Huang Yijin: Trump's Speech is Reliable, Gold and SilverTDWaiting for inflation announcement

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Yesterday（2month28Day)goldHigh level decline approaching15The US dollar hit its lowest point during the session in the US market1247.47dollar/Ounces. The market is holding its breath as it waits for Trump's first congressional speech today, while the Federal Reserve3The probability of monthly interest rate hikes breaking through70%Gold hit its largest drop in a week, breaking through200Daily moving average. It is worth noting that the market's expectation of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates continues to rapidly heat up,3Monthly interest rate hikes have risen from "impossible" to almost "guaranteed". Yesterday, the third ranking official of the Federal Reserve, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said in an interview that the reasons for raising interest rates are becoming increasingly stronger. After the speech, the market expected this year3The probability of monthly interest rate hikes rising or falling70%. In the past two years, the market expects the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates at its next meeting to exceed70%The situation occurred twice, which was expected2015year12Monthly meetings and2016year12At the monthly meeting, the Federal Reserve did indeed announce interest rate hikes after those two meetings.


Overall, Trump's speech this time is still too cautious, and he is still evasive in terms of market focus. As a result, the US dollar has retreated from its previous gains, while gold has partially fallen before recovering, but still under pressure1250Below.

Technical analysis of gold:


Gold prices have surged twice in a row200Daily moving average obstructed, short-term lost5Daily moving average, multiple technical indicators provide callback signals, with significant short-term variables, currently under testing1240The support near the US dollar, once this level effectively falls below, gold prices may restart their decline. Currently, we are focusing on the Bollinger offline track1240Support near the US dollar, with strong support located at1Month high point1220Near the US dollar; if1240US dollar support is effective, but there is still a chance for gold prices to rise200Daily moving average1260The resistance near the US dollar has increased in difficulty in breaking through. Trend0.618Golden Section1225The development of the US dollar price may not reach the target soon, but the trend is expected to be within1225-1260Turbulent within the interval;1250The US dollar has become a breakthrough point for its rise and also a resistance level; So the author suggests that the focus should be on high altitude in the evening, and pay attention below1240Support, if you fall below, continue to look1236-1235, rebounding and stabilizing1250Going back and bullish again;




Golden Operation Strategy:


　　1246Nearby buy down, stop loss1251, Objective1238, falling below holding;