The state of near full employment in the United States

Huitong Network3month5Daily News - Beijing Time3month10day(Friday)21:30To be announced in the United States2The monthly non farm payroll report will be the last heavyweight data report from the Federal Reserve before its next monetary policy meeting. Can this non farm payroll report become the Federal Reserve3Is the monthly interest rate hike a fatal event or a stumbling block?

★★★ In a state close to full employment, non-agricultural sectors should pay more attention to salary growth ★★★ Based on current market expectations, according to a Bloomberg survey80The expectation drawn by economists is that the United States is expected to2The monthly increase in employment will be19Ten thousand people, lower than last month's22.7Ten thousand people. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate will be higher than last month's4.8%decline0.1%to4.7%。
Justforeign exchangeIn terms of market performance, since2016Since the fourth quarter of this year, whenever non-agricultural data is released, the market's first reaction seems to be in a confusion of ups and downs. Although there will be a choice of direction later, the market always lacks obvious highlights within a few minutes after the data is released.

Perhaps the reason for this is that, with the United States approaching full employment, the unemployment rate has been continuous16Stable for months4.6%-5.0%Within the range of. For the number of new employment, excluding seasonal reasons, the overall changes are relatively stable.

So, in the current situation, is the non-agricultural report not important anymore? The editor of Huitong believes that this is not the case. At present, we should shift our attention from unemployment rate and new employment to wage growth rate.

The current market expectation is that the United States2The monthly average hourly wage will increase year-on-year2.8%, will increase month on month0.3%All are better than the previous values and are expected to continue to show an upward trend. If wages can continue to accelerate upwards, it will further boost future inflation expectations in the United States. Against the backdrop of global inflation recovery and the possibility of significant infrastructure and tax cuts by the Trump administration in the United States, an increase in inflation will only accelerate the pace of tightening policy by the Federal Reserve.
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