaching10美元的下跌，但是笔者苏野依旧看好黄金上涨的趋势，果不其然在周四就出现了转折，转折点出现在美联储利率决议，周四凌晨决议使得美元暴跌，黄金顺势上涨，将黄金的多头之势继续推向更高的位置。之后黄金企稳在1260Nearby, although there has been a short-term pullback, it still cannot suppress the strong bullish trend of gold. The actual US Q2 released on Friday eveningGDPAlthough the annualized quarterly rate was announced to be the same as expected, the US dollar continued to decline in the short term due to the influence of the Federal Reserve Congress, while gold slightly rose, touching the highest point of the week1270。
　　
Although gold has shown strong performance this week, it is not ruled out that gold will experience a significant pullback next week, as the US dollar index has fallen to its lowest point in nearly a year, and next week will usher in8月非农报告，笔者苏野认为，如果下周非农延续本月的大幅增长的表现，金价的上涨趋势有被重挫的风险，很可能会失守1260The US dollar level, even1240US dollars. Of course, if the non farm performance is weak or worse than expected, it will greatly stimulate bullish sentiment in the financial market, and gold prices are likely to be impacted1280By doing so, gold is expected to challenge itself once again1300Gateway.
　　
For1300Da Guan, gold has experienced two shocks since the beginning of this year1300The opportunity to pass the level, once in a while4In mid month, once at6At the beginning of the month, both were before and after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, indicating that the Fed had a huge impact on the trend of gold. In the first half of this year, the Fed also completed two interest rate hikes, which may have led to two shocks1300The root cause of failure, and the most likely reason for raising interest rates in the second half of the year now is12Month, and9The monthly balance sheet also faces this huge challenge, and without the obstacle of interest rate hikes, the gold price has broken through this time1260The US dollar seems to have already been seen1300的终点，在这最后一段冲刺道路上，基本已经没有什么阻碍。从长线来看，苏野认为这一次多头行情，或许就是最有可能冲破1300The timing of the big challenge.
　　
　　黄金技术面解析下周行情：

　　

　　从黄金的月线来看黄金1月份长阳，二月份长阳打开短期上涨的动力，但之后黄金延续盘整，多空胶着，黄金已经进入多空分岐较大，有看涨有看跌，正是此时才是最关健的时刻，对，黄金目前就是走入选择的境地，行情就是在多空分岐中杀出一条自己的路，从大周期来看，黄金1920的下跌结构仍是存在，高点1920-1796-1433-1392-1375-1296能否层层压制，而对于多头而言，下方1046-1122-1204能否成为多头崛起的暴发点，对于七月份仍是关健，七月份还有最后一个交易日就收线，七月份开盘价1242As of now, the lowest price1204, highest price1271Nearby, current quotation1269From the current perspective, the possibility of a bullish candlestick with a bottoming out of the golden monthly line is amplified, and the downward trend of the monthly line is suppressed1268On the front line, while paying attention to monthly consolidation5Breakthrough at the top of the month interval, once the downward trend line and consolidation occur5The monthly range has been broken through, and the future market is expected to follow a bullish trend at the monthly level. At the same time, once it effectively stabilizes1268Breakthrough in the future trend of gold1296，1330The possibility will increase.

　　

　　从周线图来看：黄金自1920见顶出现三个五浪的结构下跌至1046宣告下跌告一段落，之后迎来多头的一地财富，苏野再次不负众望，成功的1050布局做多，1130美联储加息布局做多的机会到达我们预期1282目标，本次黄金反弹至1296一线，此位是2011year1920-1796-1375的压制位1296下跌，此位将构成1920下跌的趋势线，苏野1294做空下看，直至打到前期起动点1215平台后收于上方，黄金近期保持震荡，与2016year3Month to6月份的盘整区间，周线来看与前期上涨中继续保持对称形态，区间在1214-1296内波动。目前黄金周线保持1296-1214-1204区间内波动，从1122上涨以来，与1046有望构筑W底的格局，目前黄金突破10周均线，站稳30Weekly moving average1239支撑，及中长期1223支撑，而且压制前期下行的下降趋势线已经被突破，同时本周周线收阳，上破60Weekly moving average1257，并且站稳1257-1264，下周有望向1281-1296进攻。

　　

　　从日线图来看：黄金从1123上涨，构筑圆弧底上攻，回踩颈线位1191上涨，拉高至2011下跌的高点压制，黄金最高触及1375一线下跌至颈线上涨，突破趋势线的位置确认，再次展开新一轮上涨，黄金自1122上涨拉了三波后调整，黄金下探1214-1204位置上攻，黄金上方高点1375-1337-1296下跌，下方1046-1122-1204构成支撑上攻，日线站在短中长期均线上方，周五收大阳线，并突破日线图关键阻力区域1258-1264，黄金有望继续上攻。
　　
From4Looking at the hourly chart, gold breaks through key resistance areas1258-1264，打开上方空间，均线发散，同时布林带发散开口向上，并且突破前期的高点，但是目前价格位于布林带上轨附近，指标RSI处于高位，Stoch指标中部区域金叉向上，有继续上攻的需求，但是即将运行在高位，一旦死叉有回调风险，由此可以看出黄金多头趋势延续，但是短线有回调修正的需要；从1Looking at the hourly chart, the price is on the upper track of the Bollinger Bands, while the high level view shows a sharp dropKLine shape,RSI指标高位拐头向下，同时Stoch指标高位死叉，短线有回调修正的需要，下周下方关注1260Support from above, pay attention to1296The pressure level.
　　
Overall, the weekly chart closed with a bullish candlestick for three consecutive weeks, forming a bullish trend. On Friday, the daily chart continued to close with a bullish candlestick, and the bullish strength strengthened;4In the hourly chart,1264The high point in the early stage of the first line was broken through, and the bullish trend continued. The moving average began to diverge, while the standard bullish line hit upwards one by one, breaking through key areas of the daily chart1258-1264The upper space is opened, and the bulls have strong power; Comprehensive weekly, daily4小时线来看，下周有望延续多头趋势，继续上攻，下周下方关注1260Strong support on the front line, with attention from above1296一线压力位，下周周初操作回落逢低多。
　　
Wen/Su Ye's Discussion on Gold reform lxr1489