EFS-Pay attention to Yellen's guidance on the council meeting

Next week, Federal Reserve officials will enter a period of silence before the interest rate meeting. This week, they will focus on speeches, and most officials have expressed their support for the meeting3The support of interest rate hikes at the monthly meeting has also promptedUSD IndexThe recent strong rebound. Tonight, early tomorrow morning Beijing time2Point, Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen will give his final speech, expressing his position on the direction of monetary policy support for subsequent meetings. From the analysis of basic economic data, the probability of interest rate hikes in this meeting is very high, and even market expectations have been reached80%The probability is high, so even if interest rates are raised later, the impact on the market should be limited and has already been digested in the current stage of speculation. At present, it is important to guard against the uncertainty of the Eurozone elections, such as increased risk, which may also affect the probability of the Federal Reserve meeting reducing interest rate hikes. However, based on recent investigations into French candidates, the probability of taking office has decreased, which reduces the potential risks of Brexit in the future and helps to cool down the risks of Eurozone elections. Overall analysis,3The probability of a monthly interest rate hike is high, and the impact is gradually being digested before the hike. The strength of the US dollar is expected to remain strong until around the interest rate meeting, and then it will begin to return to the pace of adjustment after the news is released.
The unemployment rate andCPIThere are signs of improvement in the data, which supports the subsequent strengthening of the Japanese yen. Recently, the yen has been mainly affected by the strengthening of the US dollar and has performed weakly, but still stronger than other non US varieties.

In terms of specific technical aspects,USD IndexThe daily structure continued to rise yesterday, breaking through102The resistance range, the next target position is at the neck line102.5Nearby, if the resistance does not break, the US dollar will continue to rebound and is expected to continue entering the rhythm of adjustment in the future; And if we break through102.5The resistance needs to be adjusted in structural judgment, and it is expected to reach a new high in the near future. Judging the timing of the interest rate meeting based on fundamental aspects,102.5The position of short resistance is not safe.

After closing at a low level yesterday, the daily structure of the euro against the US dollar has at least a requirement for inertial decline today. Short term short selling is allowed, and the specific entry position can be dynamic5Daily moving average1.0530frontline,1.0570Stop loss,1.0450Stop surplus.

The daily structure of the pound against the US dollar continued to decline and consolidate yesterday, but has not yet reached a lower level of support, and there is also a demand for further decline due to the strengthening of the US dollar. Short term rebound testing dynamics5Daily moving average1.2290You can try short selling in light positions nearby,1.2330Stop loss, below1.2200Reduce positions,1.2150Departure.

In terms of the Japanese yen, supported by strong economic data, it is generally strong. However, due to the strong rebound of the US dollar, it is unfavorable to operate against the Japanese yen. Compared to other non US varieties, it is relatively strong. Therefore, it is possible to choose the cross selling operation of the Japanese yen. The specific form of the pound against the Japanese yen is still clear and can continue to be at the current resistance level140.4Short selling operations nearby,141.5Stop loss.

The weekly structure of the US dollar against the Canadian dollar has started testing the resistance level above, with specific strong resistance in place1.3540Therefore, in the near future, we can only observe this variety. If we break through the strong resistance above, we will adjust our previous analysis and judgment.

New York dollar to US dollar4The hour structure is already in placeCThe sub waves of the waves5The final decline stage indicates that the previous short orders have left the market and have now entered the support range. Small structures are also in the final decline stage, at the bottom of the range0.7035Try doing multiple operations,0.7010Stop loss. Due to the reverse trend operation, we can wait for testing0.7035Support withdrawal1Choosing the bottom form at the hour level for entry is safer. Radicals can also enter the market after testing for support, and as there is not much room for stop loss, they can try to operate.

EFS  Analyst: Chen Yunbo