王牌精英讲堂——如何判断外汇市场的趋势？

Expert Analyst Lin Mengjia-如何判断foreign exchange市场的趋势？ 
Foreign exchange transactions中能否稳定盈利，很大程度上取决于投资者对外汇市场趋势的判断。
     外汇走势上升代表着汇价的最高价在上涨，同时带动市场当前货币对整体的汇价上升。 
外汇趋势的波动其本质就是货币对价格的变化，交易者在判断外汇走势的变化时要了解透彻货币对价格变化的因素，进行深入分析。 
一、周期问题周期问题在任何交易市场都是存在的，外汇市场里的周期也是存在的。美国实际利率的变动是左右美元周期的最主要的因素之一，一个国家的股市、债券、房地产的稳定性和可升度也是主宰美元走向的主要因素。 
市场本身就是一个消化预期的工具。例如，市场预期美国加息这个周期过了之后，会开始一个新的周期。作为炒汇者，要解决的首要问题是怎样及时发现市场周期的变化、焦点的变化和主角，以及在那个周期期间如何采取正确的投资策略。因为每个周期期间每个货币的活动能力不同，都是需要一定程度的实战经验。 
二、技术指标判断外汇趋势最常用的手段是技术面分析，凯福德分析师建议最好通过技术指标来判断长期走势。从一个长期的角度来查看外汇市场的交易图表，根据价格的走势来分析，看价格是怎么变动，及促使价格转向的原因。从一个长期的角度出发，价格如果持续走高，或持续走低，这个趋势就很明显了。 
当指数大于50，则上升趋势就足够明显。在外汇市场上，如果指数超过53，可以认为是上升趋势，如果指数在47，则可大胆地认定是下降趋势。如果变动不明显，建议先观察再做决定。
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