Xu Jingzhong:7.28The US dollar is facing difficulties on all sides, and London gold continues to fall much lower as it rebounds

Message surface:


  7month27On the same day, the United States released initial application data. Specific data shows that the United States7month22The previous value of the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week is23.3Ten thousand people, expected value is24Ten thousand people, the published value is24.4Ten thousand people. Positive due to higher than expected data resultsgold. After the data was released, the spot gold price rose in the short term and then slightly declined. It is believed that the weak performance of initial application data has amplified the dovish influence of the Federal Reserve, intensified market skepticism about the US economic recovery, and simplified the bearish impact of balance sheet tightening while suppressing expectations of interest rate hikes. After all, from the current situation, the Federal Reserve wants to9It's difficult to raise interest rates every month, and even plans to raise rates again within the year have to be put under a big question mark. From the trend of the US dollar index, it can be seen that the US dollar is rapidly approaching a "life or death" level. If the US dollar continues to fall to92.60-93.15Below the interval level, there will be a huge downward space for the US dollar index. The US dollar index has been declining since the day93.152Rebound, current report93.924. according toCMEFederal Reserve observation, currently the Federal Reserve9Monthly interest rate increase25Bps to1.25[%]-1.5[%]The probability of the interval is8.2[%]，12The probability of monthly interest rate hikes reaching this range is45.1[%]It is expected that inflation will continue to be lower than2[%]. In addition to the current Trump Russia scandal and his healthcare reform plan still receiving attention, the uncertainty of the political situation, and the market's risk aversion sentiment will continue to heat up.


Analysis of Gold Technology:
  From the trend of gold, the rebound at the beginning of the week was hindered, and it fell under pressure. Currently, with the support of fundamentals, it has broken through the deadlock, breaking through previous highs in one fell swoop, forming a bullish trend in the short term, and maintaining high consolidation. YesterdayKCollect the Dayang line and collect it at1260Above, the bullish performance is too strong, emphasizing the previous band that has been emphasized this time1296-1204Rebound61.8The location of the1261That is to say, if gold stabilizes at this position, it will further rise. Yesterday, the overall white market was at1261Above consolidation, in the late trading session, with positive unemployment benefits data, gold once again began to rise, extending the bullish trend. Afterwards, it plummeted rapidly to1255On the front line of the US dollar, gold has fallen slightly; The hour line is currently forming a consolidation band, constrained by the upper part1268Short term pressure level, affected below1252The support has slowed down the short-term decline. Gold has recently hit the Bollinger Bands and shown a pullback. On Wednesday, it1250The lower part continued to fluctuate, but was affected by the news on Thursday morning, resulting inMACDas well asKDJDouble inverted upwards, now in1260Maintain oscillation,KThe current scene of a golden cross in the line is slightly enhanced by the red kinetic energy column; Opening up for four hours, the price of gold has been consistently on the Bollinger Bands with signs of breaking, and there has been a significant upward trend among bulls, as shown in the attached imageMACDThe formation of a double line shows an upward trend of intersection, with the kinetic energy column changing from green to red,KDJandRSIThe policy is upward, and in summary, gold will still have an upward trend todayDKR188But considering the impact of the news, can gold stabilize today1265Very important. From Thursday's market situation, gold broke through on Thursday1260Unable to stabilize after the checkpoint, but the highest price1264.99Still above yesterday's high point, the upward momentum has not dissipated yet. Therefore, today's strategy is still recommended to focus on a much lower level!


Gold operation suggestions:


  Strategy 1: Fall back to1256-1258Multiple orders entering nearby, stop loss4USD, target1262-1265Near.
  Strategy 2: First time meeting1268-1270Nearby empty orders enter, stop loss4USD, target1262-1260Near.


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  This article is from "Xu Jingzhong", a nationally certified gold analyst. Welcome to add "Xu Jingzhong":xujingzhong
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