Vantage FXWanzhi: AUD to USD3month1Analysis and Trend Forecast of Foreign Exchange Trading in Japanese Investment Banks

　Deng Fute:
AUD/The rapid pullback of the US dollar along the medium-term horizontal range has hindered the further expansion of recent gains, and the turbulence in the Australian dollar's medium-term continues. From the hourly chart trend, the Australian dollar/The US dollar broke through directly on the previous trading day2month24The downward trend of the adjustment range in recent days has continued the short-term weakness. Focus on the strength and magnitude of the rebound of the Australian dollar within the day, and it is expected that after continuous adjustments, the Australian dollar will further decline0.7620. Short term resistance0.7700, support0.7620。
　　TeleTrade：
AUD/The US dollar continued to fluctuate and fall, hitting a one week low0.7646Affected by the rebound of the US dollar, investors tended to be cautious before President Trump's congressional speech on Wednesday. The fourth quarter of Australia announced during the Asian market todayGDPQuarterly growth rate1.1%, better than the previous decline in value0.5%Increase in estimated value0.7%;Annual growth rate2.4%Better than previous value growth1.8%Increase in estimated value1.9%Double better than expected results helped the Australian dollar recover from its daily low0.7636Rapid lifting30Point. And the subsequent announcement of China2Monthly official manufacturingPMIThe data is also better than expected, and we will pay attention to Caixin Manufacturing laterPMIThe index and Trump's speech in Congress are expected to cause significant fluctuations in the exchange rate. Pay attention to the performance of a series of US data during the New York period.
Key resistance:0.7680/0.7710/0.7740
Key support:0.7630/0.7600/0.7580
Technically speaking, the exchange rate has been fluctuating and falling for the third consecutive day, reaching a one week low. Today, the exchange rate in Asia has rebounded slightly after bottoming out and is currently in a volatile trend. However, currently the daily chart and4The kinetic energy indicators on the hourly chart are all bearish. If tested0.7680Defeated resistance may fall back to daily lows0.7630and0.76On the contrary, if the above resistance levels are broken through, it is expected to point towards0.7690and0.7710Above is the0.7740。
Qiniu International:
　　4On the hourly chart, AUD/The US dollar fell to a two-week low in early trading today due to the strengthening of the US index0.7635However, in AustraliaGDPBoosted by data, the Australian dollar stopped its decline, while the Australian dollar/The US dollar touched twice before0.7732At a high level, the exchange rate is currently in a downward trend, but due to strong buying in the Australian dollar, it is estimated that there will not be a significant decline, and the long-term prospects are unclear.
　　5On the minute chart, AUD/The US dollar experienced a short-term decline in early trading50Slight rebound after remaining points20Point, currently experiencing another downward trend, the short-term outlook for the exchange rate is bearish and can be shorted.
　　FX168：
AUD/From a technical perspective, the US dollar has made no progress in this currency pair, ending at its starting position this month with a limited trading range. Since the beginning of this week, the upward potential seems limited due to4On the hourly chart, the exchange rate is20The mild bearish moving average continued to be suppressed by selling interest, while technical indicators failed to surpass the central axis and instead fell, but remained above the previous low. This currency is from0.7660The region is steadily rebounding, which is the current support, but it needs to be clear that the downward trend will continue until0.7600Only below can we confirm that it will continue to steadily decline in the coming days.
Support position:0.7660 0.7620 0.7570
Resistance level:0.7710 0.7740 0.7770
Dahua Bank:
AUD/US dollar: bullish turning to neutral, pullback or bearish0.7605. The bullish phase of the Australian dollar a month ago has come to an end due to its previous day's movement0.7660Below. Last Thursday's high point0.7741Form a short-term top. The current retreat of the Australian dollar from its high point seems to have further weakened0.7605/10, and even0.7570The space. At present, any decline in the Australian dollar will be seen as a correction pullback and is not expected to continue to weaken. The current resistance level is0.7710The Australian dollar must move to0.7740Above indicates the current short-term weakness and stability.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Although the market is mainly focused on the direction of the US economy, the re inflation of currency in the Asia Pacific region, especially in Australia, is also beginning to have an impact on the market. This round of Asia Pacific inflation is caused by China.1In the month of, China's import volume from other countries in the world increased year-on-year16.7%, for2013The fastest growth since the beginning of the year. Despite market warnings that the Chinese New Year should be taken into account when analyzing these numbers, it is evident that China's import demand has unexpectedly increased. The main imported products added by China are minerals and agricultural products. This has led to an increase in international commodity prices and trading volume. Looking ahead, our economists believe that,2017In the middle of the year, China's import volume may decrease.
Raise the short-term forecast for the Australian dollar and maintain the medium-term bearish forecast for the Australian dollar unchanged. Although the resurgence of China led international trade has led us to raise our short-term forecast for the Australian dollar, we believe that the Australian dollar will continue to rise in the next month/The US dollar will maintain its current exchange rate level unchanged.2017In the middle of the year, the slowdown in Chinese real estate investment may once again trigger the Australian dollar/The depreciation of the US dollar.
Vantage FXAnalysis of Wanzhi's viewpoint:
　　AUD/USD
Support 0.7600 0.7510 resistance 0.7700 0.7760
Yesterday we pointed out that after recent fluctuations, the risk of the Australian dollar's decline is gradually increasing, especially if it cannot break through the upper limit for a long time0.7760In this case, investors need to be cautious of the risk of a pullback in the Australian dollar.Despite the significant strengthening of the US dollar yesterday, the Australian dollar also fell below its recent upward trend and gradually entered the support range below. Today, under the influence of economic data and Trump's speech, the volatility may intensify. At present, it is a judgment0.76-0.77The interval will become a new oscillation zone, only below the breakthrough0.76It is possible to see a significant downward correction trend only after that, and the lower targets are0.7510;The first position above is0.7700The resistance, if broken further above, is0.7760The high point of.

Event discussion:

Time Importance Index Content Pre Value(Before correction)Detailed explanation of predicted value published values

20:30U.S.A2Monthly Challenger Enterprise Layoffs(the annual rate)-38.8%Waiting

U.S.A2Monthly Challenger Enterprise Layoffs(Monthly rate)+36.6%Waiting

21:30Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States after last week's quarterly adjustment(ten thousand people)(to0225)24.424.5Waiting

21:30Four week average of initial jobless claims in the United States after last week's quarterly adjustment(ten thousand people)(to0225)24.1Waiting

Last week's quarterly survey in the United States followed up on the number of claims for unemployment benefits(to0218)206.0Waiting

22:45Bloomberg Consumer Confidence Index for the Week in the United States(to0226)48Waiting

23:30Last week in the United StatesEIAChanges in natural gas inventory(Billion cubic feet)(to0224)-890Waiting

Focus:Vantage FXWanzhi: Resistance level at AUD/NZD, with worrying outlook（https://www.vantagefx.cn/market-analysis/17030102/）
　　

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